Las Vegas welcomes the UFC back home for a 10-fight UFC Fight Night card this weekend, taking place at the cozy confines of the Apex.

The main event will feature a rematch between two top-10 heavyweights, Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac. There might not be a ton of star power, but there are still some dynamite matchups with intriguing betting value.

In this week’s UFC Best Bets, I am looking to cut down the odds of some big favorites by targeting the method of victory. Before we stop in the prop market, let’s break down the main event. 

Top Pick for Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac

Spivac ML (-160; BetMGM) 

The passion for revenge can be timeless. Four years after dropping a decision loss to Tybura, Serghei Spivac gets an opportunity to even the score in our main event. This time around, the odds makers agree the tables will be turned on Tybura in more ways than one.

A big reason why is that we have a reversal of roles in regards to which fighter is in his prime. Spivac is now 29, coming off a high-profile loss to No.2 ranked Cyril Gane. On the other side, Tybura is settling into gatekeeper status at 38. Age isn’t everything, but a nine-year gap is significant considering where these two heavyweights sit in their careers.

Since fighting Tybura in 2020, Spivac has surged to a 6-2 record with his only losses to current and former interim heavyweight champions, Tom Aspinall and Cyril Gane. This is a good example of being able to find value in a fighter coming off a bad loss when they are taking a significant step down in competition. I’m not surprised the market has moved strongly in his direction after opening this fight close to a pick’em.

That said, Spivac still has to get it done inside the cage. This is where his size, strength, and overall advancements in his grappling will come into play. Spivac averages 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and converted on 15 of 20 attempts (75%) over his last three wins. He now holds the highest takedown conversion rate in the heavyweight division (64.3%).

He is going to get Tybura on his back, open him up with damaging ground and pound, all while looking to lock in a submission. I’m expecting a finish, but there is no reason to add unnecessary risk when the moneyline odds are this reasonable. 

More Bets for UFC Fight Night

Barlow to win Inside the Distance vs. Veretennikov (-110, DraftKings)

If you don’t know about Danny Barlow yet, you’re going to find out on Saturday. The undefeated 29-year-old prospect battered Josh Quinlan mercilessly for a TKO win in his UFC debut. He gets to open up more eyes as a -380 favorite against short-notice opponent Nikolay Veretennikov. There are areas where Veretennikov can dirty up this fight, but ultimately the explosive striking from the man with the nickname “Left Hand 2 God” will be too much to overcome.

Once you see Barlow in the Octagon, there is no denying the raw talent is there. His athleticism, speed, and creativity jump off the screen faster than his fight-ending sequences. The southpaw punished Quinlan with precision, outstriking him to the head 77-22 with 81% accuracy.

Against Veretennikov, not only is he the better athlete by a wide margin, but he will also operate with a five-inch reach advantage. Considering Veretennikova took the fight with only two weeks to prepare, everything is lined up for another showcase KO for the big favorite. The difference between the KO and inside-the-distance price is minimal, so I am taking the extra coverage in case the fight ends via club and sub.

Rosa to win by decision vs. Kianzad (-135; DraftKings)

We are not getting much of a discount from Karol Rosa’s moneyline odds, which is a pretty big signal that this one is very likely to go the full three rounds.

The over (2.5 rounds) has continued to take the money all week. After sitting at -400 on Monday, the one-way traffic on the over has forced the books to balloon the odds as high as -520 in some shops. That being said, it makes all the sense in the world to take the shorter price on the decision prop.

Rosa’s game is built for a three-round fight. The longer the fight, her ability to physically wear Kianzad down will become more and more impactful. Kianzad, a solid boxer, has yet to finish her opponent in 10 UFC fights. She simply can’t win by striking alone unless she is up against an opponent who is to engage. Rosa may be able to win that type of fight, but she has the tools to make Kianzad fight her in a phone booth.

I’m confident Rosa can utilize leg kicks to score at distance, rough her up in the clinch, and secure takedowns (Kianzad was taken down five times in the last two fights). Rosa’s strength and aggression will neutralize Kianzad’s offense by keeping her back against the cage. It’s a sustainable game plan for Rosa to win rounds, and get back in the win column.

Zalal to win by decision vs. Errens (-135; DraftKings) 

Youseff Zalal is at the prime age where fighters can really start to take off.

The 27-year-old is coming off the performance of his career, where he dismantled veteran striker, Billy Quarantilo. While I believe the market is overvaluing Zalal after finishing a high-profile opponent, I’m not going to sprint to the window to bet against a -410 favorite either. Instead, I will play against the odds of him finishing a very durable opponent in Jarno Errens.

Errens has only been stopped once in 19 professional fights. Zalal is unquestionably the most skilled fighter he has faced to date. However, we can’t overlook that Zalal’s safest path to victory is to exploit Erren’s most glaring weakness - his takedown defense (28%).

On the feet, Errens will use his kickboxing to try and curtail Zalal from pressuring. The takedowns will come, but I am not sold Zalal completely washes Errens on the ground. Errens’ willingness to attack from the bottom can open up opportunities to get back to his feet or at least stall Zalal’s grappling sequences. There's a bit of recency bias at play after Zalal finished Quarantillo so easily, and I am willing to bet Errens can make it to the final bell.

There's a bit of recency bias at play after Zalal finished Quarantillo so easily, and I am willing to bet Errens can make it to the final bell.