Action returns to the Octagon on Saturday and Mark Drumheller is here with his UFC bets for Carlos Prates vs Neil Magny:

The UFC hits a milestone with its 100th event at the Apex this Saturday. Fighting Nerds’ knockout artist Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates headlines in a welterweight matchup against cagey-veteran, Neil Magny. The fight card is flooded with big favorites, but that won’t stop me from digging up some value. Let’s get right to the action with this week’s UFC bets! 

BEST BET FOR CARLOS PRATES VS. NEIL MAGNY

Carlos Prates to win and Over 1.5 rounds (+100; DraftKings)

It’s not the three straight knockouts that make Carlos Prates such an intriguing prospect. It’s how comfortable he looked in the Octagon dismantling Li Jingliang, his toughest test to date.

Prates was in his bag, fluidly moving in and out of range, unloading lethal left hands in succession before putting Jingliang to sleep. It’s clear the 31-year-old welterweight is entering his prime, and it’s easy to see that his power will be a big problem for anyone in the division.

Bettors have already skyrocketed Prates’ moneyline (-900) into undesirable territory. With the 37-year-old Magny coming off a knockout loss in August, it’s easy to see why the odds are so steep for anything related to a Prates’ KO.

This has all the feels of the UFC setting up the Brazilian striker for a big finish in his first main event. Rather than lay -400 for Prates to win by knockout, the value play is to bet on Magny weathering the storm for 1.5 rounds.

I have seen Magny, a 41-fight veteran, dirty-up fights by cage-pushing and wearing down his opponents. If he forces Prates to work in the grappling realm, he should be able to survive past the mid-way mark.

It’s not as if Prates is starching everybody in the first round. Two of his three knockouts in the UFC occurred on the back end of Round 2. I will sweat out the seven and half minutes to get this bet at even money. 

MORE UFC BETS FOR UFC FIGHT NIGHT: PRATES VS. MAGNY

Gillian Robertson to win by submission (+110; DraftKings) 

We talk about these types of fights each week. I love targeting grapplers against opponents who will struggle to keep the fight where they need it. Gillian Robertson is on a 4-1 run and is a -395 favorite to earn her third consecutive win on Saturday. Her opponent, Luanna Pinheiro, is looking to avoid her third straight loss. 

Robertson is ruthless from top position against inferior grapplers. She has recorded a takedown in eight straight fights and is 9-1 when landing multiple takedowns since being under the UFC banner. Eventually, this fight is going to hit the mat and Robertson will be unwilling to show mercy to her opponent. Pinheiro relinquished over three minutes of control time in her latest loss to Angela Hill, before being submitted. Robertson’s technical expertise on the mat will keep Pinheiro fighting off her back while Robertson hunts for ways to end the fight.

Getting Robertson, who owns the UFC women’s record for submission wins, at +110 to force a tap is too good to pass up. 

Additional props to target: 

  • Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance -135
  • Luana Pinheiro Round 1 +1400

Bernardo Sopaj vs. Ricky Turcios - Fight goes the distance (-160; DraftKings) 

In case you haven’t heard, more fights are ending in decision since the UFC updated their gloves over the summer. The last event at the Apex saw 10 of 11 fights end in a decision with all eleven going over the closing total. Regardless of how much you subscribe to the gloves driving these results, you’re going to be comfortable betting into this market when the right matchup presents itself.

Bernardo Sopaj and Ricky Turcios is a matchup where I see an edge to the over.

At -160 odds, the books are calculating the implied probability at 61.5%. There is value at that number considering that Sopaj’s cardio should be improved off his UFC debut. At the Apex, you don’t see the same level of “cardio dump” that plagues debutants who performed in front of UFC crowds for the first time. However, there is still an impact, especially considering Sopaj took the fight on short notice. With a full camp, Sopaj should be ready for a full three rounds.

Turcios is a fighter who wins more on pace than technical ability. You can usually tell early if his high output (4.63 SLpM) and unconventional approach are going to be effective enough to stay competitive throughout the fight.

I see this as a fun scrap with Sopaj likely leaning on his wrestling to slow down Turcios’ frantic motor. I am comfortable risking the -160 on Turcios avoiding a finish. There is no shame in being submitted by Raul Rosas Jr. Prior to that fight, Turcios went the distance in four straight. 

Additional props to target: 

  • Bernardo Sopaj to win by decision -105
  • Ricky Tucios +3.5 +100 

PARLAY FOR UFC FIGHT NIGHT: PRATES VS. MAGNY

  • Melissa Mullins ML 
  • Charles Radtke ML 
  • Gerald Meerschaert ML
  • Payout +664 

It’s back to “Go Big or Go Home” with this week's +664 parlay. Melissa Mullins sets it off with the very first fight on the card. Prelim favorites have won at a 70% clip this year at the Apex, and the dynamic in this matchup is one of the reasons why. 

Mullins faces Klaudia Sygula, who only has a handful of professional fights. This is a huge step up in competition for Sygula. Mullins’ experience and wrestling should allow her to coast to an easy win and get our parlay started with a win. 

Our second and third leg is where it will get sweaty. Charles Radtke is a solid target considering he should be able to march down Matthew Semelsburger and grind out rounds.

Semelsberger can pop off with a flurry of offensive fireworks, but his lack of grappling defense hands his opposition an easy out. Semelsberger has dropped three straight and was taken down 6 or more times in two of those losses.

Infusing Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert as our final leg is a sneaky way to boost up our payout. Meerschaert’s high-level submission game has helped him score big upset wins in the past, and now he is facing an opponent who will be a willing participant in the grappling exchanges. That adds a coin-flip flavor to the fight, making “GM3” a live leg to secure us a solid payout.