The UFC takes its show on the road to Atlantic City, New Jersey for this Saturday’s Fight Night. The main event features a high-stakes matchup with title implications between women’s flyweights contenders Erin “Coldblooded” Blanchfield and Manon “The Beast” Fiorot.
With 14 total fights on the card, I lean heavily on the prop market to find the best value in my UFC best bets.
UFC Best Bets for Blanchard vs. Fiorot
Blanchfield ML + Over 1.5 rounds (-135; DraftKings)
Erin Blanchfield is once again commanding respect at the betting window. Since opening as a -140 favorite, her odds soared as high as -200 before finding resistance. This parlay is a solid way to massage the price back into the range of the opening number.
There is no denying that the Manon Fiorot will be her biggest test to date. She has won 11 straight fights and has rightfully closed as the betting favorite in all six of her UFC wins. But Blanchfield has proven to be a different breed, breaking through the top of the division by chaining one dominant victory after the next.
This bout boils down to Blanchfield’s ability to break Fiorot’s stellar 91% takedown defense. “Coldblooded” is a pressure fighter who uses a jab and high kick to soften up the opposition before forcing the fight into the grappling realm.
The five-round duration of Saturday night’s main event makes Fiorot’s task of keeping the fight standing an exhausting chore. Fiorot faded hard in the third round against Rose Namajunas. I will heed the signal that her cardio might not hold up after being taxed by a barrage of takedown attempts.
Playing Blanchfield and the over 1.5 rounds correlates to her most probable path to victory without having to risk whether or not she ultimately gets the finish.
UFC Fight Night Best Bets
Algeo Over Nelson by Decision (+125; FanDuel)
There is nothing lowkey about Algeo's brash style inside the Octagon, but his recent 4-1 run also doesn’t get the attention it deserves. His opponent, Kyle Nelson, is coming off two consecutive upset victories where he cashed as more than a +200 underdog in both fights.
Knowing when to back off a profitable fighter is a crucial aspect of betting MMA. There is always that voice that wants to chase one more big win. That being said, this is the spot where the money train goes off the rails for Nelson.
This fight should be fireworks early, but Algeo’s offensive tenacity will wear down his opponent as the fight progresses. His arsenal of kicks, combinations and knees up the middle will leave Nelson no choice but to operate at a much more frenetic pace than suits him.
The striking statistics tell the story. Not only is Algeo the far more accurate striker (52%-44%), but he out-lands Nelson by almost a 2 to 1 margin (6.11 - 3.46 SLpM). I am betting we see a clean win for Algeo that hits the scorecards.
Emmers Over Landwehr by Decision (+150; BetMGM)
We are rounding our card by backing another fighter who is much more talented than his record shows. Jamall Emmers’ (3-3 UFC) could easily be 5-1. It’s never talent that holds the inconsistent southpaw back. He ended up on the wrong end of suspect scorecards against Jack Jenkins, and made some questionable decisions which led to a submission loss to Pat Sabatini.
My point is not that he deserves to be 5-1. It’s that he has a history of allowing his opponents to make the fight closer than it should be.
That’s why I see value on the decision prop at +150. Along with his speed and athletic advantages, Emmers is technically superior wherever the fight goes. His counter-striking at range should punish Landwehr for marching forward, by connecting consistently with crisp counters.
After Emmers boxes him up for a round or two, Landwehr will be left to resort to his durability as a last-ditch effort to turn the fight into a battle of attrition. Trust me, I am perfectly fine with banking on Landwehr eating some big shots and coming back for more.
We all have fallen victim to recency bias in the past. I am not going to let Emmer’s 49-second knockout of Dennis Buzukja cloud my judgment. Landwehr is a very tough out and four of Emmers’ six fights in the UFC have been decided via decision. At 40% implied odds, there is enough value to bet the favorite will get the nod from the judges after being pushed for three rounds.
Malkoun Over Petroski by Decision (+100, DraftKings)
This won’t be a fight of the night candidate, but you have to grab value where you find it. Jacob Malkoun steps into the Octagon with one intention - to wrestle his way to victory. His blue-collar approach doesn’t get fans leaping out of their seats, but it’s consistently effective.
Safe bets don’t exist in mixed martial arts. However, backing a fighter with strong offensive wrestling can reduce variance, especially in advantageous matchups.
As a -250 favorite, Malkoun fits the bill.
The last time we saw Petroski, he lasted only 66 seconds before getting brutally slept by Michel Pereira. Playing against fighters coming off knockout losses is a decent angle, but this matchup is more about Malkoun’s cardio advantage than anything else.
Malkoun has controlled his opponents for nearly 60% of his time in the cage since entering the UFC. If he can log over seven minutes of control time against a guy like Branden Allen (No.6-ranked middleweight), we will see a lot of Malkoun in dominant positions. Considering Petroski’s wrestling will be neutralized by a more effective grappler, I don’t see how the underdog can consistently win rounds.
All three of Malkoun’s UFC wins have come via the scorecards, so zeroing in on his decision prop at even money is a great way to maximize Malkoun’s value.
