Last year, Travis Kelce had the least efficient season of his career (8.1 yards per target), and he had fewer than 1,000 yards receiving (984) for the first time since 2016.

At the age of 34, Kelce looked, for much of the season, as if he finally might be slowing down.

But in the playoffs he was back to looking like his vintage self (9.6 yards per target, 32-355-3 receiving on 37 targets in four games), and for the entirety of the campaign, he still led the Chiefs with an 82% route rate and 24% share of targets and air yards (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

So what should we expect from Kelce this year?

Travis Kelce: 2024 Projections & Rankings

With a FantasyLife+ subscription, you can get access to our official Fantasy Life player projections, which are managed by the incomparably sharp Dwain McFarland. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, we have Kelce projected to lead the TE position in most receiving categories with 113 targets, 81 receptions, 899 yards and 6.6 TDs receiving.

My projections are also available in our projections hub, and they're comparable to the site set: 116.0 targets, 85.3 receptions, and 914.8 yards and 6.7 TDs receiving.

For fantasy, Dwain and I both have Kelce as the TE2 in our customizable Fantasy Life Rankings Hub, although I'm higher on him in general: Of all the rankers, I've given him the highest overall ranking at No. 24 because of the tremendous upside he has exhibited throughout his career and the possibility that his 2023 season, which was impacted by a preseason knee injury that sidelined him for Week 1 and lingered throughout the year, was more of an anomaly than harbinger.

While I'm unlikely to have much fantasy exposure to Kelce this year because of my positional drafting strategy — I prefer Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts at cost — I still believe he's worthy of being selected on the borderline of Rounds 2-3. That's certainly ahead of where he's going on sharper platforms (Underdog and NFFC), but that's generally where he goes off the board in ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo leagues, and I'm comfortable with that (per our Fantasy Life ADP Tool).

Travis Kelce: 2024 Awards Bets

So what's the optimal way (if there is one) to invest in Kelce in the 2024 betting markets?

If you're a fan of burning money, you can certainly bet on Kelce to win one of the marquee awards.

  • Most Valuable Player: +50000 (Caesars)
  • Offensive Player of the Year: +10000 (DraftKings)

But I'd advise against that: Paper currency isn't an efficient fuel source, and no TE in NFL history has ever won either award. Even if you think of Kelce as more of a WR than a TE, no WR has ever won MVP, and just five WRs have won OPOY.

Kelce might be the greatest pass-catching TE of all time, but that's not enough (especially at his advanced age) to get me to bet against the historical trends for how voters have awarded these season-long honors.

If Kelce somehow has the greatest TE season ever, all the league's other marquee players magically have horrendously down campaigns, and the voters unprecedentedly decide to give Kelce one of these awards, I won't beat myself up for missing out on the Kelce longshot windfall.

It would take something almost unimaginable for Kelce to win one of these awards.

Travis Kelce: 2024 Superlative Bets

You can also bet on Kelce to lead the league in receiving yards and receiving TDs …

  • Most Receiving Yards: +7500 (FanDuel)
  • Most Receiving TDs: +3000 (BetMGM)

… but I'm similarly not a fan of these wagers.

Even with all the career success Kelce has had, he has gone over 1,400 yards just once, when he physically peaked at the age of 31. And even then he was more than 100 yards off the league lead (Stefon Diggs, 1,535 yards).

And over the past few years, the NFL leaders in receiving yards have been astronomically productive.

Realistically, Kelce doesn't have an 1,800-yard season in his range of outcomes, and that's the type of performance he would need to compete in this market.

But Kelce might have a shot to lead the league in receiving TDs. Last year he had just five, but he also had a position-high 26 targets in 15 games (per our Fantasy Life Redzone Tool). The Chiefs will almost certainly be more potent in 2024 than they were in 2023, when they ranked No. 15 in scoring after finishing top-six in each of the six previous seasons. With more points will come more potential scoring opportunities for Kelce, who averaged 10.7 TDs receiving per year in the 2020-22 timeframe.

With a little luck, Kelce could run hot near the end zone (even if he doesn't regain his prior status as a full-blown yardage accumulator) and lead the league with 13 TDs, which was last year's NFL-high mark set by Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans.

After all, just two years ago Kelce was No. 2 in the league with 12 receiving TDs in 2022.

That said, I still don't see Kelce having a career-high 13-plus TDs receiving this year at the age of 35 — and that's probably what he'll need to do to have a shot at leading the league in the category.

I have 15 other pass catchers projected for more receiving TDs this year, including teammate WR Rashee Rice (6.8). 

At +3000 odds, Kelce has a 3.23% implied probability to lead the league in receiving TDs (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), but I think his true odds are no higher than 2%.

Travis Kelce: 2024 Prop Bets

Ultimately, the season-long prop market is the place to take a Kelce position, and here are the bets that stand out to me.

  • Receptions: Over 79.5 (-112, FanDuel) | Projection: 85.3
  • Receiving Yards: Over 825.5 (-115, Caesars) | Projection: 914.8
  • Receiving TDs: Under 7.5 (-130, bet365) | Projection: 6.7

I don't think the delta between 79.5 receptions and 85.3 is sufficient to place a bet—but I do like the over on his receiving yardage. Aside from his injury-impacted rookie season, when he played just one game, Kelce has never had fewer than 825.5 yards receiving. If I can bet on something that has always happened continuing to happen, and if I can do it while paying only 15 cents of juice, I'll probably do it.

But I'm not fully enthusiastic about Kelce: I'm also betting under 7.5 TDs receiving. In Kelce's six seasons with QB Patrick Mahomes as the starter, he has gone under this number three times, so it's not unreasonably low—and he now might have more competition for scoring opportunities than he's ever had before with the offseason additions of WRs Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy to go alongside Rice and RB Isiah Pacheco.

I still expect Kelce to be one of the league's best TEs in 2024, but the market suggests that he could continue to decline, and it might even be too high on him as a TD producer.

Travis Kelce: 2024 Best Bets

  • Receiving Yards: Over 825.5 (-115, Caesars) | Projection: 914.8
  • Receiving TDs: Under 7.5 (-130, bet365) | Projection: 6.7