The UFC brings the “Suga Show” to Miami for UFC 299 this Saturday night. Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley headlines the event in his first title defense against Marlon Vera. The stacked 14-fight card is packed with highly competitive matchups featuring many of the UFC’s biggest names.

This card is a lock to get the blood pumping for bettors. Let’s cut right to the action with my UFC 299 best bets. 

Sean O’Malley over Marlon Vera by Decision (+125; FanDuel)

O’Malley is already the UFC’s most polarizing champion. Fight fans are either watching to see him pull off one of his prolific knockouts or hoping to see him get laid out on the canvas.

I hate to be that guy at the party, but the best bet for UFC 299’s main event is that both crowds are going home unhappy. The total set at 4.5 rounds should give betters an indication of what to expect: Five rounds of chess from two of the bantamweight divisions’ elite strikers.

O’Malley’s crushing knockout of Aljamain Sterling proved there will be consequences for anyone entering the pocket with reckless aggression. I don’t see Vera overcommitting or forcing the action, regardless of how the fight is going. Vera is a fighter who historically starts slow, but in his last two bouts (Sandhagen and Munhoz) he also failed to crank up the urgency in the later rounds, even when he was clearly behind on the scorecards.

If he wasn’t willing to go for broke against lesser competition, why should bettors believe he will against his most dangerous opponent? 

All signs are pointing to O’Malley dominating at range for an easy decision win. The champion averages an insane 7.25 significant strikes per minute, while Vera routinely absorbs more shots than he dishes out (-0.79 striking differential). There is always a chance O’Malley hands Vera his first knockout loss of his career, but the more probable outcome is “Suga” outclassing him for five rounds. Take the plus money and run.

Gilbert Burns Over Jack Della Maddelena (+145: Caesars) 

After starting his UFC career with six straight wins, Jack Della Maddelena gets a chance to insert himself into the title conversation with a win over No.4 ranked Gilbert Burns.

It’s no surprise the market is moving heavily against us, when you consider that the 37-year-old Burns is coming off a loss where he injured his shoulder.

That being said, I still contend it’s only creating more value on the underdog.

Gilbert Burns

May 6, 2023; Newark, New Jersey, USA; Belal Muhammad (red gloves) fights Gilbert Burns (blue gloves) during UFC 288 at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

This is a straightforward fight from a handicapping perspective. Della Maddelena is going to try and box Burns up. He has the hand speed and knockout power to turn Burns into a highlight. At age 27, he is at the point in his career where most fighters really start to take it to the next level. 

If Burns gets this to the mat, it could be over just as fast. Della Maddelena’s submission defense is not advanced enough to hold off Burns, a world jiu-jitsu champion. Burns racked up four takedowns and over five minutes of control time against Jorge Masvidal, and I am confident the same blueprint will succeed against a less experienced boxing-heavy opponent.

Petr Yan Over Song Yadong by Decision (+140, DraftKings)

The over 2.5 rounds has been bet as high as -298. Let’s take advantage by leveraging the decision prop to wager on Yan at +140 (rather than his money line price of -115) in a fight that is very likely to go to the scorecards. 

I love this as a nice buy-low spot on Petr Yan. The former bantamweight champion is amid a three-fight losing streak after dropping decisions to O’Malley, Merab Dvalishvili, and Aljamain Sterling. There are two key takeaways from Yan’s recent losses: He has been highly competitive against the division’s elite and has never been knocked out or submitted in his entire career. 

In a bout that’s likely to play out on the feet, I favor Yan to pull away throughout three rounds. He is the more accurate striker (53%-42%) with the higher output (+0.65 SLpm), and slightly better striking defense (+2%). Song Yadong’s last loss was a TKO stoppage to Cory Sandhagen, who coincidentally is the same fighter Yan defeated to earn his last win.

Common opponents aren’t always the best barometer, but in this case, it highlights the step up in class this fight represents for Yadong. I am all over Yan at the discounted price.

Parlay: Benoit Saint-Denis ML + Maycee Barber ML (+121; DraftKings) 

Maycee Barber will kick off our parlay on the preliminary card against Katlyn Cerminara (nee Chookagian). Barber is coming off the best performance of her career where she brutalized Amanda Ribas for a second-round TKO.

She’s an attractive parlay leg considering her opponent lacks any real threat of finishing the fight (all 11 of Cerminara’s UFC wins have come by decision). Barber will force her way inside and win on damage from the clinch whether it’s via the scorecards or stoppage. 

The young lion versus a declining UFC legend is the type of matchup that should get every bettor’s attention. That’s why I’m calling on Beniot Saint-Denis to close the parlay in the co-main event. Poirier is pure entertainment every time he steps into the Octagon, but I have concerns his durability is eroding. I can’t trust him considering he is coming off a head-kick knockout loss to Justin Gaethje, after getting seriously rocked by Michael Chandler in the fight prior. 

If his submission win over Chandler gives him enough confidence to roll with Saint-Denis, it’s going to be a grave mistake for the “The Diamond”. Saint-Denis’ grappling is a big enough “win-button” for me to be comfortable with him as our second leg.

Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Under 1.5 rounds (+160; DraftKings)

This fight has a low-key chance to be the most entertaining bout of the evening. We are getting very dangerous strikers that have no problem leaving themselves defensively vulnerable for a chance at a kill shot.  

Despite Michel Pereira’s penchant for attempting unorthodox, highlight-reel knockouts, his thunderous kicks and knees up the middle can put the lights out on any middleweight in the division. Will he find his next victim on Saturday night? 

I will push my money in on Michal Oleksiejczuk’s willingness to mess around and find out.

Oleksiejczuk’s insistence of walking his opponents down, and initiating the action is a key reason I’m on the under. He marches forward relentlessly, trying to punch holes through his opponents with punishing body work.

Money is coming in on the over as bettors bank on Pereira’s ability to pivot to his grappling once danger strikes, but I am betting he doesn’t get the chance. Considering how well Pereira cuts off the cage, and Oleksiejczuk’s willing to force the action with a barrage of pressure, we are getting a steal with this price on the under.

UFC Best Bets