The UFC continues its run of Fight Nights at the Apex Facility this Saturday.
Former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and Amanda Ribas headline the 13-fight card filled with prospects looking for a statement win to propel themselves up the rankings. This week I am targeting two props and a pair of underdogs in my UFC Vegas 89 best bets.
UFC Vegas 89 Best Bets - Namajunas vs. Ribas
Namajunas Over Ribas by KO/TKO (+155; FanDuel)
Namajunas is one of the most accomplished fighters to compete in women's MMA. However, she still finds her career at a crossroads after a lackluster flyweight debut resulted in her second consecutive loss. A win puts her one or two fights away from competing for the belt again, but a third-straight loss will make it incredibly difficult to maintain relevance in her new division.
Betting this fight comes down to your expectation of which version of Namajunas we will see on Saturday night. Here’s why I’m expecting the return of “Thug Rose” in a very big way.
Ribas’ biggest liability is her striking defense. She has poor head movement and relies on pressure to force her opponents out of position. That won’t happen against Namajunas. The two-time former strawweight champion has elite footwork. She is the most cerebral striker Ribas has faced to date and will be able to counter her aggression with precision and accuracy.
Ribas isn’t built to handle the striking acumen of Namajunas for five rounds. The accumulation of damage will overwhelm her both physically and mentally. Three of Ribas’ four career losses have come via knockout. I am not 100% positive the former champ’s power will translate long-term against durable flyweights, but this is a matchup made for her to exploit Ribas' questionable chin.
Best Bets for UFC Vegas 89 Main Card
Dobson Over Shahbazyan (+170; DraftKings)
Understanding a fighter's limitations can be very useful in finding value in a live underdog. Edmen Shahbazyan was on course to be the next big thing in the middleweight division after starting his UFC career with three straight finishes. Once the promotion pitted him against ranked opponents, his poor defensive grappling and limited cardio were exposed in a major way.
Those same challenges can still be exploited against lower-level competition. Shahbazyan was taken down six times in his latest loss to Anthony Hernandez.
I will concede that Hernandez’s grappling is far superior than he will face Saturday, but A.J. Dobson still nails takedowns at a 75% clip. He is a powerful wrestler with a high motor, a combination that Shahbazyan has struggled to overcome throughout his career.
Dobson’s +170 price tag is a product of an underwhelming 1-2 record, but I contend it doesn’t properly reflect his ability to plant Shahbazyan on his back, and proceed to ground and pound his way to an upset win.
Pajuelo Over Padilla (+142; DraftKings)
Fight Night cards almost always deliver one banger that ends up being an all-out war. This one will be it. These two featherweight prospects have combined for 23 career victories with only three coming by the way of the scorecards.
The total opening at 1.5 rounds is a strong signal that the books are expecting a non-stop action, and that plays directly into the punishing hands of the underdog.
Luis Pajuelo’s path to victory is dependent on his ability to close distance as Fernando Padilla tries to utilize his length to keep him on the end of his strikes. The volume and accuracy numbers paint a clear picture of how Pajuelo can work through his opponent’s seven-reach advantage.
Padilla connects on only 38% of his significant strikes, which should leave plenty of openings for Pajuelo to crash in with his crushing boxing combinations and crippling knees. He unleashes 9.51 significant strikes per minute, and also has no problem walking his opponents down and forcing the action. If this ends up being a three-round war, I’m willing to bet he has the bigger moments and comes closer to forcing a stoppage.
The bottom line is - Pajuelo fights like the rent is due. That’s not only a style that shows well for the judges, but it’s the type of mentality I look for when pushing my money in on an underdog.
Johns Over Gibson by Decision (+180; DraftKings)
It’s hard to root against a guy like Cody Gibson, who spent close to a decade working his way back to the UFC after being cut in 2015. Once we strip out the emotion, it’s clear Miles Johns is the side, even on short notice.
I expect this fight to take place primarily on the feet, where he showed considerable improvement in his last bout against Dan Argueta. I won’t go as far as to say that Johns is on the verge of a breakout, but he is definitely the fighter that carries more upside.
After opening in the -120 range, Johns continues to take money due to his edge in both technical striking and knockout power. Gibson’s best chance to put a pace on Johns in hopes his cardio isn’t up to par after accepting the fight on short notice. While it’s certainly a plausible scenario, I see it as one that will lead more toward Gibson extending the fight than winning it.
Even at 36 years old, Gibson is both game and durable.
That’s why I am taking the plus money on Johns’ decision prop as opposed to laying the money line price. He will fight until the final bell in a valiant effort, but my bet is the better fighter getting the nod on the scorecards.
