In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Buy Low (Sell High). Buy (good) assets when they have depreciated and no one wants them. Sell an asset when it has become overvalued, too risky, or there is a melt-up in demand. It’s market management 101.
Is anyone selling high on Jayden Daniels after his 21-of-23, 254-yard MNF coming-out party with 39 rushing yards and 3 total TDs? Or Josh Allen after he laid waste to the Jaguars with 263 yards and 4 passing TDs? Sometimes it’s best just to hold.
Still, as humans we are blessed with a brain that consistently tricks us into being overly pessimistic (doomsayers) when things go poorly, and overly optimistic (FOMO) when things go right. This means that for the majority of the human population, this old adage ends up being incredibly hard to put into practice, regardless of how easy it sounds in practice.
NFL betting is no different. Last week, spread bets on the Buccaneers, Raiders, and Saints ranked first, second, and third at DraftKings Sportsbook in the amount of total handle (money wagered) for the week. All three of them failed to cover and lost outright.
On the flip side of those games, teams like the Panthers, Eagles, and Broncos, who were all coming off losses, received very little attention from bettors. One or two bad weeks had driven these once-respectable teams into becoming “uninvestable assets,” despite being available at more attractive valuations.
Look, timing markets is never easy, regardless of what you are trading, but one thing I can guarantee you is that if you write off a team (or asset) completely just because of one or two bad weeks, you will end up missing out on some really great opportunities down the road. Luckily, we have tools in our FantasyLife+ product, like our Game Model and Player Projections, which can help you identify undervalued assets and make better decisions.
For today, I’ll be using our NFL Futures Betting Tool to find the best prices on my current favorite “buy low” teams in the NFL futures markets, which you can read about below.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
Buy Low, Sell High: How to approach Packers futures going into a huge division game
NHL Futures Watch: Can the Great 8 make history (and cash some big futures in the process)?
Buy Low, Sell High📈📉—The Packers Can Deliver Outsized Returns
by Geoff Ulrich
Week 3 delivered a ton of surprising results, one of which was the Packers going into Tennessee as +3.0 underdogs and completely dismantling the Titans 30-14—who many sharp bettors had sided with before this game.
The Packers now sit at 2-1, tied with Detroit and one game behind the Vikings. They have yet to play a division game, although that changes this week as they’ll host the Vikings. The other big news for the Packers is that this week they are likely to get back their franchise QB Jordan Love, who missed two games with a sprained knee.
It’s easy to forget, but with Love this team was dominant at points in 2023. They finished 6-2 over their last 8 regular-season games, beating the Chiefs and Lions during that stretch. Love himself was 2nd in EPA per play at QB over his last 6 games and finished second in TD passes.
This year, they’re also showing signs of having an elite defense. The Packers allowed a few big plays in their season opener in Brazil (on a suspect field), but have ceded just 24 points over their last two games combined and now rank 9th in EPA per play on defense and 6th in EPA against the run.
Futures Bets: Time to Double (or Triple) Dip on the Cheeseheads
Green Bay has a showdown looming with undefeated Minnesota this week, and I’ve already taken them at -2.0 in our Free Bet Tracker. Nothing against Sam Darnold and Kevin O’Connell, but the Vikings’ love is also starting to get frothy. Much like Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr in Week 3, Darnold’s efficiency stats are likely to regress at some point (potentially hard), and their defense, which allowed 319 yards and 9.0 yards per attempt to Brock Purdy in Week 3, has shown it can be had by QBs who get adequate protection and can deliver accurate passes in the face of pressure (note: Love completed 60% of his passes under pressure from Week 14 on last year, 6th best in the NFL).
As much as I like the Packers to deliver some comeuppance to their division rival this is also the perfect time to take an even bigger swing with Green Bay in the futures market. Bettors are still somewhat lukewarm on Green Bay given the fact we have yet to see Love play a complete game (and the fact everyone is bullish on Minnesota). After starting the season around +1600, the Packers’ Super Bowl odds have ballooned to as big as +2400 (FanDuel), while their odds to win the division can be had as big as +340 (DraftKings).
