In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
One Sunday. Two Games: Eagles-Commanders; Chiefs-Bills. Winners go to New Orleans for a shot at immortality and losers go to Cancun.
It’s as good a sporting Sunday as we’ll get this year.
We’ve covered these games in depth all week on Fantasy Life and the Fantasy and Betting Life YouTube channels (and podcasts).
Before we dive into more bets, here is a quick breakdown of where each of these teams are currently at from an injury/news perspective.
🦬 Buffalo Bills
Out: S Taylor Rapp (back/hip)
Questionable: CB Christian Benford (concussion)
The Bills’ secondary could be in bad shape if Benford misses. He missed practice Friday, but head coach Sean McDermott said he was excused for a personal matter (which sounds strange given the circumstances). LB Matt Milano and CB Taron Johnson practiced on a limited basis only, putting more question marks around the state of their defense.
🏹 Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have no one listed on the injury report as questionable or out. They’re at full strength. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are 3-0 vs. McDermott and Josh Allen in the playoffs.
🦅 Philadelphia Eagles
Questionable: Cam Jurgens C/G (back)
Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert gave the Eagles a scare this week, but neither appear on the final injury report. Hurts was seen moving well at the end of the week and both players appear to be full go for Sunday.
🪖 Washington Commanders
Out: Sam Cosmi G (knee); Daron Payne DT (knee)
The Commanders lost their top guard last week vs. Detroit and will be without Payne, a great run stuffer. The Commanders fared far worse vs. the run without Payne this season.
If you want to see where our experts are laying down their bets, look no further.
Remember, we have you covered year-round. Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life throughout the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.
You can also head over to our Odds page to compare the prices around the books for this weekend’s games, then use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
BIGGEST EDGES ON CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY’S SLATE
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- NFL Playoffs: Can Daniels down the Eagles?
- NFL Prop Drop: How to bet the Chiefs’ backfield
- Watercooler: Double dose of Freedman game previews
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🔮 Freedman leaves no stone unturned in his Eagles-Commanders game preview.
🪨 One good unturned stone deserves another, as Freedman also drops a Chiefs-Bills game preview.
🏆 In order to be the champ, you have to beat the champ. Are the Chiefs vulnerable?
🍷 Mahomes-to-Kelce ages like a fine wine … these two are so smooth in the postseason.
🤔 Super Bowl or true love? Tough choice.
NFC Conference Championship🏈💥—Jayden Daniels will find a way
No. 2 Eagles (16-3) vs. No. 6 Commanders (14-5)
Sun. Jan. 26, 3:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Eagles -6.0 (-112; DraftKings)
Total: O/U 47.5
Despite all the talk about the Bills-Chiefs, I expect this NFC Championship matchup might give it a run for the game of the day.
The Eagles and Commanders will be playing for the third time this season and both games they’ve played ended in one-score affairs. Philadelphia held Daniels to just 5.96 yards per attempt and under 200 yards passing in the first meeting, but gave up an obscene 5 TD passes in the rematch, held in Week 16 in Washington.
From a circumstantial perspective, the Eagles have a lot of excuses they can use to justify that slip-up. Jalen Hurts was injured in-game, it meant little to them from a standings/playoff perspective and the game was played in Washington—whereas this week’s game will be back in Philadelphia.
One common thread from both meetings is that the Eagles have been able to run the ball at will. Saquon Barkley has averaged 5.38 yards per carry vs. Washington this year, taking 55 carries for 296 yards (and 2 rushing TDs).
The Commanders aren’t going to stop Barkley completely, but they need to limit his big runs and keep him from breaking this game open. With DT Daron Payne out, that task will be even harder this Sunday.
Can the Commanders give the Eagles some of their own medicine?
One way for the Commanders to stop Barkley and the Eagles will be to simply keep him off the field—a ploy that worked last week vs. Jahmyr Gibbs and Detroit as they held the ball for over 33 minutes in their win. The Eagles’ defense can be run on as we’ve seen the last couple of weeks with Kyren Williams going for 5.57 YPC vs. them in a game where the Rams pushed Philadelphia, at home, until the final whistle.
There is also the Jayden Daniels factor. In his first two playoff games, Daniels has completed 69% of his passes for 8.59 YPA. He’s also turned the ball over zero times, is capable of breaking plays with his feet, and averaged 9.0 yards per attempt vs. the Eagles in Week 16.
The Eagles are a true wagon at home. Jalen Hurts is 9-2 SU at home in division games in his career. However, the third game of a series tends to favor the road team. Via the Action Network, since 2004, away teams have gone 18-11-1 against the spread anytime two teams have hooked up for a third game in the same season.
Daniels has been a best friend to bettors this season, and while there are plenty of arguments against him this week, they sound remarkably similar to the ones I heard against him last week. And the week before against Tampa Bay.
