The UFC’s International Fight Week concludes with UFC 303, headlined by one of the most anticipated rematches of the year. Alex “Poatan” Pereira makes the walk on short notice to defend his light-heavyweight title against former champion, Jiri Prochazka. The 13-fight card has been shuffled around due to injuries, but the changes also opened up some new betting opportunities. Let’s lock in as I break down my most confident bets for UFC 303.

Best Bet for Pereira vs. Prochazka

Prochazka ML (+120; BetMGM)

It’s the Samurai versus the Warrior in what has quickly become the light heavyweight division’s most fascinating rivalry. Pereira, the former middleweight and current light heavyweight champion, is rapidly approaching goat status with his fifth title bout in only his ninth UFC fight. Former light-heavyweight champion Prochazka stands in his way looking to avenge a knockout loss from their previous encounter at UFC 295.

You don’t need the sportsbooks to tell you that this fight is going to end with one of the combatants going out on their shield.

From a technical standpoint, Periera’s advantages from the first fight are still very much in play. He is one of the best kickboxers in the game and will snap off devastating calf kicks in effort to take the bounce out of Prochazka’s offense. It’s entirely possible Pereira sizes him up for another crushing left hook, but I still see this as closer to a coin-flip fight.

As much as this feels like I’m betting against Patrick Mahomes, the value with Prochazka at +130 versus anybody is too good to pass up. Prochazka can back Pereira up with his unique entries into the pocket and by spamming with his jab. He was having success in the first fight, and the opportunity for extended grappling success will always be there against Pereira.

Prochazka has been very vocal about this fight being about much more than the belt. He is out to prove that his “Samurai” style is championship material. It’s a short-notice fight where minor adjustments could be the difference. I don’t think Pereira wins this fight at the 59% clip that the implied odds suggest, so I have to take the plus-money with the dog. Bet the Samurai takes one back, and get ready to bet on the trilogy!

More Best Bets for UFC 303

Machado Garry ML (-140, BetMGM)

Ian Machado Garry understands there are levels when facing the world’s best mixed-martial artists. The 14-0 welterweight is riding a seven-fight winning streak since entering the UFC. His unanimous decision win over Geoff Neal didn’t deliver many highlights, but it showed the discipline and maturity that will benefit him in a big way against Michael “Venom” Page.

Machado Garry’s willingness to fight strategically gives me a lot of confidence he can win rounds in this matchup. Both fighters excel at using their length to dictate range, but Machado Garry has the tools to easily exploit Page’s vulnerability to leg kicks. I expect Machado Garry to systematically stifle Page’s offense by attacking his legs, mixing in combinations, and tying Page up against the fence.

In a fight expected to go the distance, I want my money on Machado Garry, who holds a huge volume edge. The undefeated contender averages 6.27 significant strikes per minute compared to only 3.14 from Page.

Parlay: Pyfer ML & Jourdain vs. Silva Over 2.5 rounds  (+132; DraftKings)

Joe Pyfer sets up nicely as a parlay leg in a great bounce back spot against 34-year old Marc-Andre Barriault. Pyfer’s hype train lost steam after dropping a decision to Jack Hermansson, but he is still a very talented middleweight prospect with a lot of room to show rapid improvements. He gets a much more favorable opponent with Barriault, who’s forward-marching style is paying off less and less as father-time catches up.

I trust the power of Pyfer to be the difference in a fight that will play out primarily on the feet. Neither fighter has great head movement, but Barriault’s poor defensive metrics (absorbs 5.67 strikes per minute) paint a grim picture. His fighting style is overly-reliant on his durability showing up as the equalizer. Against Pyfer, that is simply asking too much.

Our second leg features one of my confident totals. In pay-per-view events this year, the over is 36-7 (83.7%) in fights that close with a total of 2.5 rounds. This matchup between Charles Jourdain and Jean Silva feels destined for the scorecards.

In his last few fights, Jourdain has made an effort to fight with a more technical gameplan. The result is four of his last five bouts went the distance. While his opponent, Silva, holds the majority of the finishing equity, it gets compromised by his lack of cardio in extended fights. I expect Jourdain to survive Silva’s early storm while putting on a fun, three-round scrap for the fans, while bringing home this leg of the parlay.

Arlovski vs. Buday Over 2.5 rounds (-188; DraftKings)

Heavyweight fights that leave the first round are rarely easy on the eyes. That being said, I have never let style points get in the way of a solid bet.

It’s clear that the market is too high on the finishing potential of Martin Buday as a big favorite. Not only is Buday coming off an ugly TKO loss, but he has never shown the ability to end fights early at the UFC level. His only UFC win via stoppage came against Josh Parisian, who was cut after getting knocked out in 18 seconds by Robelis Despaigne in his very next fight.

There are two main factors suppressing odds in our favor: Andrei Arlovksi’s age and the weight class. Buday is fighting a 45-year old opponent in a division that historically sees fights go to the scorecards at less than a 20% clip. Arlovski is the UFC’s iron man. He fought at UFC 28. It’s understandable to question his durability in his 58th career fight. However, he was able to survive three rounds with Waldo Cortes-Acosta earlier this year. If he can avoid danger against a solid heavyweight striker, I’ll bet he can finish the dance with Buday.

Oliveira ML vs. Simon (+205; DraftKings)

Vinicius Oliveira is exactly the type of fighter you want to open a major card. The Brazilian bantamweight has claimed sixteen knockout victims in 23 career fights, and delivered one of the most electrifying knockouts of the year in his UFC debut in March.

Oliveira is a wild man in the Octagon. He is always looking to seize the opportunity to showcase every flying knee, spinning elbow, and high-reel-worthy strike he has ever perfected in training. Ricky Simon’s wrestling and experience looks the perfect anecdote to Oliveira’s uber-aggressive assault. However, it's hard to pass up a fistfight with a showman like Oliveria, who is always hanging his hands low, luring his opponent into exchanging heat in the pocket. Any extended time on the feet will result in Oliveira chopping down Simon’s lead leg and punishing him with thunderous body kicks.

Oliveira’s reckless approach adds a level of variance into the fight, which makes him valuable at +205 considering his speed advantages and raw power for the division. This is a prime spot to fade the 31-year-old Simon as a big favorite. He is coming off two straight losses (both as a favorite), and the market hasn’t properly adjusted to impending decline.