UFC 300 is finally here! The historic event has been rightfully dubbed the most stacked card in UFC history with 12 current or former champions scheduled to compete.
Three titles will be on the line, including the headliner, a Light Heavyweight championship bout between Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill. The 13-fight card is dripping with betting value. Let’s take full advantage by utilizing a nice mix of straight bets, props, and parlays with my UFC 300 Best Bets.
UFC 300 Best Bets - Top Bet for Pereira vs. Hill
Hill ML vs. Pereira (+115; BetMGM)
Nine months after an Achilles injury forced him to relinquish his belt, Jamahal Hill returns to restore order in the division he once ruled.
The total sitting at 1.5 rounds shows the market’s appreciation for the power of both combatants. Alex Pereira has seven knockouts in 11 career fights, while Hill has turned the lights out on four of his last five opponents.
Look for “Poatan” to aggressively go after Hill’s legs and work his way up to the body, before unleashing his crumbling left hook. I won’t argue that the champion has a path to victory, but I can’t pass up the opportunity to bet Hill at plus money.
Pereira keeps his hands dangerously low. He has mostly done so without consequence against less dangerous opponents, but I’m confident Hill can find a home for his left hand. We saw Pereira’s defensive lapses lead to a brutal knockout loss to Israel Adesanya. Hill’s power is on a completely different level.
If the fight moves outside of the striking realm, all the advantages are on the side of the challenger. Hill can do serious damage in the clinch, and can reign down devastating shots from top position if he decides to take the fight to the mat.
“Sweet Dreams” knocked out his opponent in 48 seconds the only time he closed as a betting underdog in his career. I wouldn’t bank on this bout ending that early, but I will definitely take a shot Hill delivers once again.
Best Bets for UFC 300
Gaethje vs. Holloway Over 4.5 rounds (-125; DraftKings)
Justin Gaethje has made a career thriving in violence, while Max Holloway holds the prestigious record of one of the most brutal, lopsided beatdowns in UFC history. If you are looking for a guaranteed winner - it’s the fans.
The consistent money coming in heavy on Holloway is correlated to this one going the distance. Sure, Holloway floored “The Korean Zombie” in his retirement fight, but he hasn’t displayed true knockout power against elite competition in several years. Before that fight, Holloway’s previous eight bouts were all decided by a decision.
Rather than risking my money on whether Gaethje’s leg kicks can prevent Holloway from drowning him out with volume, I am betting that these two gladiators go to war for more than four and a half rounds. Gaethje always has serious finishing upside, but the best bet is Holloway's Hawaiian spirit and granite chin to carry us to the scorecards.
Parlay: Tsarukyan ML + Over 1.5 rounds vs. Oliveira (+130; DraftKings)
Charles Oliveira being traded as a +180 underdog is enough to have any bettor’s jaw drop to the floor. In my experience, these positions reveal much more signal than noise.
Oliveira is approaching 35 years old with 43 fights under his belt. A decline is inevitable, and pitting him against Arman Tsarukyan in his prime will speed up the process.
Tsarukyan has some of the same tools that ate up Oliveira in his title loss to Islam Makhachev. He has power on the feet, strong offensive wrestling with high-level grappling transitions that allow him to advance into dominant positions quickly. Oliveira’s submission acumen can be a gift and a curse, as it lures him into being too comfortable on his back. Not only does Tsarukyan attack viciously from top, but his ability to control his opponent will widen an already significant cardio advantage.
Oliveria was able to survive past the 1.5 round mark against Makhachev, so I am okay with betting he can hold off Tsarukyan for seven and a half minutes.
Sterling to win by Decision vs. Kattar (+125; BetMGM)
Calvin Kattar is an excellent test for Aljamain Sterling’s first foray into Featherweight waters. This is a binary fight where Sterling’s win equity comes from his potential to take Kattar down. The stats will tell you that’s going to be a problem, as Kattar’s takedown defense checks in at an impressive 91%.
Here’s why I’m backing Sterling to be the better round-winner in this contest.
Kattar is a notoriously slow starter. Let’s disregard his most recent bout versus Arnold Allen where he tore his ACL in Round 1. In his previous two fights, Kattar only landed 27% (68 of 274) of his total significant strikes in the first two rounds. Not only am I concerned about how Kattar’s return from a knee injury will compromise his takedown defense, but the extended layoff makes it more unlikely he has success early in the fight. Kattar is better suited for a five-round fight, and Sterling’s style is conducive to stealing early rounds.
Historically, the market has done a great job of capturing when Kattar is a bad matchup. He is 1-4 as a betting underdog, so it’s not surprising to see Sterling taking money this week. With his moneyline odds ballooning to -170, there is more value in betting Sterling to win by decision at a better price.
Figueiredo to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission vs. Garbrandt (-105; DraftKings)
Dana White is a very smart man. Nobody wants to see two fighters dance around for three rounds to open the biggest UFC card in history. Not that these two former champions would need any coaxing, but I’m sure both Deiveson Figuiredo and Cody Garbrandt understand the assignment.
Figuiredo looked like a perfect fit in his debut at Bantamweight. Despite failing to finish No.9 ranked Rob Font, it was clear his power translated to his new division. That’s all I needed to see before placing this wager. Garbrandt’s unreliable chin forced his rapid fall from grace, and Figueredo has a 77% finish rate in 22 career wins.
After Justin Gaethje called for 300k fight bonuses, I suspect some fighters on the preliminary card will crank up their aggression. That’s more reason to grab this inside-the-distance prop, so Figueiredo isn’t the only one making money off the night’s first fight.
