Valero Texas Open 2024 Betting Breakdown

The Valero Texas Open is the last PGA event on the schedule before the Masters. For some, the event will merely be a tune-up before playing for much higher stakes next week. For others, it's a huge opportunity to either gain FedEx Cup points or go after an elusive first PGA win (and get that last-minute Augusta entry). 

This week also marks our second week in Texas, but we have a venue with far more course history to go off in TPC San Antonio, one that has hosted this event since 2011. 

Some other quick notes about the event:

• It’s a 144-man field with the regular cut line taking place after Friday (65 players and ties)
• Rory McIlroy leads the field in betting odds (see below) but is only playing here for the third time in his career (he did finish T2 in 2013)
• Eight top-20 players are in the field this week (OWGR) but of those names, only Hideki Matsuyama (Genesis) has a win on the PGA this year
• This event has seen first-time winners take down the title in four of the past six iterations 

Valero Texas Open Betting Odds

Despite not posting a top 10 on the PGA yet this season, Rory McIlroy remains the betting favorite and his odds are still under +1000, as of writing. Also in the top 10 this week are two former Valero winners in Jordan Spieth and Corey Conners. Conners played well at the PLAYERS and will be going for his third Valero title this season while Spieth has missed two cuts in a row and looks somewhat out of sorts. 

Two players in the top 10 this week on DraftKings (An and Noren) have yet to post wins on the PGA. That’s significant as this event has seen a lot of first-time PGA winners. 

2024 Valero Texas Open Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings)

Course Preview for the Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio (Oaks course) — San Antonio, Texas

• Par 72, 7,435 yards; Greens: Poa trivialis overseed
• Designer: Greg Norman
• Past winners: 
  • 2023: Corey Conners +2200
  • 2022: JJ Spaun +15000
  • 2021: Jordan Spieth +1200
  • 2020: Covid
  • 2019: Corey Conners +20000

Stat notes:

• Most of the recent winners have done the majority of their damage on approach: four of the past five winners have gained over 5.0 strokes on approach for the week
• Both Landry (2018) and Spieth (2021) ranked near the bottom of the field in driving accuracy
• Conners was near the bottom of the field in driving distance last year but 3rd in driving accuracy
• Conners was also the least effective putter of the winners from the past five seasons. He only gained 2.2 strokes putting in 2019 and 0.4 strokes in 2023. 

TPC San Antonio is a Greg Norman-designed course. For years, this venue and El Camaleon in Mexico were the only two Norman designs on the PGA, but with Mexico having a change in venue last season, this is the only one that remains. 

San Antonio is a windy par 72 that does challenge the players off the tee in spots but also provides plenty of space given its open layout. The Texas brush does skirt along some holes, but there is often a lot of room between the fairway and trees off many tee boxes, which makes missing the fairway somewhat of a small penalty this week. 

February 3, 2024; Pebble Beach, California, USA; Corey Conners hits his tee shot on the third hole during the third round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Off-the-tee stats are likely the least relevant this week, although most of the past winners have been positive in that area—and certainly, if you are too wild you’ll find a penalty area eventually. Approach stats are where winners have made most of their gains and that’s due to the tougher setup of the par 3s and two longer par 5s (8th and 18th), which can both play over 600 yards and often see players laying up on their second shot. 

While the venue does play long at 7,400 yards, the lack of penal rough and lack of penalties for poor drives has meant we have seen plenty of approach or putting specialists win this event. Names like Jordan Spieth, Jimmy Walker, and Corey Conners are all on the recent winners list and they are golfers we also often see get in contention at more claustrophobic venues like Harbour Town or Colonial. 

Whatever the case, the formula for success at San Antonio has been finding the players trending well in approach who fit this course well enough to go low over four rounds. 

Valero Texas Open Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright plays for me, I like playing these names in the placing department as well, and I’ve included placing options for each name if you are constructing a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work you can click here. 

Harris English Outright +4000 | top 10 +750 (Fanduel) 

English has been on the hunt for a win since he returned from injury (labrum) in June of 2022, and this week marks a solid opportunity to accomplish that goal for the now 34-year-old. He posted a T19 at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago, on a course in TPC Sawgrass that has generally given him fits over his career. Additionally, his ball-striking has taken a tick up to the point where he’s now gained over 2.0 strokes on approach in each of his last two Florida-based starts. 

