In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Laghezza’s Power Rankings: Variety’s the spice of life, right? Let’s mix things up a little. I built a stat-based power-rankings formula that factors in projected head-to-head betting lines and injuries to determine my top squads.
Hit me up with any feedback! We’re all friends here!
Argue the sorting of the top 4 all you’d like, it’s close as can be. Philly gets my top spot for best defense — the Eagles haven’t surrendered 24+ points in 10 weeks since their bye.
Next team to stand out of place must be Tampa Bay, but hear me out. We were on top of Todd Bowles’ schematic change off the Week 11 bye and the Bucs’ defense has dominated since. Don’t look now — TB’s leading the NFL in both scoring defense and net-yard differential by a country mile over the last month. You heard it here, Baker Mayfield is this year’s dark horse.
The gooey nougat-filled center is always going to get the most attention, I get it. Every team outside the top 15 will be missing the playoffs for a reason. The thing is, there are teams out there over .500 like the Bolts or Steelers I’d much rather need a win over than hard-charging teams with losing records like the Bengals or Jets.
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Before we get into Draft Order (the natural progression from Power Rankings, of course) check out the TWO mock drafts we put out last week:
Thor Nystrom’s 2025 mock
Matthew Freedman’s 2025 mock
And now … 2025’s Current Top-10 Draft Order:
- NY Giants
- Las Vegas
- New England
- Jacksonville
- Carolina
- Tennessee
- Cleveland
- NY Jets
- Chicago
- New Orleans
Start your daydreaming now, Giants fans! Freedman has a Big Board of his Top 50 you can start picking from!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The Blitz: Monday Night Previews
- Look Into My Crystal Ball: Play It Again, Sam
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from around our world:
🏈 Claudia and Thor dive into the College Football Bowl Games, including the first round of the CFB Playoff Bracket.
👀 Ian and Dwain bring you the Week 15 Instant NFL Recap, where they get into all the WR comeback stories and more.
🚀 How many passing TDs for Sam Darnold tonight? Dive in to the Monday Night Football Player Props.
🔮 Can Josh Allen stay on his super human run? LaMarca identifies the Early Week 16 Betting Odds.
🤷🏻 Are you ready to join the masses and bet the over on these MNF props?
The Blitz🏈💥—Monday Night Previews
Bears (4-9) at Vikings (11-2): (Updated betting odds are here) North and south, light and dark, yin and yang. Pick your favorite polar opposite—it still might fail to capture the difference in trajectory between these NFC North rivals. Winners of six straight, Minnesota’s displaying the ability to win in a number of ways, a critical trait of serious teams down the stretch. Conversely, the Bears apparently woke from their Week 7 hibernation on the wrong side of the cave, dropping seven in a row since.
As a No. 1 overall pick and new face of the franchise, Caleb Williams inevitably receives the bulk of blame. However, the fault can’t lay at the rookie’s feet alone. The Bears’ defense has not lived up to expectations whatsoever, especially of late. Remember, this was the NFL’s top-scoring defense in 2023. I understand the competition level’s been tough (GB, MIN, DET, SF), there’s just never an excuse for a month-long run this bad. Needing to beat quality teams in the league is par for the course. I’ll take the magnifying glass out in the next section, Chicago’s secondary is the target of tonight’s bet.
As far as Minnesota, all props go to the combination of Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold. The importance of rational coaching featuring forward-thinking strategies and a quarterback able to execute them cannot be overstated. Maybe most important for me, however, lies in the bounceback. After a couple of losses off the bye, Darnold went through a brutal two-game stretch (ironically against IND and JAX, two of the worst pass defenses), in which he threw five picks. Despite the grumbles, the Purple People Eaters went back in their bag, doing their thing to the tune of almost 30 points/game this month. LEAN: CHI/MIN O43 (-110)
Falcons (6-7) at Raiders (2-11): I’m not gonna do what everyone thinks I’m gonna do—and flip out, man. I couldn’t have been more excited for the 2024 Falcons. Finally, a gunslinger to facilitate the trio of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. We’re talking about a can't-miss scenario, right? Nobody alerted Atlanta to the fact, averaging an abysmal 13.3 points/game this month. And Kirk Cousins? Well, it’s been four games and 8 interceptions since he’s thrown a passing TD. We’ve all heard the veneer television analysis from boomers but this time it’s true. Has there ever been a more get-right spot in history? It’s time for the dirty birds to cook, or get out of the kitchen.
I don’t mean to hand-wave the Raiders (I do), but they deserve it. Facing a supremely competitive league featuring the single most important position in all of professional sports, Las Vegas decides to treat quarterback play as inconsequential. Never again wonder about the first sign a team is deeply unserious, bordering on malpractice. LEAN: ATL -6 (-110)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BEST BETS
Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Play It Again, Sam
THE BET: Sam Darnold Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-113) FanDuel
I alluded to the precipitous fall from grace on the part of Chicago’s defense and it’s probably worse than you’d imagine. For some reason, interim Head Coach Thomas Brown instituted a Cover-0-heavy approach recently despite obvious struggles in the secondary. Sure, it aids in delivering pressure but comes with high risks of exposing vulnerabilities deep down field—precisely what we’ve seen play out for the Bears’ defense over the last four weeks:
- 418.8 Yards Allowed Per Game: 31st
- 7.0 Yards Allowed Per Play: Last
- 44.2 Average Drive Distance: 31st
- -0.32 EPA/Dropback: 31st
- 115.6 Opposer Passer Rating: 30th
- 280.0 Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 29th
- 14.9 Yards Per Reception: Last
- 7.6 YAC Per Reception: Last
- 21 +20-Yard Completions: Last
Minnesota’s healthy on offense, playing at home on the fast track and ready to build off Sam Darnold’s recent passing—which is performing like some of my crypto holdings lately (image below).
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Don’t be shy, contact me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza with questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you! We’re here to help!
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAYER PROPS
Sharps Slow Play Falcons-Raiders on MNF
Source: Sharp Hunter
A busy Week 15 in the NFL wraps up with not one but two games on Monday Night Football.
A Monday Night Football prime-time doubleheader = an early Christmas gift for us football fans.
At Sharp Hunter, we’re tracking thousands of sharp bets on Mondays and every day of the week. With access to Sharp Hunter, you can see what games the sharpest bettors around are betting on.
The Las Vegas Raiders host the Atlanta Falcons in one of the two games on Monday night. The Falcons are a 5.5-point road favorite in a game with a 44.5-point total.
The sharps at Sharp Hunter are betting under 44.5—and we have a One-Bag Sharp Score from the sharps.
I’m betting with the sharps here on Monday Night.
Ugly game? Yep. But the under makes sense.
Since Week 11, the Falcons and Raiders are both in the bottom 13 when you look at FTN’s snaps/sec pace tool in neutral-pace situations—we’re looking at two teams playing pretty slow here as of late. Slow teams are good for the under.
The Vegas QB situation is up in the air—but whether it's a banged-up Aidan O’Connell or a healthy Desmond Ridder … not good. Would you want to bet on either one of those guys to lead their teams to big points? Not for me!
On the other side, Kirk Cousins has struggled—over the last four games he has 0 TDs and 8 INTs. It’s hard to have much faith in his chances to score many points here.
This game looks ugly … just in time for Ugly Christmas Sweater Season.
I just can’t see many points scored here given the offenses and the quarterbacks.
The sharps we track at Sharp Hunter seem to agree—they’re betting the under here.
Given the quarterbacks involved I agree—I’m tailing the sharps and playing under 44.5 on Monday night.
