We nailed the Week 3 Falcons correlation with Kyle Pitts and Desmond Ridder Receiving/Passing overs hitting and Bijan Robinson’s rushing under hitting as well.
Unfortunately, Javonte Williams and Mark Andrews came up just shy on their overs. The weather turned sour later in the week in Baltimore, which made locking in the Andrews over a bit of a hard one to swallow.
Regardless, the process of committing to multiple props from the same game – which correlate with each other – has paid off twice in a row now, and it’s a strategy we’ll keep employing going forward in our picks.
If you already know lots about Underdog and are a grizzled veteran of the pick’em streets, please bypass this next part and get right to the picks – which I want you to critique vehemently before ultimately tailing.
However, if you’re new to Underdog and are wondering what the heck a pick’em is, I’ve got a little primer for you below.
What is a Pick’em
Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best-ball tournaments and their snake draft format…
…but did you know they also offer single-player daily fantasy pick ‘em contests?
These work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
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Now, let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season…
Matthew Stafford higher than 256.5 passing yards
Much like last week, we’re starting off by attacking a passing offense with two props that correlate a QB and his WR both going over on their respective yardage.
Matthew Stafford did take a step back last week, completing just 55% of his passes against the Bengals. However, even in that game, Stafford was still able to throw for 269 yards and 8.2 yards per attempt. The Bengals are also widely known as one of the toughest defenses to pass against in the league, with their DC Lou Anarumo employing a ton of complex defensive schemes.
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (91) pressures Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) in the fourth quarter during a Week 3 NFL football game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals, Monday, Sept. 25, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bengals won, 19-16.
This week is a different story, as the Colts do have a solid pass rush (12 sacks on the year) but a weaker secondary. As a unit, they rank just 22nd in yards per pass attempt against and have allowed the seventh most passing yards against overall. Stafford is currently projected for over 270.0 passing yards in the Fantasy Life projections for Week 4, making this one of the best edges to attack on the slate.
Play to: 262.5
Tutu Atwell higher than 51.5 receiving yards
In terms of which receiver we should use to pair Stafford with for our correlation play, the decision this week was easy. While both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell continue to dominate the targets from Stafford, Nakua’s props are all far more elevated in Week 4 – with his receiving totals on Underdog coming in around 20.0 to 22.0 yards higher than Atwell’s (reminder, Underdog’s props do move throughout the week). That’s all despite Atwell actually posting better usage numbers than Nakua against the Bengals.
Atwell’s 28% team target share and 37% air yards share led the Rams receivers in Week 3, and for the season, Atwell has now posted 50 yards or more in every single game while maintaining an elite 14.3 yards per reception mark. Just like Stafford, an over on Atwell also allows us to attack this weaker Colts' secondary unit that has already allowed the seventh most yards to opposing WRs. Atwell’s current projection in the Fantasy Life Prop Tool sits at over 60.0 yards for the week, making him an equally tantalizing over to add to our Rams stack.
Play to: 55.5
Zack Moss higher than 66.5 rushing yards
While it’s not necessarily a must that we take a player from the other side of this game, fitting a Zack Moss over in with Atwell and Stafford makes a lot of sense from a game script perspective. If Moss does have a big day on the ground, that’s more than likely going to push the Rams (who are not really efficient at running the ball to begin with) into more passing.
From a matchup perspective, the Rams also rank just 24th in yards per carry against and are 26th right now in defensive DVOA. Moss will likely lose a little usage to Anthony Richardson this week, but the former Bill has also quietly turned into one of the most productive backs in football, posting a snap share of 87% and a carry percentage of 86% through two games.
Sep 24, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (21) rushes during the first half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
It’s also hard to see the Colts wanting to run Richardson that much in his first game back from a concussion, as well.
Moss has a big projection of 76.0 yards for Week 4 on Fantasy Life, and using his higher allows us to take advantage of this edge and complete our Rams/Colts stack with another correlating play.
Play to: 69.5
Mac Jones higher than 211.5 passing yards
The Patriots' offense dialed back the passing a little bit in Week 3 as Mac Jones threw the ball just 29 times and managed just 201 yards in the win against the Jets. Poor weather and an opponent who couldn’t get a first down if God himself was playing wide receiver did have something to do with the output.
In his first two weeks, while playing against opponents who have winning records, Jones averaged 48 pass attempts and around 275 passing yards per game. The Patriots eventually fell behind in both those contests and quickly reverted to more up-tempo and pass-friendly play calling. I fully expect that trend to reassert itself in Week 4 against the Cowboys. On top of this game being played in a dome, Dallas is a -7.0 favorite, and opponents facing the Cowboys averaged 34 attempts last season. It may not be pretty, but Jones should drop back far more in Week 4 than he did in Week 3 and eventually sail over this number.
Play to: 219.5
Kendrick Bourne higher than 33.5 receiving yards
While targeting New England’s rag-tag group of receivers with a higher is somewhat risky, the correlation we get when pairing the higher on a Patriots WR – with the Jones higher – makes it worth the risk. Kendrick Bourne is also a player who has looked extremely solid to start the year. He was clearly Jones’ favorite target in Week 1 against the Eagles, where he commanded 11 targets and went for 64 yards against another tough NFC East defense, and leads the Patriots with a 32% air yards share on the season.
Bourne should also be helped by the fact he’ll be facing a somewhat beleaguered Dallas secondary that lost its best corner last week in Trevon Diggs – and allowed two Arizona Cardinals WRs to go for over 60 yards. With a 36.6-yard projection on Fantasy Life, a Bourne higher lets us correlate twice on the same card and makes for a solid way to round out the five-way play for Week 4.
Play to 34.5
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