The UFC returns from its Memorial Day Weekend break with another banger of a card this Saturday, as the promotion heads to the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. UFC 302 will be headlined by lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, making his third-title defense against Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier. The event card features twelve total fights, including a five-round co-main event between Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa. I have four best bets locked in for UFC 302, focusing primarily on the main card. Let’s jump right into the action, starting with the main event.  

Best Bet for Makhachev vs. Poirier

Makhachev to win by submission vs. Poirier (+100; FanDuel)

This is a legacy fight for both fighters. The cascading impact the result will have on each fighter’s career can not be understated. From Poirier’s perspective, it marks one final swing at the undisputed UFC championship belt that has eluded him throughout his impressive run. For Makhachev, this is a golden opportunity to catapult himself into superstardom.

As much as this fight sets up as the perfect final scene for Poirier’s career, the odds are providing a stiff warning that the UFC rarely produces storybook endings.

Makhachev is a massive -625 favorite to defend his UFC lightweight title for a third time. He has only closed as a larger favorite once in fifteen previous UFC fights, against Bobby Green on nine days' notice.

It feels crazy to see a legend like Poirier being discounted so heavily, but it’s warranted considering his struggles against similar opponents in the recent past.

It’s hard to watch Poirier’s previous losses to Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov, and justify betting on a different result. The Diamond’s rare combination of power and durability has earned him the second-most fight-of-the-night bonus in history. If anyone has a puncher’s chance - it’s him.

However, Makhachev’s ability to overwhelm his opponent with his wrestling whenever danger lurks, makes landing on him clean a very difficult task. The current lightweight champ has absorbed only 1.27 significant strikes per minute.

It’s important to note, Makhachev’s goal is to secure a fight for the welterweight title in pursuit of double-champ status.

He will be on a mission to make quick work of Poirier. A very dominant win gives him more leverage, and attacking Poirier’s submission defense is the quickest route to victory. Four of Makhachev’s last seven wins have come via submission. At even money, this is the perfect way to back Makhachev in a bout he is heavily favored in. 

UFC 302 Picks and Predictions

Strickland to win by decision vs. Costa (+195; FanDuel)

Strickland is back in action for the first time after losing his middleweight title to Dricus DuPlessis in a narrow decision. He gets a good test against No.7-ranked Costa in a five-round co-main event.

Costa lives and dies by his power. He opened his UFC career with four knockout wins. However, he has dropped three of his last four once the level of competition cranked up. Costa always gave me the impression of a fighter that can give you a devastating knockout against mid-level guys, but struggles when the division’s best can avoid his power. That’s the key factor in this matchup.

Strickland holds the best striking defense rate in the middleweight division. His ability to maneuver away from damage is downright frustrating for his opponents. He gets in a zone working behind his jab, systematically picking up the pace and piling on the damage.

Strickland’s high-output approach is not only incredibly tough for his opponents to deal with, but also shows very well for the judges. Even considering his most recent loss to current champion DuPlessis, Strickland is still 4-2 in his last six fights that went the full five rounds. On the other hand, Costa slowed down significantly after two rounds in his last bout, connecting on only  7 of 36 headshots in the third and final round. That’s going to be problematic. I think it’s very telling that Costa is 1-3 in his last four as the betting underdog.

I expect Strickland to stay in Costa’s face, turn it up in the later rounds, and win a decisive decision. When I saw these odds at +195, I had to lock it in. Strickland’s a pure round-winner with a style built for pushing fights deep. In this year’s pay-per-view events, main card fights are 19-6 to the over. With the total sitting at 4.5 rounds, I am comfortable backing this one to hit the scorecards with Strickland getting his hand raised.

Almeida to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission vs. Romanov (-135; DraftKings)

The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

Jailton Almeida was demolishing everything in his path until he faced Curtis Blaydes at UFC 299. Almeida planted Blaydes on his back nine different times in the first round, but Blaydes exposed his inexperience by countering his shot with bludgeoning head strikes until the ref stopped the fight. Blaydes has moved on to face Tom Aspinall for the interim title, while Almeida looks to put the piece back together in a bounceback fight against Alexandr Romanov. Here’s why I expect Almeida to remind everyone he is still a force in the heavyweight picture.

It just takes a quick glance at these two fighters to realize the physical advantages Almeida brings into this contest. When he has the ability to assert himself, he is difficult to stop. Almeida’s one-dimensional approach was clearly his downfall against Blaydes.

That being said, the same flawed process should be more than enough against Romanov, who only defends takedowns at a 20% clip. Almeida’s combination of speed and athleticism will make Romanov work in the early going, ultimately crippling his cardio at some point in round one. As the fight progresses, a finish will become inevitable as Almeida overwhelms him from top position.

Brown ML vs. Zaleski dos Santos (-175; DraftKings)

Randy Brown finally looks like he could be putting it all together. His first-round knockout of Muslim Salikov showcased the footwork and hand speed that makes him such a difficult puzzle for his fellow welterweights to solve. It’s possible the current version of “Rude Boy” is the best version of Brown we have seen to date. Brown has won 8 of his last 10 fights with his only losses to Jack Della Maddalena and Vincente Luque.

Brown’s advantages from his physical attributes really jump off the page. He will have the luxury of a four-inch height advantage, along with a five-inch reach advantage. Both will play perfectly into his ability to dictate range and establish his jab. Brown’s length will also be a major deterrent to Zaleski dos Santos’ kicking game. “Rude Boy” will have success dancing from the outside, and answering any advancements to the pocket with sharp, countering uppercuts.

Brown has proven to be trustworthy when the market expects him to handle his business. The 6’3” welterweight has brought home the money in each of his last five fights as the betting favorite. As the younger fighter with significant physical advantages, he is solid play to deliver yet again.