Vikings vs Rams Predictions and Preview For Wild Card Weekend
In this breakdown of my Vikings vs Rams predictions for the Monday Night Football matchup on Super Wild Card Weekend, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.
I also …
- Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.).
- Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game.
- Note any players I like to outperform expectations.
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
Obligatory notes.
Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Sat., Jan. 11, 2:30 a.m. ET.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.
And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Betting Odds For Vikings vs Rams MNF
- Spread & Total: MIN -2.5 | O/U 47.5
- MIN ML: -139 (BetMGM)
- LAR ML: +125 (ESPN Bet)
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
A spread of -2.5 means the Vikings need to win by at least three points to cash. If the Rams win outright or lose by no more than two, they cash. A total of 47.5 means that 48 or more points cashes the over and 47 or fewer points cashes the under. A -139 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $139 to win $100; a +125 ML, $100 to win $125.
Even with the move to the neutral venue, my projections lean to the Rams at the current market.
Vikings vs Rams Implied Team Totals
- MIN Team Total: 25.25
- LAR Team Total: 22.75
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Projections for Rams vs. Vikings - Wild Card Weekend
Rams vs Vikings Betting Projections
- Spread: MIN -1.25
- Total: 47.5
- ML: +/-115.7
Vikings vs Rams Final Score Prediction
- Vikings: 24.4
- Rams: 23.1
Since this projected score is technically impossible, here's my "informed gut" projection: MIN 24, LAR 23.
Rams vs Vikings Projected Odds to Win
- Vikings: 53.6%
- Rams: 46.4%
Rams Player Projections for MNF
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21.6 | 32.3 | 233.3 | 1.51 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 0.03 | 14.5 |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 19.5 | 82.1 | 0.69 | 2 | 12.4 | 0.09 | 15.1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 3.2 | 13.2 | 0.06 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 0.01 | 2.3 |
| Cody Schrader | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Puka Nacua | 0.4 | 2.3 | 0.03 | 7 | 85 | 0.4 | 14.8 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.9 | 53.2 | 0.39 | 10.1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27.8 | 0.27 | 5.4 |
| Tutu Atwell | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.01 | 1.1 | 14.2 | 0.07 | 2.6 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 0.05 | 0.8 |
| Jordan Whittington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 0.02 | 0.8 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 23.4 | 0.14 | 4.4 |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 6.3 | 0.04 | 1.2 |
| Davis Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 0.03 | 0.6 |
| Hunter Long | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 0.02 | 0.5 |
Fantasy points are half-PPR scoring and based only on statistics shown. They do not include fumbles, two-point conversions, and miscellaneous TDs. Player order is by position and depth chart priority.
For our player-focused betting tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as our Player Prop Edge Table.
Vikings Player Projections for MNF
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22 | 32.7 | 253.6 | 1.77 | 0.79 | 3.8 | 12.9 | 0.13 | 17.7 |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13.6 | 61.1 | 0.36 | 2.7 | 19.8 | 0.11 | 12.3 |
| Cam Akers | 5.6 | 23.3 | 0.17 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 0.05 | 4.4 |
| Ty Chandler | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 6.3 | 87.2 | 0.53 | 15.1 |
| Jordan Addison | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.02 | 4.3 | 57.5 | 0.44 | 10.8 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 20.1 | 0.15 | 3.7 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 0.03 | 0.6 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 0.03 | 0.7 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.3 | 43.1 | 0.28 | 8.1 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 11.7 | 0.11 | 2.4 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.7 |
Top Fantasy Plays for Wild Card Rams vs. Vikings
Rams Fantasy Rankings For Wild Card Weekend
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Rams in their skill-position groups for the Wild Card Round.
- Matthew Stafford: QB10
- Kyren Williams: RB5
- Puka Nacua: WR2
- Cooper Kupp: WR16
- Tyler Higbee: TE12
Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor.
For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.
Williams and Nacua are matchup-independent studs, but the rest of the Rams offensive players could struggle if the Vikings defense converts blitzes into pressures.
Vikings Fantasy Rankings For Wild Card Weekend
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Vikings in their skill-position groups for the Wild Card Round.
- Sam Darnold: QB6
- Aaron Jones: RB8
- Justin Jefferson: WR1
- Jordan Addison: WR9
- T.J. Hockenson: TE2
The fantasy fivesome of Darnold, Jones, Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson might be the best skill-position quintet going this weekend.
Wild Card Rams vs. Vikings #RevengeGames
RB Cam Akers opened his career with the Rams in 2020 and served as the lead back for the 2021 team in its Super Bowl victory.
TE Johnny Mundt signed with the Rams as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2017—HC Sean McVay's first year with the team—and he (like Akers) played on the 2021 Super Bowl-winning team.
