UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Top Picks for Allen vs. Curtis 2
The UFC returns to the Apex for one more fight night card before next week’s highly anticipated UFC 300. The main event features a middleweight rematch where sixth-ranked Branden Allen looks to avenge a 2021 TKO loss to Chris Curtis. The 13-fight card provides plenty of betting opportunities, including a few live underdogs which I've zeroed in on for this week’s UFC best bets.
Top Pick for Allen vs. Curtis 2
Curtis ML vs. Allen (+180; DraftKings)
I’m sure the UFC didn’t have to ask Curtis twice to step in on short notice to face Allen in Saturday’s main event. Since Curtis stopped Allen back in 2021, the two fighters' careers have taken very different paths.
Allen has rocketed up the rankings during an impressive 6-0 run, highlighted by five submission victories. On the other hand, the road for Curtis has featured much tougher terrain. It’s been one step forward and one step back, as tough decision losses have followed each victory during his frustrating 3-2 run. While this bout is billed as a revenge spot for Allen, I expect Curtis to seize the opportunity to make up lost ground since the first encounter.
Allen’s recipe for success is quite simple. He wants to get the fight on the mat, where he can swarm his opponent with transitions until he finds an opening for a rear-naked choke. Despite the recent improvements in his overall striking, Allen's ability to win fights is still heavily reliant on his grappling.
Jan 20, 2024; Toronto, Canada, USA; Chris Curtis (red glove) fights Marc-Andre Barriault (blue gloves) during UFC 297 at ScotiaBank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
That’s a massive liability against Curtis, who stuffs takedowns at a 92.3% rate (eighth best in the UFC). Allen failed on all three takedown attempts in their previous matchup and logged only 18 seconds of control time before Curtis finished him off on the feet. In less than three years, has the gap between these two fighters widened to the point where Allen is justified as a -205 favorite?
I’m betting that it has not. I expect Curtis to keep the fight standing, where his pocket boxing will pound Allen with hard hooks and repetitive rips to the body. “The Action Man” averages close to six significant strikes per minute and holds enough power in his punches to win rounds on damage in case the outcome lands in the laps of the judges. I think it’s likely another finish for Curtis, but there's enough value at +180 to grab the dog on the moneyline.
UFC Fight Night Best Bets
De Randamie ML vs. Dumont (+114; DraftKings)
There are two types of people betting on this fight: those lining up to fade a fighter off a long layoff and those who see the value it creates in this matchup. I’m firmly entrenched in the latter camp.
The last time we saw Germaine de Randamie in the Octagon, she was tapping out former bantamweight champion Juliana Pena in 2020. In her seven years with the UFC, de Randamie has compiled a 7-2 record with her only losses coming against the greatest women’s mixed martial artist of all time, Amanda Nunes.
De Randamie is a highly decorated kickboxer with a wealth of experience against elite competition. And while it’s fair to assume that she won’t be the same fighter after two and half years of inactivity, I still feel comfortable that de Randamie's striking will be enough to get the best of Dumont.
Dumont’s stand-up is predicated on a patient approach that baits her opponent into taking unnecessary risks before taxing them with a solid right cross the second she lunges into range. When De Randamie’s credentialed kickboxing nullifies her attempts at controlling the distance, Dumont will look to dirty up the fight. It could be an effective strategy to shift momentum, but de Randamie’s power ensures that she can win rounds by landing more damaging shots throughout the fight.
I don’t subscribe to the notion that de Randamie would stage a comeback if her tools have eroded to the point where she can’t compete at a high level, and the market seems to agree. The odds have continued to move in her direction after having started the week as high as +164. Don’t let the layoff scare you off a solid bet. De Randamie is the better fighter and even deserves to be the favorite.
Argueta ML vs. Matsumoto (+145; Caesars)
It will be evident early in this fight whether or not I'm on the right side. When fighters come to the UFC, it’s often difficult for them to deal with the caliber of offensive wrestling their opponents possess. That’s what makes Dan Argueta such an enticing underdog.
Jean Matsumoto comes into his UFC debut with a 14-0 career record. He has a very well-rounded game, but he isn’t ready for the relentless pressure heading his way. Argueta averages 2.54 takedowns per three-round fight and recorded two takedowns in six attempts in his last bout against Miles Johns.
Argueta is going to get Matsumoto on his back. And when he does, Argueta can apply pressure from top position to methodically grind Matsumoto out.
In his last bout on Dana White’s Contender Series, Matsumoto was controlled on the ground for over three minutes by Kasey Tanner. That gives us a clear snapshot of how this fight could also play out, and it bodes very well for Argueta to implement his perfect game plan with ease. If the market wants to give me an underdog with a grappling advantage against a UFC debutant, I’m prepared to make the sportsbooks pay for it.
You can lock in your bet on Argueta at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up for a new account below!
Morono and Campbell ML parlay (+108; DraftKings)
Alex Morono is my most confident play on this entire card. He's a fun fighter who throws with decent power, and Morono does his best work when he’s in rhythm, working behind his jab and using his footwork to set up his advances.
His opponent, Court McGee, has red flags everywhere. He's pushing 40 years old and coming off consecutive losses in which he was knocked out in the first round. Morono certainly has the power to make it three straight knockout losses for McGee, but he also has the technical boxing to run away on the cards even if McGee’s chin can hold up.
May 13, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tim Means (red gloves) fights Alex Morono (blue gloves) in a welterweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
The second leg of this parlay features Charlie Campbell over Trevor Peek. This fight screams fireworks! Peek is a fan favorite whose brawling style has built him a nice following, but against a fighter with the sharp-striking and technical boxing of Campbell, I could see Peek getting pieced up and put to sleep.
“The Cannibal” is coming off an impressive first-round KO where he displayed the patience to set up the big finish before uncorking a devastating sequence of power shots right on the button. This will be another showcase fight for the Longo-Weidman MMA prospect where Campbell’s power and accuracy will allow him to tee off on the less-polished Peek.