The dip in price for Green Bay after Love got hurt was warranted, but he’s already practiced in full and seems very likely to play this week. The Packers have also held serve with the Lions, who are also 2-1 and haven’t looked dominant to start the season. In short, if you liked Green Bay before the year at +1600, you should feel even better about taking them at +2400 given their current standing.
I’d also add that while the Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell is now the favorite to win Coach of the Year at +320 (bet365), Matt LaFleur, who is now 2-0 with a backup QB, can be had at +1000. He’s likely to be tied or potentially even have shorter odds than O’Connell in this award category if the Packers win this Sunday in somewhat dominant fashion.
The Bet(s): Packers Super Bowl (+2400; FanDuel); Matt LaFleur COY (+1000; bet365); Packers to win NFC North (+340; DraftKings)
As I mentioned off the top, I've already taken a piece of the Packers for this Sunday but will be spreading some exposure on them across the futures market as well. They fully control their destiny with all 8 division games remaining and have shown they don’t necessarily need elite QB play to win games this year.
Worst-case scenario, they lose to the Vikings in Week 4 and will need to make up ground later in the season to pay off one or more of these bets—tough, but still doable. However, if they win, we’ll surely have gained some great value on lines that will be much shorter with Green Bay 3-1 and already having a win over one of the chief rivals in their division.
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NHL Futures—Can Alex Ovechkin Make History?
by Geoff Ulrich
At Fantasy Life we don’t just bet Football. The NHL season is approaching and I’ve been diving into some NHL Fantasy content, as well as pursuing the NHL Futures markets on days off from the NFL.
Much like the NFL, where we can take players to hit season-long milestones for yards and TDs, in the NHL you can bet on players to hit milestones for goals and points. I’ve already put in a few of these bets into our FREE NHL Bet Tracker and today I thought I’d highlight my current favorite:
Alex Ovechkin 40+ goals (+850; bet365)
Alex Ovechkin to Record 895th Career Goal During 2024-25 Regular Season (+1000; DraftKings)
In case you don’t follow hockey, Ovechkin is currently chasing Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record of 894 goals. He currently sits 41 goals behind Gretzky, so will need 42 more goals to break this record. As of now you can either take Ovechkin to score 40+ goals at +850 on bet365 (10.5% IP) or +1000 on DraftKings (9.09% IP) for Ovechkin to score 42 goals—and break the record.
I like both bets, although if I had access to both books and was choosing one I would just take the +1000 on DraftKings for him to break the record.
Can Ovechkin Make History?
Ovechkin is entering his age-39 season and has seen a decline in scoring recently, which is not shocking considering his age. He recorded a career-low 0.39 goals last season, recording just 31 goals in 79 games. While the pace is concerning, Ovechkin also finished last year very strong, recording 23 goals over his last 36 games, which works out to a 52-goal pace over a full season.
Ovechkin also didn’t start last year expecting to break Gretzky’s record, and was fully focused on helping the Capitals make the playoffs, which they did. This year will be a little different as Ovechkin, thanks to his fast finish in 2023-24, is now well within striking distance of this record.
Add in the fact that Washington has added names like Jakob Chychrun and Pierre-Luc Dubois to the mix for 2024-25 and the Capitals’ offense could be in line to outperform as a whole, with Ovechkin specifically benefiting from less-primary coverage.
Bottom line, while this bet is far from a guarantee I think the true odds of Ovechkin scoring 42 goals this year are better than the 9.09% implied probability we’re getting on the +1000 line available on DraftKings. Yes, he’s on the decline but he also has improved linemates, an organization that will support his run at the record (above all else), and a huge motivational carrot to start the season with—that he didn’t have last year.
Check out our free NHL Futures Betting Odds.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🧐 Dwain McFarland released his Week 4 Utilization Report, which could be just the edge you need in the prop market.
📈 Who is rising and who is falling in Thor Nystrom’s power rankings going into Week 5?
💰 From $250 —>$117K. One bettor feasted on a massive parlay payday on Monday Night. And it was all thanks to a Ja’Marr Chase first TD.
🏈 Time to start looking at some receiving props for Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.
😔 There is a troubling trend happening for Trevor Lawrence.
