If you’ve never heard or seen former FS1 and current TSN broadcaster Jay Onrait’s bit on Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky you should. It’s hilarious; even though most of the time it’s just him shouting “BO-BROV-SKY!”.

Bobrovsky’s name may be fun, but right now he’s no laughing matter for the Oilers. The 35-year-old stopped all 32 shots he faced in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals and has a .952 SV% over his last four games. In Game 1, he also posted a whopping 5.61 goals saved above expected mark. 

The good news for the Oilers is that outside of Bobrovsky’s otherworldly performance, Edmonton outplayed Florida in most areas. They recorded 13 High Danger Scoring Chances to the Panthers’ six and dominated the game at even strength, recording a 62.16 xGF% when the teams were at 5v5. The issue for Edmonton now is being able to repeat that dominance, and also finding a way to beat Bobrovsky — who has only gotten stronger as the playoffs have gone on.

I’ve broken down a couple of different angles for how to play Game 2 below, including an Oilers Goal Prop that plays on the idea that we’ll likely see a little positive regression from their shooters.

Picks for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 2

Edmonton Oilers over 0.5 Goals - First Period (-125; BetMGM)

The Oilers are an offensive dynamo who had plenty of great opportunities to score in Game 1, including a called-back goal (that likely should have counted). Via Moneypuck.com, four of their players posted expected goal rates above 0.80, and as mentioned above they vastly out-chanced the Panthers in quality scoring opportunities.

I’m not expecting Edmonton to score off the opening faceoff, but I’m also not expecting this goalless drought to last very much longer. The Oilers have been down a game multiple times in the playoffs and in both instances have bounced back with wins that included them scoring at least one goal in the first period. The -125 available on BetMGM also offers a significant discount over other shops, that have this bet as low as -140.

Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal Scorer (+185; FanDuel)

The Oilers centre has slowed down from his torrid opening pace to these playoffs and comes in with just one goal over his last six games. His shot volume in Round 3 was concerning, but he attempted six shots in Game 1 and landed four on the net, both milestones he failed to reach in any game against the Stars.

We also saw Leon Draisaitl play alongside Connor McDavid for larger portions of Game 1 and while the two may not start Game 2 together certainly the willingness by head coach Chris Knoblauch to combine the two is there. We can debate whether or not this is the best move for the Oilers in the long run but certainly, any extra time spent on McDavid’s wing at even strength will add to Draisaitl’s upside.

We’ve seen the German go off as low as +110 in this market recently so the move up to +185 certainly feels like a decent spot to buy in. Draisaitl has been crucial to Edmonton’s success all playoffs and if you do like the Oilers to bounce back tonight playing for a Draisaitl goal is one way to bet on that outcome.

Aleksander Barkov Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110; bet365)

Aleksander Barkov only attempted three shots on net in Game 1 and with him matching up against McDavid, I’m not sure I’d expect his volume to change much in Game 2. The Panthers center isn’t a regular high-volume shooter to begin with although he has registered a few big games in this category in the playoffs.

Still, over his last seven starts, he’s been under this total in seven of them and he’s attempted three or fewer shots in six playoff games to date. The Oilers are also somewhat underrated defensively, as they’ve allowed just 24.9 shots against per game to date. All in all, I don't expect the Panthers' strategy to change much going into Game 2. They’ll likely be happy to play a closer game and take few risks, meaning Barkov should remain in a more defensive role and likely has a better-than-average shot of going under on this SOG total once again.

Underdog NHL Pick’em for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 2

  • 3-way; 6.27x Multiplier

I like the fact we can play Bobrovsky’s HIGHER for first period goals allowed, as that allows us to play the first-period angle I mentioned above. Building off of that, we can also use the Draisaitl goal prop to give us some solid correlation and still give us some room for error if the Oilers center doesn’t open the scoring in the first period.

Underdog NHL Pick’em

You could certainly build this ticket out to be a 4 or 5-way by adding in an Evan Bouchard assist HIGHER (which correlates with Draisaitl scoring) but I also like just closing it off with our Barkov LOWER. If the Oilers really bust out on Bobrovsky it’s possible we see Barkov shoot more, but even in that scenario, he’s no lock to go over 2.5 shots given his current hit rate.