The action doesn't stop with the conclusion of the regular season, and Matt LaMarca is here to help with his Underdog Playoff Best Ball Picks and Strategy:
We have officially made it to the NFL postseason. It’s a wonderful time for football fans and an even better time for fantasy players.
It’s no secret that the end of the regular season can be a bit of a slog. This year was particularly tough, with very few games in Week 18 carrying any real meaning.
But the playoffs? That’s a completely different story. We don’t have to worry about starters resting or questionable motivation; it’s do-or-die from here on out.
The playoffs also bring about a new set of contests to choose from. Of course, that includes all of the playoff Guillotine Leagues™—which we will have ample coverage of—but there are plenty of other contests to indulge in as well.
Underdog Playoff Best Ball Format
Underdog is widely considered the leader in the best ball format, and they are unsurprisingly rolling out a host of big contests for the playoffs. That includes “The Gauntlet,” which features a $2M total prize pool, as well as tournaments like “The Mitten” and others.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know to attack these tournaments on Underdog.
The big difference between best ball and the Guillotine format is the lack of in-season management (though you can opt for no manual team management in the Guillotine Leagues postseason contests, too). On Underdog, you are stuck with the team you drafted for better or worse.
Things get started with a six-player snake draft. Each draft will consist of 10 rounds—five starters and five bench players. Your starting lineup will consist of one quarterback, one running back, two receivers, and one flex each week. There is no need to start a tight end, though they are eligible for your flex spot.
Because it’s a best ball format, you are not required to submit a starting lineup before kickoff. Instead, your starting lineup is optimized based on how your players fare in their games. In other words, if you have five receivers on your roster, your two starters will automatically be selected as the two highest scorers that you have at the position each week.
Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) catches a pass for a two-point conversion against the Carolina Panthers in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
After the draft, you’ll compete against the five players you drafted against in the Wild Card round. The two teams with the most points after all the games are concluded will advance, while the other four teams are eliminated.
For the divisional round, the remaining teams are then sorted into new 10-team groups. This time, only the highest-scoring team will advance, with the other nine being eliminated.
The same process occurs in the conference championships. New 10-team groups are created from the divisional round winners, and the highest-scoring team in the conference championships from each group will advance to the finals.
Those fortunate enough to make it that far will be placed into a single group, with the highest-scoring team during the Super Bowl taking home the grand prize.
Playoff Best Ball Strategy For Underdog Fantasy
The big difference between regular season and postseason contests is that 50% of the player pool is going to be eliminated basically every week. There are 12 teams to choose from in the Wild Card round, eight in the divisional round, four in the conference championships, and two in the Super Bowl. If the players that you draft are getting eliminated from the playoffs, they’re not going to earn you any additional points moving forward.
That creates a delicate balance. You need to score enough points to advance each week, but you also need to do it with the right players. It doesn’t matter if you win in the Wild Card round if you don’t have enough players to field a team moving forward.
That makes choosing the right players paramount. Stacking is a necessity. You want to give yourself a chance of having a full starting roster during the Super Bowl. If you’re not drafting that way, you’re not giving yourself a chance at winning the big money.
Of course, that is easier said than done. The vast majority of teams know this heading into the drafts, which makes getting the best players on the best teams very tough to accomplish. Add in the fact that the two “best” teams in football won’t play in the Wild Card round, and it’s tough to build a lineup that checks all the boxes.
Which teams you’re able and willing to target comes down to which draft pick you’re assigned and how much risk you’re willing to assume. For example, how do you approach a player like Justin Jefferson? He’s undoubtedly the best fantasy receiver that made it to the postseason, but the Vikings are the No. 5 seed in the NFC. Is he going to be a one-and-done, or do you think the Vikings can make a run? If not, do you want to spend an early pick on a player who might not be around in the big-money rounds?
Complicating matters further, how do you approach the Chiefs and Lions? They’re going to give you zero production in the Wild Card round, which is going to put you at a disadvantage in your initial six-team leagues. However, they could pay huge dividends if you manage to make it out of your initial draft and into the divisional round.
Teams To Target in Underdog Playoff Best Ball Drafts
Which teams to target can be a bit intimidating, but fortunately, we have the Vegas oddsmakers available to help.
Using the consensus odds, we can determine how likely each team is to win their respective conference. Using the conference odds is better than the Super Bowl odds because we don’t care if our players actually win the Super Bowl; we just want them to get there.
