The UFC hits us with a solid pay-per-view card this Saturday from Perth, Australia. In the UFC 305 main event, former middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya looks to recapture UFC gold by dethroning the current middleweight champion, Dricus Du Plessis. The five-round main event headlines a 12-fight card featuring seven local stars, including top flyweight contender Steve Erceg.

I have five bets locked and loaded for the night, so let’s get right to the action with my UFC 305 Best Bets.

Prediction for UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Du Plessis ML (-102; DraftKings) 

Adesanya’s knockout of Alex Pereira was one of the most iconic moments inside the UFC Octagon. It was clear the victory marked the pinnacle of Adesanya’s career. He brutally slayed his final adversary, leaving himself as the undisputed king of the middleweight division. Adesanya may have won the war with Pereira, but there are signs it came at a steep cost.

After watching Adesanya lose his title to Sean Strickland in his following fight, I am willing to wager that we won't see the peak version of “The Last Stylebender” ever again.

If we strip the name away from the fighter, this would be a prime spot to bet against Adesanya. He is 35 years old coming off a steep drop in performance, followed by a long, self-induced layoff, where he admitted his body was shot from fighting four times in 14 months.

Once the cage door locks, the fight comes down to Adesanya’s ability to use his range to piece up the champ at distance. His path to victory requires the peak speed, athleticism, and timing that made him one of the best ever in the middleweight division. I question whether that part of his game will be firing on all cylinders.

It’s more probable that Dricus Du Plessis finds success getting in close, and turning this into a brawl while wearing out Izzy with his wrestling. Du Plessis landed six takedowns on 11 attempts against Strickland. We have seen Adesanya struggle to fight off his back in the past, so it’s a smart way for the champ to win minutes and make Adesanya work from his back.

I am expecting a close, competitive fight that likely goes to the scorecards. There are just too many question marks with Adesanya coming off the layoff. I will side with the champion who is entering his prime, and hungry enough to make Izzy his pinnacle moment. 

More Bets for UFC 305

Erceg to win by decision vs. Kara France (+120; DraftKings)

The best ability is availability. The old Bill Parcells quote certainly rings true when discussing Steve “Astroboy” Erceg’s rise through the flyweight division.

Erceg was fast-tracked to a title shot at UFC 301, where the Western Australia native pushed Alexandre Pantoja to the brink in a five-round war that ended with the champ retaining his title. The razor-close decision loss answered all questions about whether Erceg was among the division’s best.

I don’t see any reason to back off Erceg now. His jab should play a pivotal role in interrupting the rhythm of Kai Kara-France’s pocket boxing. He is the more accurate striker (49%-39%) with the weapons to punish Kara-France at close range. When Kara-France’s forced entries aren’t met with a jab in his face, Erceg will trap him with step-in elbows and knees, racking up damage on the shorter fighter.

Kara-France’s frustrations will result in him overextending himself, opening opportunities for Erceg to take it to the ground as well. This will be Kara-France’s fourth straight fight as the betting underdog where his only win came against a one-dimensional wrestler (Askar Askarov). 

Getting plus-money on decision prop is a solid value. The over 2.5 currently sits at -270 implying a 72.97% probability this one extends late into the final round. Erceg’s lone finish in the UFC came against Matt Schnell – a fighter known for his durability issues. I will bet the finish doesn’t come as easy against the UFC’s No.4 ranked flyweight. 

Gamrot to win by decision vs. Hooker (-160; DraftKings) 

It’s amazing how Mateusz Gamrot still manages to fly under the radar in a lightweight division filled with killers.

Gamrot checks into the rankings at #5, and his dominant wrestling makes him an arduous out for even the most skilled and technical grapplers in the division. The American Top Team product is a hefty -325 favorite against fan-favorite Dan “The Hangman” Hooker. His most recent three-fight win streak put him back into the chat of title contenders, and I don’t believe Hooker can do much to prevent Gamrot from taking another step towards UFC gold.

Let’s be honest, Hooker is an easy fighter to love. His comeback win against Jalin Turner epitomized the heart, grit, and determination that has led to so many memorable performances inside the cage. However, when you step inside the Octagon with Gamrot, you have to have elite grappling skills to combat his relentless takedowns.

Gamrot averages 5.28 takedowns per fifteen minutes and has a proven track record of controlling elite grapplers. He landed six takedowns against No. 1 contender Arman Tsarukyan, who many peg as Islam Makachev’s greatest challenge.

There are not many fights where I wouldn’t consider Hooker a live dog, but this is one of them. Gamrot’s wrestling will systematically break Hooker down, drowning out that dawg inside that makes him so dangerous. The decision prop is a great way to get off the big money line price and grab Gamrot to get his hand raised at reasonable odds.

Walker ML vs. Tafa (+110, DraftKings) 

In a matchup between two heavyweights looking to step out of the shadows of their siblings, Valter Walker has a prime opportunity to pick up his first UFC win against Junior Tafa.

The highly-hyped Walker, who entered his last fight as a -260 favorite, flopped hard in his UFC debut. The uninspiring decision loss to Lukaz Brzeski has turned the market against him, flipping Walker to plus money after being positioned as a small favorite. Here’s why I believe bettors are being a bit too unforgiving.

Tafa is KO-or-bust heavyweight. If he doesn’t get the early knockout, his chances of winning diminish quickly. Stylistically, Walker should be able to drive right through the biggest hole in Tafa’s game – his wrestling defense.

Tafa’s loss to Mohammad Usman, where he relinquished over 12 minutes of control time, lays out the perfect blueprint for the underdog. Walker landed 4 of 5 takedowns against Brzeski and should have more success keeping Tafa on his back for extended periods.

He's only 1-2 since joining the UFC with his lone victory against a fighter no longer with the promotion. At +110 odds, I will bet on Walker’s ability to plant him on his back.

Tuivasa ML vs. Rozenstruik (+185; BetMGM)

Dana White likes to lace every pay-per-view event with one bout guaranteed to get the crowd amped and out of their seats. Tuivasa-Rozenstriuk serves as the night’s “swing until death” heavyweight slugfest.

Tuivasa, a Sydney native, captivates crowds by celebrating his wins with post-fight shoeys. The problem? There hasn’t been anything to celebrate during his four-fight losing streak.

This fight isn’t about the X’s and O’s – It simply comes down to who gets the KO. That’s the type of fight where Tuivasa thrives. He will benefit from facing an opponent who won’t threaten to take him down, allowing him to unleash haymakers while feeding off a hometown crowd that will be going absolutely bananas.

At +185, this fight is a clear dog or pass spot where I am happy to get involved. Rozenstruik’s counterstriking could catch an overzealous Tuivasa, but his overall low-volume approach will be his undoing if he isn’t able to land the kill shot.

We are buying Tuivasa at market-floor odds in a high-variance fight. Let’s dust him off the clearance rack and get one last win out of him.