The UFC takes the action to the Sphere for one of the most anticipated cards of the year. UFC 306 will be a one-of-a-kind live event headlined by bantamweight champion Sean “Suga Show” O’Malley defending his belt against Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili.
We get a double-dose of championship fights as Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko’s trilogy bout will be the night’s co-main event.
UFC 306 will pay tribute to Mexican combat sports with a unique format highlighted by short, movie-style introductions to each main card fight. The event doesn’t have as many fights as a typical card, but the star power, and the market’s reaction to it, bring more than enough solid betting opportunities to pounce on.
Below, I will break down my three best bets, prop options for each fighter, and wrap up the card with a parlay for UFC 306. Bring on the action!
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BEST BET FOR SEAN O’MALLEY VS. MERAB DVALISHVILI
Merab Dvalishvili ML (+118; Caesars)
Sean O’Malley is already one of the best strikers to set foot in the UFC. His ability to switch stances, set traps, and throttle his opponents with his power makes him extremely dangerous at all times. A slick second-round knockout of Aljamain Sterling and a flawless five-round masterclass against “Chito” Vera proved that anyone, striker or grappler, can get it.
Dvalishvili will undoubtedly have to walk through a firestorm of big shots to win this fight. While it’s fair to question whether he survives, it’s clear that Dvalisvili’s insane pace will break O’Malley once he comes out the other side.
There are fighters who rely on forward pressure, and then there is Merab Dvalishvili.
You don’t have to look further than his fight against Petr Yan to see the impact of the break-neck pace he puts on his opponents.
Yan looked bewildered throughout the fight, as Merab’s swarming offense engulfed the former interim champion. Dvalishvili outlanded Yan almost 2 to 1 (147-75) while attempting a staggering 49 takedowns. O’Malley’s fight with Yan looked much different, ending in a razor-thin split-decision victory.
O’Malley’s prolific power could serve Dvalishvili the same fate as his good friend, Aljamain Sterling. That being said, having to rely on a knockout, when O’Malley’s win equity dries up after two rounds, isn’t a position I want to be in at these odds. Dvalishvili may not control O’Malley for extended periods, but the taxing task of continuously fending off “The Machine” will slow down the 5’11 sniper. Two of O’Malley’s last three fights ended in a decision.
When this fight was announced back in July, Dvalishvili was opened as high as a -200 favorite. I disagree with the move flipping O’Malley to favorite. It’s likely the public continues to pour in on the champ leading up to the fight, but I’m happy to lock in plus money and bet on a new bantamweight champion.
Props to target:
- Dvalishvili to win by decision (+170)
- Sean O’Malley to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+800)
MORE BETS FOR UFC 306
Alexa Grasso ML vs. Valentina Shevchenko (-135; DraftKings)
Alexa Grasso’s rise to women’s flyweight champion is one of the most underrated career arcs in MMA. After stunning Valentina Shevchenko as a +750 underdog to claim the flyweight strap, she rallied late in the rematch (as a +188 underdog) to retain her title with a split draw. It may not have been a victory on record, but was a massive win in terms of sustaining her spot as champion.
The betting market has taken notice, installing Alexa Grasso as a favorite for the first time in the trilogy against Shevchenko. She has passed her rival in the eyes of the market, and here’s why I’m betting she justifies the odds on Saturday night.
They say iron sharpens iron, and it’s clear Grasso has been the beneficiary from that aspect of the rivalry. She has elevated all facets of her game while Shevchenko, at 36 years old, is starting to show slight signs of decline.
Both previous fights were highly competitive. However, it was Grasso who flashed her finishing potential by submitting Shevchenko in the first fight, and securing a very dominant body triangle in the final round of the rematch.
I expect Grasso to be the faster and crisper kickboxer, putting Shevchenko on her back foot with her aggressive striking. Shevchenko has to bank on her wrestling to win rounds, but Grasso’s get-ups and improved transitions will force her to be perfect. Shevchenko’s own mistakes have been her undoing, and Grasso is more capable than ever of ensuring it costs her the fight.
Prop to target:
- Alexa Grasso to win by decision +200
- Valentina Shevchenko to win by split or majority decision +700
Ignacio Bahamondes ML vs. Manuel Torres (+105; BetMGM)
There is always a banger hiding out somewhere on the preliminary card. Luckily for us, this matchup also delivers a prime betting spot we can fire into.
Manuel Torres has thrashed every opponent the UFC has put in front of him. All three of his wins came by first-round finish. In fact, I had to go back to 2018 to find the last time “El Loco” was forced to fight more than one round. Whenever a fighter comes on the scene by stringing together multiple first-round finishes, they are typically overvalued in the market until the UFC finds their ceiling. Therefore, it can be profitable to bet against these fighters as the competition stiffens.
Bahamondes has the skill set to push Torres past the first round. The key for Bahamondes will be utilizing his reach advantage and overall length. If he stays disciplined at range and avoids getting roped into a brawl, Bahamondes' kicking arsenal should be problematic for Torres at all three levels.
Once the fight gets past the first-round mark, I’d rather have my money on the fighter who’s proven to keep a strong pace over three rounds.
Since his highlight reel knockout on Dana White's Contender Series, Bahamondes has only been an underdog once in six fights. In that bout, he cashed as a +144 underdog with a third-round knockout. I see this playing out similarly as Bahamondes takes over late before delivering the kill shot in the final round.
Props to target:
- Bahamondes to win in Round 3 (+900)
- Torres to win by KO in Round 1 (+400)
UFC 306 PARLAY (+559; DraftKings)
- Ronaldo Rodriguez ML
- Aldana - Dumont Over 2.5 rounds
- Diego Lopes by decision
Last week’s +355 parlay saved our card, so it’s only right that we bring it back for UFC 306.
Let’s start by playing against Ode Osbourne.
Osbourne has lost his last two fights by submission and could be fighting to stay in the promotion. It’s never a good sign when the UFC responds by putting you against a young prospect, and it’s even worse when the odds makers install you as the underdog. This will be a showcase for Rodriguez.
Norma Dumont has fought to a decision in her last eight fights, so I’m expecting a very soft landing on this -475 total for our second leg.
Lastly, Brian Ortega has guaranteed that somebody is getting finished in his long overdue bout with Diego Lopes. While I appreciate Ortega’s promotional prowess, betting against guarantees is exactly what I love to do.
Plus, let’s not act like finishes are easy to come by against guys like this. Lopes hasn’t been stopped inside the distance since 2018, and Ortega’s latest comeback win on one leg proves he still has that zombie in him. I like Lopes to get his hand raised in a close decision while we sprint to the window to collect.
