UFC 304 is delivering two title fights this Saturday in a huge pay-per-view event from Manchester, England. The five-round main event showcases England’s undisputed champion, Leon Edwards, as he defends his welterweight title against Belal Muhammad. 

There are 14 scheduled bouts in total, including a heavyweight interim title fight between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. The pay-per-view cards have been highly profitable for us this year, so let’s keep the momentum rolling with our UFC 304 best bets.

Best bet for Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

Edwards to win by decision (+100; DraftKings) 

“Headshot Dead” is most likely the first thing that flashes into your mind when you hear the name Leon Edwards. His last-second, head-kick knockout of Kamaru Usman not only transformed him into a champion but symbolized the perseverance it took Edwards to reach the mountaintop. The legendary comeback also overshadows the fact that Edwards, albeit a great champion, is not a finisher. 

Before his knockout of Usman, Edwards was on a run of four straight decisions, with his last stoppage coming over Peter Sobotta in 2018. Both of his title defenses (Usman 2, Colby Covington) went the full five rounds, ending in decision victories. That’s not a knock on Edwards. It’s quite the opposite. The consistency of his fights presents a great opportunity for us to bet on Edwards at even money. 

From a matchup perspective, the fight strongly favors Edwards in a few ways. Despite Belal Muhammad’s improvements, takedowns won’t come easy, if at all, against the champ. Edwards is a technician with significant advantages in footwork, allowing him to masterfully control the distance. 

When Muhammad does get inside, Leon can weaponize the clinch to land damaging elbows. Plus, Muhammad still tends to leave himself vulnerable to — you guessed it — high-head kicks. I see this fight primarily playing out as a five-round striking match, where Edwards picks him apart at range. Let’s lock up Leon at even money. 

More bets for UFC 304

Allen to win by decision vs. Chikadze (+100, FanDuel) 

Giga Chikadze hasn’t been knocked out in 18 professional fights spanning more than eight years. Arnold Allen has superior technical striking, but that doesn’t mean it's wise to bet he’s the first to ice the former Glory kickboxer. 

Simply put: Chikadze’s chin checks out.

In his only UFC loss, he absorbed 127 headshots from Calvin Katter over five rounds. Once you come to terms with his durability, it’s clear this will be a striking chess match for three rounds. Rather than risk -225 on the moneyline, I am all over Allen to take home a decision victory. 

Allen’s left hand out of the southpaw stance should find a home at a consistent rate. Both fighters can uncork good combinations at close range, but Allen’s calf kicks will make “Ninja” uncomfortable with moving forward. Once Allen makes him hesitant, he should control the pace and force Chikadze to fight off his back foot far too often. Allen has aggressively swarmed inferior strikers in past fights, and the roars from the hometown crowd will coerce the Englishman to keep his foot on the gas. 

We have seen some slight market movement towards Chikadze, but Allen’s unblemished 7-0 record as a UFC betting favorite is tough to overlook. In a fight I expect to go the distance, Allen is a solid play to get the nod from the judges on his home soil.  

Green vs. Pimblett - fight to go the distance (-150; DraftKings) 

The world can’t wait for Paddy Pimblett to get humbled in the UFC Octagon. To the dismay of most fans outside of England, the brash lightweight continues to pass each test thrown his way. However, his shortcomings in the striking department are a huge reason why he is positioned as a slight underdog against the 49-fight veteran King Green. 

The last time we saw Green, he was painting a crimson masterpiece on the face of Jim Miller. Pimblett is going to get boxed up early. The fight gets murky to project when it comes to Pimblett’s ability to use his grappling to climb back into the fight. Green has decent defensive wrestling and scrambles well enough to get back to his feet. 

Paddy Pimblett

Dec 16, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Paddy Pimblett (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Tony Ferguson (not pictured) during UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Clear striking versus grappling dynamics can produce some wild variance and inconsistent scoring in competitive fights. For that reason, I see more value in betting the fight to go the full three rounds than threading the needle to determine who gets their hand raised.

Pimblett has proven to be durable but also was unable to secure a finish in his last two bouts. Green over 82.5 significant strikes (-115) is also a solid prop option if you’re looking for a less chalky alternative.

Mokaev ML vs. Kape (-150; BetMGM) 

There is nothing like a hotel brawl between fighters to get the blood pumping for a flyweight scrap. Despite the expectation of the bad blood carrying over to the Octagon, I’m betting the action is much more controlled when it matters most. 

Mokaev doesn’t deliver the most entertaining fights, but his effectiveness is unmatched. He averages 5.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and banks on being able to win grappling exchanges while hunting for submissions. His early dominance at the UFC level (6-0) proves how dictating where the fight takes place can be the single most important aspect of mixed martial arts. 

Mokaev will turn this into a war of attrition by relentlessly pursuing takedowns until Kape succumbs to the pressure. If Kape can’t force Mokaev off him to create space, all of his dynamic striking and athletic edges become irrelevant. 

The money continues to flow in support of Mokaev, who could have had at dog money at opening prices. At -150, he is still a solid bet to continue his undefeated run and move closer to a title shot. 

Loughran to win by decision vs. Hadley (+100, FanDuel) 

Dana White loves a confident Irishman. While it’s unlikely Caolan Loughran will make serious waves at bantamweight, the promotion has put him in an ideal spot to gain momentum with another win on Saturday night. As bettors, we want to take full advantage by targeting another decision prop.

Loughran wants to wrestle. His overall game hasn’t evolved to the point he can win without it. Lining him up against Jake Hadley and his 35% takedown defense ensures he will be able to implement what he does best. Back in August, Hadley allowed four takedowns and over seven minutes of control time to Cody Durden.

The end result was a decision loss where he was swept 30-27 on all three scorecards. Not only does Loughran have the process to win the same way, it’s also the most likely outcome. 

Hadley has underperformed to market expectations since joining the UFC. He is 2-3 despite being favored in all five of his matchups. I can’t imagine Hadley’s best version surfaces as an underdog for the first time when fighting above his natural weight class against a wrestling-heavy opponent. Especially considering his preparation was limited due to accepting the fight on short notice. Bank on Loughran to wrestle his way to a decision win.