The Stanley Cup Final heads back to Edmonton today with the Panthers up 2-0. Edmonton likely deserved to win the first game after they outshot and out-chanced the Panthers but simply got “goalied” by the ageless Sergei Bobrovsky.

Then, the Oilers took a 1-0 lead in Game 2, only to have the Panthers skaters wake up and eventually steal back the lead and also claim another win. Things haven’t fallen the Oilers' way but with hurricanes and heavy winds delaying the Panthers' flight to Edmonton yesterday maybe the odds are shifting in their favor.

With the series shifting to Edmonton, there are also some trends we can take advantage of for betting. I break down those and more below.

Picks for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 3

Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers over 5.5 goals (-104; FanDuel)

So far we have had two tightly contested games that have drifted under on today’s total quite easily on both occasions. However, with the series shifting to Edmonton and the Oilers in a do-or-die situation it does feel like the chance of a shootout is heightened.

The Oilers are 6-2-1 to the over at home in these playoffs and have generally played a more wide-open style of hockey when in Edmonton. That’s also benefited them on the scoreboard as they’re also 6-3 (one OT loss) in these playoffs. The Oilers are the side I’d rather play today but with their moneyline down to -135 the over in this situation is preferred. We’re still getting a very solid price at -105 to take the over and there is a little bit of “sharp money” flowing in that direction this game; DraftKings has taken in 7-8% more handle than bets on the over, as of writing.

Florida also some injury issues to note with Aleksander Barkov being labeled as questionable for this game after taking a semi-dirty hit from Leon Draisaitl (more on him below as well). Regardless of whether he plays or not it’s clear the Panthers' best defensive center may not be 100% and that would be a massive blow to Florida and their chances of slowing down this Edmonton offense for a third game in a row.

I put together a parlay idea that includes the over and Edmonton (as a side) but for straight bets, the better value today looks to be on the over. It’s getting a little more action but still sitting at a better price than we saw it at for Game 1.

Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal Scorer (+160; DraftKings)

We’ll try again with Draisaitl in Game 3, who had his chances in Game 2 but just cannot catch a break in this series. Even on the Oilers' lone goal in Game 2, Draisaitl was wide open down the wing and easily could have been the trigger man for Mattias Ekholm who instead decided to shoot (successfully).

Regardless, the Oilers centre continues to be more aggressive with the puck than he was against Dallas. He fired five pucks toward the net in Game 2 and has only had three of his 11 shot attempts in this series blocked thus far. He’s having more success getting his shot through than he did against the Stars but just hasn’t been able to figure out Bobrovsky just yet.

As I mentioned in the Game 2 writeup, we’ve seen the German go off as low as +110 in this market in the playoffs so even at +160 (he was +185 in Game 2) this again feels like a decent spot to buy in. Just hitting at these odds once every second game is going to give us a nice profit so staying on Draisaitl for one more day – in a game I expect to be higher scoring – is something I’m happy to do.

Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-105; bet365)

One other Oilers trend I’m looking toward in Game 3 is seeing a bit more volume from Oilers winger Zach Hyman, who like Connor McDavid and Draisaitl is still looking for his first goal of this series. Hyman has been a key player for Edmonton all year as his 54 goals led the team and was a career high. He’s another key player I expect could break out in the goal department for Edmonton today but with his price being significantly lower in that market than Draisaitl’s I’d rather chase a bounce back for him in the SOG department.

The winger has attempted just eight shots in this series to date but should get a boost from the venue change. He had some of the largest home/road splits in the league this season in the SOG department, averaging a stout 4.05 shots on net at home (vs just 3.2 on the road). In three home games against Dallas in Round 3, he averaged 5.0 SOG and also managed to go over this mark against Florida in his last two regular season games played against them, in Edmonton.

We don’t want to rely solely on past trends to make all our decisions, obviously, but Hyman’s price is still attractive. He’s been as short as -120 to go over 3.5 shots in the playoffs but his over is still listed as a slight underdog today making it a bet I’m happy to add to today’s card.

Game 3 SGP: Oilers and the Over (+625; bet365)

  • Oilers win in regulation 
  • Over 5.5 goals
  • Draisaitl Anytime Goal Scorer

I’ll be honest, I do think you could be a little more aggressive than this in a same-game parlay, especially if you are taking the Edmonton side today. There is a lot of correlation between an Oilers win and the over in the game hitting along with multiple big games from the Oilers' big stars. Adding in a Hyman goal prop or a multi-point game from McDavid both have appeal, especially with how much the Oilers stars tend to play together at even strength and on the power play. If Barkov does end up sitting I may look to add a bigger play and potentially also boost the total to 6.5 goals.

The +625 SGP listed above is one of the simpler builds I created but gives you a lot more upside potential from a return perspective if you’re playing both the Draisaitl goal prop and the game over. The Oilers have also been far more dominant at home, with all six of their home wins coming in regulation time, and certainly, their odds of winning in 60 minutes again go up with any goal from Draisaitl.

The bottom line, these are decent odds for how well the three legs correlate and a solid way to play for a bigger return today if you (like me) are also bullish on Edmonton and the over.