- Lions: +120 to win NFC (45.45%)
- Chiefs: +150 to win AFC (40.0%)
- Ravens: +290 to win AFC (25.64%)
- Bills: +300 to win AFC (25.0%)
- Eagles: +330 to win NFC (23.26%)
- Vikings: +750 to win NFC (11.76%)
- Packers: +950 to win NFC (9.52%)
- Buccaneers: +1100 to win NFC (8.33%)
- Chargers: +1200 to win AFC (7.69%)
- Rams: +1500 to win NFC (6.25%)
- Commanders: +1800 to win NFC (5.26%)
- Broncos: +2800 to win AFC (3.45%)
- Texans: +3000 to win AFC (3.23%)
- Steelers: +3500 to win AFC (2.78%)
There are some key takeaways we can glean from this info:
The NFC is more “open” than the AFC
From an odds standpoint, the AFC is very much the “haves and have-nots.” One of the Chiefs, Ravens, or Bills is considered extremely likely to win the conference. Their combined implied probability of over 90% doesn’t leave much for the other four squads. The Chargers are a slight step above the other three teams, but the Broncos, Texans, and Steelers are extreme long shots.
Dec 29, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs with the ball during the fourth quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The NFC still features two heavyweights at the top in the Lions and Eagles, but things are much more condensed after that. The other five squads all check in somewhere between +750 and +1800, giving them implied probabilities between 11.76% and 5.26%.
In my eyes, that makes the NFC a bit more ripe for an upset. I’m looking to build my rosters around one of the “big three” in the AFC, but I’m more willing to take shots in the NFC. If I’m lucky enough to be able to build around the Chiefs, Ravens, or Bills, I don’t mind taking stabs on teams like the Buccaneers, Rams, or Commanders on the other side.
The bye teams reign supreme
The lack of a first-round matchup is obviously a severe downside with these squads, but they remain the most likely teams to run deep in the postseason. They will avoid the primary contenders for their thrones in the divisional round—the Chiefs won’t play the Bills or Ravens, the Lions won’t play the Eagles—and they’ll have home-field advantage in the conference championships.
You can’t pair both teams together and realistically hope to advance past the first round, but you can absolutely build around one of them. Remember, the Wild Card round is the easiest round to advance from on Underdog. Two of the six teams from each draft will make it forward (33%), but that drops to just 10% in the subsequent rounds. If you have a team that makes it to the divisional rounds with a Chiefs or Lions stack waiting in the wings, that’s a potential juggernaut moving forward.
More Playoff Best Ball Strategy Notes
I’ve already completed a few drafts on Underdog to prepare for this article, so I have a few other pieces of advice to consider:
Tackling the QB spot
In most drafts, the first three picks off the board are going to be Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts. Considering the odds and the fact that all three players will be in action in the first round, that makes sense.
If you draft one of those three players—congratulations! You don’t need to draft any more quarterbacks. You’re now building your roster around either the Bills, Ravens, or Eagles making it to the Super Bowl, and you should try your best to fill out your roster with players from the other conference.
If you don’t get one of those three, you should now take two quarterbacks. Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes are the next clear targets to build around, and as discussed previously, building around the Chiefs and Lions is awesome once you get to the divisional round. However, you cannot take a zero at quarterback in the playoffs. You’re going to need to draft a replacement while your stud waits in the wings.
The last spot is the toughest to approach. From an odds standpoint, Sam Darnold is the most likely remaining QB to make the Super Bowl, followed by Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, and Justin Herbert. If you’re in that spot, grabbing two and hoping for the best is all you can really do.
Build around the “best case” scenario
This goes hand-in-hand with how to approach the QB position. Let’s say that you’re lucky enough to land the No. 1 pick and select Allen as your QB. If the Bills don’t make it to the Super Bowl, you’re basically dead in the water regardless of what your lineup looks like.
In that scenario, you should be wary of taking any AFC players who don’t play for Buffalo, at least in the early rounds. I would never pair an Allen stack with someone like Travis Kelce, since there is exactly zero chance of both players making it to the Super Bowl.
Here is how I approached Allen in my most recent draft:
I’m not saying that’s a perfect example of how to build a team, but it’s at least trying to tell a consistent story. I have five players from the Bills, two from the Vikings, two from the Commanders, and one from the Eagles. If the Bills play any of those three teams in the Super Bowl, I’ll be able to fill out a full lineup (especially if it’s the Vikings or Commanders). Is that likely? Probably not, but I will at least have a chance to win if that situation arises.
Pay attention to the other teams in your draft
This is easier said than done, especially with just a 30-second pick timer. But you should have a general idea of which teams each of your competitors is trying to build around. At a minimum, if you know who their quarterback is, you should at least be able to decipher which pass-catchers are going to be on their radar.
ADP doesn’t really matter
The only reason that ADP “matters” is because it tells you how the market is evaluating each player. While that is good to know, it doesn’t really make a difference in how I’m going to draft.
Once you get past the first few rounds, constructing a roster that tells a cohesive story makes more sense than trying to “scoop value.” That is a big difference from regular-season best ball compared to the playoffs.
Essentially, I don’t care how far a player slips past ADP. If they don’t fit the narrative that I’m trying to tell with my lineup—and therefore don’t fit my roster construction—I’m not going to consider them.
Looking to draft? Consult our Wild Card Weekend rankings to help identify the best targets for the upcoming weekend of games!
