In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:

Division Table’s Set: Well … that was uninspiring.

2024’s Wild Card Round is finally relegated to the history books. Regardless of how much last night’s sopping-wet blanket underwhelmed, everyone gets a fresh reset. Winners move on for a shot at glory while the losers set up those early tee times.

What started out this summer as 32 buildings bursting with hope is suddenly reduced by 75 percent. Who will eventually take home the crown? If Round 1 was any indication, it’s the coach with the cajones to play to win rather than not to lose.

Monday’s Final: Rams 27, Vikings 9: Purple people eaten.

For many of us who watched Sam Darnold sling it all year on his way to 14 wins, there could only be one direction to go after that Week 18 Lions debacle, right? RIGHT? Sad to say for Vikings faithful, the answer to that is a resounding, no. Talk about an expensive two-game collapse … sheesh. For the last couple of games, Darnold looked more like the guy getting run out of New York than a championship contender—or even just a right answer going forward. Completing a measly 53% of passes for only 411 combined yards, the former third-overall pick held onto the ball forever, taking 11 sacks on his way to posting a staggering -0.44 EPA/dropback—spurning calls for backup Nick Mullens from the stands. The poor play even seemed to throttle Kevin O’Connell’s game plan down the stretch, deciding to run the ball down three scores. Yikes. 

Where will Darnold land? We have some ideas! But the Rams find themselves headed to Philly!

Remember, we got you covered year-round. Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME MODEL

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • NFL Playoffs: Tuesday Divisional Blitz
  • The New York Prop Exchange: Safety Blanket

The Show Goes On …

Divisional Round Guilloteenie Contests are LIVE.

LEARN MORE

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🪓 Did you get chopped? New Guilloteenies are ready for the Divisional Round.

🪃 Biggest takeaways from the Wild Card round … Are the Texans back ??

🔎 “What I got wrong this year” is my favorite fantasy lookback exercise.

🎧 A Jake Trowbridge podcast??! YES PLEASE!

🐏 Great thread on Reddit: What happened to Cooper Kupp?

🏆 Lauren Betts is quietly having a monster season for UCLA—and is +5000 for the Wooden Award. Just wanted to share!

📈 Actually here’s her stats page—UCLA is routing teams so she’s not even playing a ton of minutes every night.

NFL Playoffs🏈💥—Tuesday Divisional Blitz

No. 4 Texans (10-7) at No. 1 Chiefs (15-2)

Sat. Jan. 18, 4:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Chiefs -7.5 (-110; DraftKings)

Total: O/U 42.5

Appetizers are off the table and it’s finally time to feast on the good stuff. Let’s go! Kansas City’s got to be chomping at the bit to finally get back on the field after two weeks off to defend its ongoing back-to-back title run. I doubt Andy Reid cared who came out of the Wild Card round—his Chiefs as a touchdown favorite at Arrowhead was always a predetermined destiny.

All things considered, Houston looked decent versus Los Angeles in the Wild Card game—but I can’t get that cart fully in front of the horse. Last week’s game was a tale of two halves, easily lost in a boxscore fog if you didn’t see it unfold yourself. Through two quarters, Houston scored just 10 points on a dreadful 39.4% success rate and -0.17 EPA/play.  For reference and some much-needed perspective, that would’ve ranked tied for last with the Cleveland Browns. 

Sure, business picked up for the Texans in the second half once Justin Herbert forgot which jerseys to throw the ball to. However, by that point Houston already started steering directly into clock management mode, running the ball at an insane 70% clip. Ask yourself, what are the chances that game script re-racks? My guess lands between slim and none. If forced to throw in a rather likely scenario, will a repeat of C.J. Stroud’s 33% passes to the sticks on a 91 passer rating get the job done? Once again, I have my doubts.

In their Week 16 matchup (KC 27, HOU 19), Reid did what’s always made him so successful at the highest level—be like water. Consistently understanding the assignment, he’s willing to adapt with extreme schematic malleability. I mean, you don’t coach your way to three Super Bowls for nothing, even if you do have Patrick Mahomes under center. Reid knew the Texans’ rallying point on defense revolved around interior pressure both on the QB and in stopping the run—so the big man zigged when DeMeco Ryans zagged. The Chiefs departed from their 10-week, run-heavy approach to call dropbacks on more than two-thirds of offensive plays, with 80% (!) coming out of the shotgun—a season high at the time.

So, as always, it comes down to the man, the myth, the legend Mahomes. Eighteen games into his playoff career, the red-and-yellow GOAT is an incredible 15-3 on the back of a 105.8 passer rating plus over 5,100 yards and an astounding 41 TD to just 8 INT. Wow. And that fails to mention how Kansas City reconfigured its identity post-Tyreek Hill to play top-flight defense, creating the perfect complement to an offense operating a half-step slower than in those early years. This Chris Jones and Nick Bolton-led defense ranks among the best Chiefs unit in recent history, and we all know how that turned out last year.

As much as I love Stroud and believe we’ve only seen the beginning from these Texans, I also think the deficiencies on the O-line will prove insurmountable against a team like Sauron’s army, bred for a single purpose. LEAN: KC -7.5

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND BEST BETS

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Safety Blanket

THE BET: Travis Kelce O 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110) DraftKings

Ah, the great combinations of our times. Spaghetti and meatballs, peanut butter and jelly, rock and roll ... and Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce. A tale as old as time at this point, there’s not much to this handicap if you’ve been watching Chiefs’ football for the better part of the last decade.

Through their 18 playoff games together, Kelce’s stat line is akin to one of the great pass-catching seasons of all time—142 catches for 1,609 yards and 18 TDs (!) is enough to make most Hall of Famers blush. No shame in Mahomes’ game here, either, people. When the going gets tough, the tough make a beeline for their security blanket. Kelce’s averages would jump off the page for a star wide receiver, let alone a tight end …

  • 38.2 Routes Run Per Game
  • 9.6 Targets Per Game
  • 26.7% Team Target Share
  • 25.1% Target Per Route Run
  • 7.9 Receptions Per Game
  • 89.4 Receiving Yards Per Game
  • 2.34 Yards Per Route Run
  • 4.7 Yards After Catch Per Reception
  • 68.5 Air Yards Per Game

Kelce’s role is ingrained into the offense regardless of game script and you can fully expect all of his prop lines to push northward all the way up to game time.

Make sure to check out our Player Projections to compare.

NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYER PROPS

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!