WR Brandon Powell signed with the Rams in the middle of the 2021 season, and by the end of the season, he was the team's primary kick and punt returner. In the Super Bowl, he had five returns for the Rams.
Imagine: Signing with an NFL team, living out one's dream of playing in the NFL and winning a Super Bowl, and then eventually leaving that team to play for another team while continuing to make millions of dollars while playing football.
Unreal.
Together, Akers, Mundt, and Powell must have an undying rage that burns with the fire of 3,000 suns.
Freedman's Favorite for Wild Card Rams vs. Vikings
In my final "Freedman's Favorites" of the 2024-25 season, I've highlighted players I like in the postseason CHOPionship contest at Guillotine Leagues.
One of those players is Rams WR Puka Nacua: It's conceivable for a healthy Rams team to make it to the NFC Championship—maybe even the Super Bowl—but they almost certainly won't be valued that way in this contest. Nacua should benefit from sitting out last week, and he has 67-838-3 receiving on 89 targets with 8-34-1 rushing in his eight full games since returning from injury.
Betting Trends for Wild Card Rams vs. Vikings
Rams: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 9-8, 0.8% ROI | Underdogs: 5-5, -4.9% ROI
- ML: 10-7, 14.5% ROI | Underdogs: 4-6, 3.5% ROI
- Under: 9-8, 1.8% ROI
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
The Rams have been minorly profitable this year, but less as underdogs.
Vikings: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 11-5-1, 29.5% ROI | Favorites: 7-4-1, 18.9% ROI
- ML: 14-3, 41.4% ROI | Favorites: 10-2, 25.9% ROI
- Under: 10-7, 12.9% ROI
The Vikings have been strong this year AST and ML, but less so as favorites.
Rams: Betting Trends
- HC Sean McVay: 75-64-4 ATS, 4.4% ROI | 87-56 ML, 1.4% ROI
- McVay Not at Home: 42-31-2 ATS, 11.6% ROI | 45-30 ML, 4.8% ROI
- McVay as Underdog: 27-21-2 ATS, 8.3% ROI | 18-32 ML, -9.4% ROI
- McVay vs. MIN HC Kevin O'Connell: 1-0 ATS, 87.0% ROI | 1-0 ML, 130.0% ROI
- McVay at State Farm (AZ): 7-1 ATS, 73.4% ROI | 7-1 ML, 42.8% ROI
While the Rams have lost their home-field advantage this week because of the fires in Los Angeles, it's notable that McVay has been better in the market away from home than at SoFi Stadium—and he's had his most success at State Farm, home to the division rival Cardinals.
As good as McVay is, his Rams have struggled to win as underdogs, but they've covered at an elevated rate when getting points.
Vikings: Betting Trends
- HC Kevin O'Connell: 25-23-4 ATS, -0.3% ROI | 34-18 ML, 16.6% ROI
- O'Connell Not at Home: 13-9-4 ATS, 10.8% ROI | 17-9 ML, 16.3% ROI
- O'Connell as Favorite: 16-14-3 ATS, 1.7% ROI | 26-7 ML, 21.3% ROI
O'Connell has always been better at winning than covering—but he's been his best ATS away from home.
Rams vs. Vikings Injury Report and External Factors
I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.
Rams: Notable Injuries
- RT Rob Havenstein (shoulder): Missed Week 17 and failed to practice at all before sitting out Week 18, but his back-to-back limited practices to open this week are encouraging.
- TE Hunter Long (knee): Exited last week with an injury but is practicing fully now.
The Rams look to have the entirety of their active roster healthy after treating Week 18 like a glorified bye.
Vikings: Notable Injuries
- EDGE Patrick Jones (knee): Exited Week 17 early and is yet to practice or play since.
The Vikings are almost as healthy as the Rams.
Rams-Vikings External Factors
- Venue Change: The Rams have a nearly nonexistent home-field advantage, so the shift to the neutral State Farm isn't a devastating blow, especially since the stadium is relatively close and the Rams play there annually in division.
- Travel: The Rams last played on the road in Week 16, whereas this is the third road game in four weeks for the Vikings.
- Rest: The Rams rested their key players in Week 18 while the Vikings played (and lost) a high-stakes game on Sunday Night Football against the division-rival Lions.
Rams-Vikings Anytime TD Player Prop
- Kyren Williams Anytime TD: -130 (DraftKings)
- Proj: 0.78 TDs | -197.1 to Score
No. 2 RB Blake Corum (forearm) is out, and Williams should be fresh after resting last week. He should have a full workload.
Despite missing a game, Williams finished the season No. 3 with 20 goal-line carries, which he leveraged into an NFL-high 12 TDs rushing inside the five-yard line. When the Rams get near the end zone, Williams is likely to get opportunities to score.
Since last year, Williams has 31 TDs in 29 games (including playoffs).
He has scored in all but four games this year.
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
- Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)
