The UFC is back in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for this Saturday’s pay-per-view event. UFC 301 is headlined by Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja’s second-title defense against 10th-ranked Steven Erceg.
The 14-fight card features a bevy of Brazilian fighters positioned as heavy favorites, making it a unique event for bettors to handicap. Let’s sort through the chalk to find the best values on the board as I break down my best bets for UFC 301.
UFC 301 Best Bets - Top Bet for Pantoja vs. Erceg
Over 3.5 Rounds (-150, DraftKings)
Steve Erceg getting a crack at UFC gold after only three wins with the promotion adds a lot of uncertainty to his expected performance against elite competition. His UFC opponents thus far have had a combined record of 2-8 since 2022, but Alexandre Pantoja is coming off consecutive wins against Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval.
With Erceg’s opening odds having already been steamed early in the week, the best way to bet this fight is by targeting the total. Erceg’s finishing ability is being a bit overstated. Before knocking out Matt Schnell, who has been stopped in four straight fights, he went to decision in his previous two bouts against bottom-tier UFC competition.
Durability has never been an issue for Pantoja. His iron chin has held up over 32 pro fights without ever having been knocked out or submitted. Even if the cardio concerns for Pantoja resurface, he has proven he can fight through adversity to the final bell. If anything, having to recharge his gas tank will stall Pantoja’s offensive pressure, making this fight more likely to go over the 3.5 rounds.
As long as “Astroboy” can keep the champ off his back early, this one should comfortably cruise into the final round.
Best Bets for UFC 301
Aldo ML vs. Martinez (+124, BetMGM)
Jose Aldo returns to the Octagon hoping to ignite the hometown Brazilian crowd with one final victory celebration. Jonathan Martinez poses a stiff test, but this matchup favors Aldo more than betting odds indicate.
Martinez wields a devastating left leg kick that generates the kind of power that can quickly change the course of the fight. In his second-round TKO of Adrian Yanez, 29 of Martinez's 38 significant strikes came from leg kicks. It also marked the second time in three bouts where he finished his opponent by chopping them down with leg strikes. His kicks are a game-changer when facing an opponent who fails to defend them successfully.
However, the dynamic will be much different on Saturday night.
Aug 20, 2022; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Jose Aldo (red gloves) fights Merab Dvalishvili (blue gloves) during UFC 278 at Vivint Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
Aldo might be one of the best to ever do it in terms of checking leg kicks. He had some of the nastiest kicks in MMA during this title run, and the UFC future Hall of Famer matured into a defensive specialist during the later stages of his career.
I understand the concerns about Aldo’s age and two-year layoff to pursue boxing. Those factors are why the opportunity to bet Aldo at this price exists. Ultimately, I have to take the plus money when I consider Aldo’s defense, ability to punish the body, and overall experience. It’s possible that he could fold to Martinez, but having the crowd behind Aldo should also help him if it ends up going to the scorecards.
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Pereira vs. Potieria Under 1.5 Rounds (-150, BetMGM)
I don’t know if there's a more exciting fighter in the middleweight division than Michel Pereira. After having demolished Michal Oleksiejczuk in 61 seconds for his seventh straight victory, Pereira is back in action against Ihor Potieria as a -600 favorite.
I looked at several ways to back Pereira here. Considering his knockout prop sitting at similar odds (-150), betting the under provides more value with several additional outs, including a submission win.
Since returning to the middleweight division, Pereira has stopped both of his opponents in a little over a minute (1:01 and 1:06). His power certainly translates to his new division.
It’s also important to note that Pereira has significant finishing upside with his grappling if Potieria were to end up on his back. Potieira’s style leaves him susceptible to early finishes, as his latest win over Robert Bryczek was his first and only bout that lasted three rounds since he debuted on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021. Pereiria’s unorthodox and uber-aggressive offensive arsenal should force the action and lead to plenty of fireworks in the first round.
Let’s not overthink this one. We're getting one of the division's rising stars coming off two first-round finishes against an opponent who has been knocked out in his last three losses. The way I see it, the potential for this fight to end early is much higher than the 60% implied odds.
Brito ML vs. Shore (-165, BetMGM)
In a battle of featherweights looking to break into the rankings, we're backing another Brazilian who can showcase his propensity towards violence. Joanderson Brito owns a victory over 14th-ranked Diego Lopes and is riding a four-fight win streak highlighted by three-consecutive finishes.
His opponent, Jack Shore, has continued to get the job done during his 6-1 UFC stint. Despite his success, I still have questions about whether Shore has the tools to elevate his game against the ranked fighters in his division.
Brito will have significant advantages in this matchup with his superior speed, athleticism, and power advantages, all of which should be evident early. I have a hard time seeing Shore having success initiating the grappling when Brito is going to be launching overhand rights with bad intentions every time he attempts to close distance.
Mar 18, 2023; London, UNITED KINGDOM; Jack Shore (red gloves) fights Makwan Amirkhani (blue gloves) during UFC 286 at O2 Arena. Mandatory Credit: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports
Cutting through Brito’s buzz saw of explosive boxing hasn’t been easy of late. His opponents have only managed to land 25 total significant strikes combined over his last four-fight win streak.
I’m betting that Brito will be the fighter who rises to the occasion with a huge win. He has a history of outperforming the closing line, and this is also Shore’s first career fight as the betting underdog. Like many fights on this card, it’s a spot that’s tailor-made for the Brazilian to deliver in a big way.
Petrino and Klose ML parlay (-122, BetMGM)
This is a fight where Anthony Smith is being set up as a stepping stone to give Petrino a credible win against a big name. I’m happy to take any advantage to fade the 35-year-old Smith, who's coming off a TKO loss in December.
Petrino could end this by explosive KO or by using his power to assert control on the mat. I’m much less confident in how Petrino gets the job done, which makes leveraging his win probability in a parlay a solid option.
Our second leg utilizes a fighter who isn’t getting enough respect in the market based on the current odds. Drakkar Klose has won six of his seven, with his only loss having come against Benil Dariush.
Klose holds advantages over his opponent in several statistical categories, including striking output and accuracy. Silva absorbs more shots than he lands, and his lack of durability makes Klose a strong candidate to pick up a dominating win.
