Thursday Night NFC East Showdown: Cowboys vs. Giants
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog:
Taking The NFL’s Temperature: You didn’t have to get slaughtered in Survivor with every employee in the mailroom this Sunday to know things went sideways leaguewide. No favorite, home team, or late lead was safe. By the time dust settled, chaos had spread across the land.
Busting out my digital shovel, I dug through Trumedia for any interesting betting trend data through 48 games played.
Home Teams, 21.8 PPG (24-24):
Favored x35, Covered x15, 42.9% Cover Rate
Underdog x13, Covered x5, 38.5% Cover Rate
Away Teams, 20.5 PPG (24-24):
Favored x13, Covered x7, 53.8% Cover Rate
Underdog x35, Covered x19, 54.3% Cover Rate
On its surface, it appears the recent suppression in this new deadball era completely leveled the playing field in terms of being home or away, the original indicator. This feels like a weird broad brush to wield so early but any spread of a touchdown or greater has been a misprice.
Don’t believe me? Check out this tweet from Ben Fawkes. Wow!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Running Against The Wind
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
Running Against The Wind 🏃🏽♂️🏈—Singletary Going The Distance
Thursday Night Football between (1-2) division rival Cowboys and Giants … what better way to kickoff the weekend? Neither team has exactly inspired their fanbases, but you know one thing for sure. The alarms are sounding in the Lone Star state over the Dallas defense, particularly when it comes to stopping the run for standing out in all the wrong ways (stats by TruMedia):
29.7 Points Allowed Per Game, 30th
6.0 Yards Allowed Per Play, 27th
-0.08 EPA/Play, 28th
-0.20 Defensive EPA/Rush, Last
47.9% Defensive Rush Success Rate, Last
185.7 Rush Yards Allowed Per Game, Last
5.4 Yards Per Rush, Last
2.27 Yards Before Contact Per Rush, 31st
8 Rush TD, Last
The public has decided to hold off hitting the eject button on this Giants season after beating the Browns in a real slop-fest. That said, outside of Malik Nabers. Big Blue lacks explosivity and will need RB production to establish their pace and keep the ball out of Dak’s hands.
Enter Devin Singletary, New York’s workhorse back with the fifth-highest backfield touch rate this season and ninth-most scrimmage yards over the last two weeks, according to TruMedia. We’ve also seen increased involvement translate into top-tier production as the free agent find melds into the Daboll scheme (below).
As much as I like Singletary’s rush prop, I shifted toward total rushing plus receiving yards since he’s still nearly a TD underdog. If Dallas bounces back on offense and the game script goes negative, we’ll be afforded a late backdoor in the passing game—Singletary has earned +10% of the Giants’ target share.
THE BET: Over 79.5 Receiving+Rush Yards (-110) BetMGM
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TNF Sharps Have a Favorite Play: Cowboys at Giants
Presented by Sharp Hunter
By Mike Mutnansky of Sharp Hunter
Week 4 in the NFL gives America ANOTHER chance to watch Dak Prescott in prime time as the Giants host the Cowboys.
As of Thursday morning, Dallas is between a 5.5 and 6-point road favorite, depending on where you're betting.
The sharps we track at Sharp Hunter jumped all over the Cowboys when they between 4 and 4.5-point favorites earlier in the week. I wish I had done the same. Too much fall yard work and not enough paying attention to the Sharps: They've been good at picking out early-week lines.
The sharps are still betting Dak Prescott and Co., and as of Thursday morning we're showing a One-Bag Sharp Score on Dallas -5.5.
I'll agree with the Sharps and say that I still think there are some reasons to play the Cowboys up to -6. Sure, Dallas has the 32nd-ranked DVOA run defense in the NFL, but journeyman Devin Singletary seems unlikely to take advantage.
On the other side, the Giants’ secondary is banged up. Slot corner Dru Phillips and veteran outside cornerback Adoree’ Jackson will both miss the game with calf injuries. That should allow Dak to cook.
This is a bad spot for the Giants—from the Action Network, since 2003, teams coming off a straight-up win as dogs on short rest the next week are just 94-125-10 ATS (42.9%).
Our Sharps jumped in early this week and got a good price. I'm with them on Dallas anywhere up to -6, but I wish I had jumped in earlier!
Track all NFL bets for every week of the season as well as futures with our free NFL Bet Tracker!
Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Friars’ Time
With such an abbreviated schedule tonight (good time to touch some grass), I turned my attention to the MLB futures market. It's funny how the littlest change from year to year can create a butterfly effect. Just 12 months ago, the Padres spent October planning family vacations despite a heroic late run, after going an unbelievable 9-23 in one-run games. If I remember correctly, SD also lost its first 12 extra-inning games before finally chopping that tree down in game 159.
You don’t have to believe in teams of destiny, just in the pendulum’s swing—and there was no better case than Tuesday night. Up two runs on the road in Hollywood, the Dodgers put the first two men on base. Then, Miguel Rojas ripped a grounder right down the line at Manny Machado, who promptly spun it around the horn for a playoff-berth-clinching triple play! Wow!
It’s not about one play or even a vibe so much as getting healthy and adding premier pieces as other competitors (Dodgers … cough, cough) scramble for answers. Joe Musgrove and Fernando Tatis came back at peak powers to help propel what I see as perhaps the best-balanced team in the National League.
What succeeds in the MLB playoffs?
Power Starting Pitchers—Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, Michael King, Yu Darvish. Check. ✅
Strong Offense—Padres finished 1st in BA and K%, Top-5 in OBP, OPS, wOBA, wRC+. Check. ✅
Live Bullpen—Top-3 in K-BB% and fewest Losses. Check. ✅
Of course, I’m not expecting a cakewalk. There are no easy paths through the playoffs—but the other NL teams have glaring issues and I love the pricing. Let’s go Friar Tucks!
THE BET: San Diego Padres To Win NL Pennant (+550) DraftKings Sportsbook
Be sure to follow along with my MLB prop bets with our Free MLB bets tracker!
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🏈 Geoff Ulrich drops his Thursday Night Football best bets for Cowboys vs. Giants.
🧐 Matthew Freedman presents his Week 4 Bets that he’s targeting, starting out asking whether Dak Prescott can continue his NFC East dominance.
📺 Claudia and Thor break down the College Football Week 5 Best Bets, Player Props, and More!
👀 Still want more College Football betting? Thor delivers his Week 5 CFB Best Bets and Props.
🔮 Our team of Fantasy Life experts uncover the winners for all 16 games with their Week 4 NFL Pool Picks.
