Way-Too-Early 2025 NFL Mock Draft: Is Shedeur Sanders the No. 1 Pick?
The 2024 NFL draft is so last week. Literally. So it's time to release my way-too-early first mock for 2025.
Over the past six years (since I started submitting mocks in competitions) I’m the No. 2 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest, and I'm a lifetime 484-424 (+102.6 units) betting on the draft.
In 2024 I was a terrible 38-49 (-10.4 units) thanks largely to a heavy fade of QB Michael Penix, but I was at least the No. 5 mocker on the year, so I'm just gonna close my eyes and hope my poor betting performance was due to variance and strategic stupidity. Anyways …
Let's get to the way-too-early mock.
2025 Mock Draft Methodology
I've determined draft order by consulting the betting market (specifically team odds to win the Super Bowl and team win totals at DraftKings). I'm sure there's a more sophisticated method, but this one is good enough.
With this mock, I'm trying to accomplish a few things.
- Set up my spreadsheets and models for the 2025 draft. Done. (For now.)
- Work through my early thoughts on potential team needs.
- Start to establish hierarchies within position groups.
- Begin to identify players with a chance of going in Round 1.
I will be enormously wrong on almost everything in this mock. If I manage to get even one team-player pairing right, I'll be lucky.
Essentially, this mock is an exercise in exercise. It's not so much a predictive endeavor. Because of that, I don't provide many notes. It's basically just a list of teams and players with some notes at the end.
2025 NFL Mock Draft
Here's the way-too-early mock.
| Pick | Team | Player | School | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | James Pearce | Tennessee | EDGE |
| 2 | NE | Will Campbell | LSU | OT |
| 3 | TEN | Shedeur Sanders | Colorado | QB |
| 4 | DEN | Travis Hunter | Colorado | WR |
| 5 | NYG | Carson Beck | Georgia | QB |
| 6 | WAS | Kelvin Banks | Texas | OT |
| 7 | ARI | Will Johnson | Michigan | CB |
| 8 | LV | Quinn Ewers | Texas | QB |
| 9 | MIN | Benjamin Morrison | Notre Dame | CB |
| 10 | NO | Cameron Ward | Miami | QB |
| 11 | SEA | Harold Perkins | LSU | EDGE |
| 12 | TB | Denzel Burke | Ohio State | CB |
| 13 | IND | Malaki Starks | Georgia | S |
| 14 | PIT | Mason Graham | Michigan | DT |
| 15 | JAX | Tacario Davis | Arizona | CB |
| 16 | CLE | Emery Jones | LSU | OT |
| 17 | LAR | Luther Burden | Missouri | WR |
| 18 | CHI | Mykel Williams | Georgia | EDGE |
| 19 | LAC | Tetairoa McMillan | Arizona | WR |
| 20 | ATL | J.T. Tuimoloau | Ohio State | EDGE |
| 21 | MIA | Walter Nolen | Mississippi | DT |
| 22 | NYJ | Emeka Egbuka | Ohio State | WR |
| 23 | GB | Abdul Carter | Penn State | EDGE |
| 24 | PHI | Jonah Savaiinaea | Arizona | OT |
| 25 | DAL | Quinshon Judkins | Ohio State | RB |
| 26 | HOU | Tyler Booker | Alabama | G |
| 27 | CIN | Patrick Payton | Florida State | EDGE |
| 28 | BUF | Princely Umanmielen | Mississippi | EDGE |
| 29 | DET | Jack Sawyer | Ohio State | EDGE |
| 30 | BAL | Evan Stewart | Oregon | WR |
| 31 | SF | Deone Walker | Kentucky | DT |
| 32 | KC | Tyleik Williams | Ohio State | DT |
Borderline Prospects
These are the players I currently view as residing on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.
- QBs Jalen Milroe (Alabama) & Drew Allar (Penn State)
- RB Ollie Gordon (Oklahoma State)
- WR Isaiah Bond (Texas)
- TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)
- OTs Earnest Greene (Georgia) & Josh Conerly (Oregon)
- EDGEs Nic Scourton (Texas A&M), Landon Jackson (Arkansas), Dani Dennis-Sutton (Penn State) & Ashton Gillotte (Louisville)
- DTs Kenneth Grant (Michigan), Shemar Turner (Texas A&M) & Dontay Corleone (Cincinnati)
- CB Jabbar Muhammad (Oregon)
Quarterbacks
Entering the 2024 draft season, all I heard about the 2025 QB class was how weak it is. Maybe.
But I -- who detrimentally hates mocking QBs in Round 1 -- have already identified four guys with a shot of going top-10 and two other prospects who could push themselves into the top 32.
It almost certainly won't happen … but there's a non-zero chance we could have six QBs go in Round 1 again next year.
Right now, QB Shedeur Sanders is a +300 favorite to be the No. 1 pick. I haven't slotted him there, primarily because I don't imagine the Panthers will be ready to abandon QB Bryce Young next offseason, but I do have Sanders going off the board at No. 3 to the Titans as the No. 1 QB in the class.
Running Backs
I have just one RB going in Round 1: Quinshon Judkins.
Naturally, he goes to the Cowboys, who might be desperate for a top-tier prospect after watching Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, and Deuce Vaughn committee the backfield to death throughout the 2024 season.
Wide Receivers
At a glance, the 2025 class doesn't seem nearly at deep as WR as the 2024 class was.
I have five WRs in Round 1, but only one of them -- two-way phenom Travis Hunter -- feels like a locked-in top-32 player right now.
Tight Ends
There's no Brock Bowers in the 2025 class. (And, sadly, maybe there never was one in the 2024 class either.)
Non-Skill Positions
Offensive Linemen
The 2024 class was loaded at OL in Round 1. For 2025, I have five going in the top 32 … but I can see it actually being four.
This does not seem like a deep class.
Defensive Linemen
Oh, baby. Here be dragons.
I have 12 DLs in Round 1: Eight EDGEs and four DTs. And I almost had nine EDGEs.
This class (to my untrained non-scout eye) looks wonderfully robust in the defensive trench.
Ying and yang. In 2024, we saw a record eight OTs go in Round 1. In 2025, we could see an all-time number of DLs in the top 32.
Linebackers
We had no LBs go in Round 1 this year, and I'm projecting the same next year.
Mothers, don't let your little boys grow up to play LB.
Secondary
Four CBs and one S, ho-hum.
Kickers
Just messing with you.