Maybe this time it is different and Daniels’ incredible rookie season will come to a crashing end in the profanity-laced streets of Philadelphia. However, with this line getting to a full 6.0 points, and even hitting 6.5 in some places, I’m riding with Daniels and the Commanders. They’re an incredible 14-6-1 ATS this season and will be playing a familiar opponent whom they just beat outright, a mere five weeks ago.
BET: Commanders +6.0 (-108; DraftKings)
NFL Prop Drop 🏈—Hunt rules the roost in KC
Kareem Hunt O8.5 Carries (-110) DK
Kareem Hunt anytime TD (+175; DraftKings)
SGP: Hunt 10+ carries/Pacheco U8.5 carries (+425; bet365)
By: Geoff Ulrich
I played this prop (Kareem Hunt over 8.5 carries) last week and it came up one agonizing carry short, mostly thanks to the Texans having a blocked FG at the end of the game—and the Chiefs going pass-heavy in the first half. The blocked FG allowed the Chiefs to play it safe and kneel/take a safety, rather than run Hunt, who took one carry on the final possession and then watched Mahomes kneel.
Despite the low carry total, Hunt still vastly outperformed Isiah Pacheco in the game taking 8 carries for 44 yards (and a TD)—while Pacheco managed just 18 yards on 5 carries. As of now, the veteran has outcarried his younger counterpart in four straight games and averaged 10.25 carries over his last four starts.
Going into this all-or-nothing legacy game for Reid and Mahomes, there is little reason to think the reliance on Hunt will change. Pacheco has not looked like himself since returning from injury and has averaged 3.27 YPC over his last two starts.
We have Hunt projected for 9.0 carries this week and if the Chiefs do get out in front I'd say there is every chance we may even see him approach 10+ carries, given both the weight of this game and how effective he was for them last week.
How to maximize betting the Chiefs’ backfield
As I mentioned in our Conference Championship best bets article, I also like the prices we’re getting on Hunt for an anytime TD, at +175 (DraftKings)—a bet I also logged in our Free NFL Bet Tracker.
Via the Fantasy Life Utilization report, Hunt has now taken 100% of the Inside the 5 (I5) carries over the Chiefs’ last three games.
I played Hunt’s anytime TD prop last week (a bet I also placed in the tracker) and hit, and I’m all for staying on Hunt for one more week in that market as well. He’s a player I believe we could see a lot more of in this game, especially after his solid outing vs. the Texans.
If you want one more way to get Hunt exposure (if two bets aren’t enough), here is another interesting idea Matthew Freedman and I discussed on the Fantasy Life pod this week—combining the over or alt lines on Hunt’s carries with the under on Pacheco’s carries.
You won’t be able to do this at all sites, but bet365 does offer alt lines on rushing totals, which you can then combine with the under on Pacheco’s line for an SGP.
Given the heavy correlation of these two props, the boost from +150 (Hunt 10+ carries) to +425 (SGP of Hunt 10+ carries/Pacheco under 8.5 carries) seemed overly generous.
MORE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYER PROJECTIONS
What do the Sharps say for KC-Buffalo?
Source: Sharp Hunter
Author: Mike Mutnansky
IIf you invest your Sundays in NFL Football and the time each week to research your bets, DFS plays, and Fantasy Football waiver wire moves, then this is a bittersweet weekend.
Yes, the games look great. The Eagles host the upstart Commanders in the afternoon, with divisional foes battling for a spot in the Super Bowl. And we get Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen in prime time—Chiefs and Bills.
There is no doubt the games—at least on paper—are great.
But Championship Weekend means we’re also down to just three games left in the season.
But hey, let’s not look at this thing as a glass half-empty. Let’s lean on the sharps at Sharp Hunter to help us end the season on a winning note.
At Sharp Hunter, we’re tracking thousands of bets from sharp bettors, every day. A game they’ve liked this week and we’re seeing quite a few bets on is the AFC Championship game in Kansas City.
All week, we’ve seen our sharps at Sharp Hunter betting on the Chiefs -1.5 points. As of Saturday night, it’s Chiefs -1.5 or -2, depending on where you’re betting.
And look, I like the Bills. I like Josh Allen. I like their fans. My heart is rooting for Buffalo.
But I have to bet the Chiefs here—so I’m betting with the sharps.
When Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog or a favorite of less than three points in his career, he’s a gaudy 27-9-1 ATS. Travis Kelce was unleashed against Houston last week and is poised to have a good game again, especially if LB Matt Milano misses. Milano is one of a few key injuries to watch for Buffalo.
Allen became the first quarterback since 2008 to be named an All-Pro and not have any of his teammates also make an All-Pro team. If the Bills win, he’ll have to have an all-time game - and that’s possible.
But when you factor in a coaching disadvantage for the Bills … their injuries … playing on the road … all the positive Mahomes trends … I can’t bet on Buffalo.
