Following up one of the best events of the year, the UFC returns to the Apex Facility for Fight Night this Saturday.

Heavyweight action headlines the 13-fight card with Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura scheduled to throw down in the five-round main event. Saturday’s fights provide bettors with a solid mix of experienced veterans and up-and-coming prospects.

I will break down the best betting angles to exploit in my UFC Vegas 88 best bets.

Tai Tuivasa Over Marcin Tybura by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-110; DraftKings)

Who wouldn’t want to spend Saturday betting on a fighter who guzzles beer out of a shoe? Tuivasa’s post-win celebrations instantly made him a fan favorite during his rise up the rankings, but three consecutive losses has bettors hesitant to trust him against No. 10-ranked Tybura.

This fight is a good example of the market trying to reconcile the strong level of competition in Tuivasa’s recent losses with the impact of getting finished in three straight fights.

Here’s why I’m confident that dynamic is providing betting value on Tuivasa at this price.

Tai Tuivasa

Sep 3, 2022; Paris, FRANCE; Ciryl Gane (red gloves) and Tai Tuivasa (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Accor Arena. Mandatory Credit: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Tuivasa plateaued during his five-fight win streak before his recent skid knocked him back into the middle tier of the rankings. He wasn’t able to overcome Ciryl Gane’s freakish athleticism, Sergei Pavlovich’s power, or the length of Alexander Volkov.

His opponent this time around is a well-rounded fighter, but Tybura lacks the elite traits that gave Tuivasa trouble against the division’s best. That’s an important factor when considering both fighters’ path to victory.

I’m willing to buy low on Tuivasa against an opponent who isn’t a big enough threat on the feet to stop him from crashing the pocket. Tybura hasn’t knocked down an opponent in his last sixteen fights. Tuivasa is 4-0 in his last four as the betting favorite, which supports his ability to deliver when he isn’t facing top heavyweights.

The last time we saw Tybura, he only lasted 1:13 with Tom Aspinall, so expecting him to weather the early storm against another heavy-handed heavyweight is asking a bit too much from the 38-year-old.

Jafel Filho Over Ode Osbourne by Submission (+175; DraftKings)

Ode Osbourne’s fights are always entertaining, but his reckless approach has recently cost him more wins than it has earned. He has lost two of his last three fights, and three of his six career losses have come via submission. This matchup sets up perfectly for Jafel Filho, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist who earned his first UFC victory by locking in an arm triangle in his last bout.

Filho also displayed the mental fortitude to overcome early adversity, something he could face against Osbourne, who has a reputation for coming out hot. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Filho getting the better of striking exchanges by backing up Osbourne with stinging leg kicks and using hard combinations to set up the inevitable takedown. Once Filho has him in his world, it’s only a matter of time before forces Osbourne to tap out.

Seven of Filho’s last 11 victories have come via submission, so I am happy to utilize the prop market to bet a moderate favorite at a much better price.

Gerald Meerschaert Over Bryan Barberena by Submission (+110; DraftKings) 

This will be Gerald Meerschaert’s 53rd professional fight. The 36-year-old veteran has 27 submission victories in 35 career wins. He has lost three of his last four fights but comes into this bout against Barberena as a heavy -245 favorite.

It’s only the second time since 2018 that Meerschaert is being positioned as the betting favorite, which tells you all you need to know about his opponent.

After being submitted in consecutive fights, Bryan Barberena moved to middleweight only to drop his debut. A three-fight losing streak and switching weight classes are classic red flags, but the stylistic matchup favors Meerschaert as well. Barberena has struggled defending takedowns throughout this career, and is now competing in a higher weight class. In his first fight at 185 lbs., he allowed Makhmud Muradov to set a new middleweight record by taking him down 13 times in 16 attempts.

Meerschaert won’t have any problem using his five-reach advantage to keep Barberna at bay before deciding to plant his opponent on the mat. Meerschaert’s last seven wins have come via submission, so this prop was an easy bet to make at plus money on a big favorite.

Parlay: Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa - Fight to Go the Distance + Pannie Kianzad vs. Macy Chiasson - Fight to Go the Distance (+109; DraftKings)

There are sweats, and there is sweating out UFC fights to go the distance. In most sports, a bet on the over is correlated to more action, but in mixed martial arts it’s the opposite. We are intently watching the seconds tick off the clock hoping somebody doesn’t get knocked out or submitted. Thus far in 2024, fights with closing totals of 2.5 rounds are 42-18 to the over. Here is why I selected these two for this week’s parlay.

Our first leg consists of two fighters who can assert their wrestling and chew up some clock. Also, the moneyline odds imply that we are headed for a competitive fight which certainly helps. However, the main factor is that the betting underdog (Ange Loosa) has never been finished in his career.

All three of his losses have come via decision, and his last seven bouts have been decided by the judges' scorecards as well. In Dana White’s Contender Series, Loosa went the distance with current welterweight title contender Jack Della Maddalena. Both these fighters have the durability to go a full three rounds in a back-and-forth battle.

Our other leg is a Bantamweight matchup in the women’s division. The current odds for this fight to go the distance have been bet as high -330, indicating market agreement that we are on the right track.

Much like Loosa (whom we discussed above), Pannie Kianzad is the live underdog with a track record of pushing fights to the distance. All eight of Kianzad’s UFC fights have been decided via decision. She faces an opponent who hasn’t won a fight via stoppage since 2019.

With neither fighter having much finishing ability, this fight is a prime target for a parlay.

UFC Best Bets