English can be wild off the tee but he’s been quite good about keeping the ball in play in 2024, and the layout this week should help in some respects. TPC San Antonio does have some very penal areas (brush, thick trees, etc.) but many of the fairways have lots of room before you hit the heavy treeline. 

While he’s never really challenged at TPC San Antonio, this will be the sixth time in his career playing the layout, and when you look at the list of winners of this event he compares well. Both he and 2021 Valero winner Jordan Spieth have won at Kapulua and at TPC River Highlands, and English has also found success at El Camleon (the old host course of the Mayakoba Classic)—a venue where 2016 Valero winner Charley Hoffman has also won.  

With English still as big as 40-1 at some sportsbooks, he makes sense as a solid mid-range target to start cards with this week. 

Byeong Hun An Outright +4500 (bet365) or (each-way +4000 1/4 top five, bet365)

With first-time winners having been something of a theme at this event (there have been four first-time winners over the last six iterations), backing Byeong Hun An one more time seems appropriate. A runner on the PGA on five different occasions (and a three-time playoff loser), An has certainly shown that he’s not only good enough to win at this level but that he’s likely very overdue for win #1. 

January 6, 2024; Maui, Hawaii, USA; Byeong Hun An putts on the 18th hole during the third round of The Sentry golf tournament at Kapalua Golf - The Plantation Course. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

He started the season strong with top-10 finishes in his first two starts (playoff loss at the Sony) and posted a strong T8 in tough conditions at Bay Hill two starts ago, a good omen given the higher winds expected for this weekend. The South Korean is one of the best drivers of the ball in the game and has benefited from this somewhat driver-heavy layout in the past, as he’s posted top-10 finishes in both 2023 (T6) and 2019 (T7). It should be noted that those finishes also saw him gain over 4.0 strokes on approach (in each start) and he even set a career-best for strokes gained approach stats at this event back in 2019—gaining 7.6 strokes for the week. 

An’s putter isn’t his best club but he’s improved with it this season, and if he can flip to gaining strokes on TPC San Antonio’s greens, the potential for him to put up some low numbers around this course exists. With his number having fallen back in the +4000 range, he’s a player I like giving another go this week. 

Longshot Bets for the Valero Texas Open

Davis Riley Outright (+10000) | Top 10 (+1000) Fanduel or (each-way +75000 1/5 top eight, bet365)

Riley is a bit of a must-bet for me at these prices. He went off at this event at 28-1 last year and promptly imploded and withdrew after round one. However, his return this season is under far different circumstances. He’s no longer one of the favorites and is also coming off a terrific week in Houston where he finished T14 (his first top 20 since March 2023) and gained 7.6 strokes ball-striking for the event. 

Despite his issues at TPC San Antonio last season, Riley has already proven a good fit for this course, which provides a sometimes wild driver like himself ample room off the tee. He won the San Antonio Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 by getting to 16 under par for the week, and winning by two—an event that was played at the same venue the players will be on this week.

Riley’s number this week likely offers some solid long-term value just based off his talent alone. However, with him exuding some confidence now, it feels like an even better time to jump on board at these prices and see if the return to this familiar venue doesn’t spark something even bigger. 

Valero Texas Open Matchup Bets

Eric Cole -120 over Denny McCarthy (DraftKings) 

I like this matchup for Cole. Both men are putter-based players, but Cole has shown far better ball-striking upside of late, having gained 5.3 strokes on approach his last time out at the Valspar. McCarthy heads into this week slumping a bit as he has no top 20s on the season and has lost strokes on approach in four straight starts. Cole should likely be a bigger favorite. 

Collin Morikawa +105 over Alex Noren (DraftKings)

It’s been an ugly start to the season for Collin Morikawa, but posting him as an underdog to Alex Noren just feels wrong. Noren is playing solid golf, but Morikawa’s upside remains elite and out of all of the top players in this event, he needs a big week more than anyone to get some momentum going before major season really starts. He’s had a few weeks off to recharge and hopefully reset his putting stroke (there are rumours he’s using a mallett now) which should hopefully be enough for him to pay off this matchup bet at plus money.