NFL Week 1 Best Bets. Spreads, Totals, Moneylines, and Props to Bet.

Welcome to the week 1 best bets article. 

Here, we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections, and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker. Others will simply be lines I deem worthing of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below. 

I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off the favorites in each category even if they don’t get a write up. 

If you want more, be sure to check out Matthew Freedman’s best bets article and the Fantasy Life bet tracker afterwards. 

But for now, you’re stuck with me… 

As Humpty Dumpty once said, let’s get cracking.

Spread: New York Giants +3 vs Dallas Cowboys (-105, BetMGM)

New York ranked ninth in EPA per play (0.034) on offense last season, which placed them one spot above Dallas. The addition of Darren Waller—who has averaged over 12.0 yards per reception the last two seasons—and Jalin Hyatt helps diversify them on that side of the ball even more. 

The Cowboys are supremely talented on defense, ranking out second in EPA per play allowed (-.087) in 2022, but the Giants' defensive unit figures to show improvement this season.

New York added LB Bobby Okereke, a big upgrade in the middle, and may have hit it out of the park in the secondary by drafting Deonte Banks and sixth-round pick Tre Hawkins—who played himself into a starting position in training camp. 

Home underdogs are 11-6 ATS over the last two seasons in week 1, and the Cowboys under Mike McCarthy have started slower than a season of True Detective, going 0-3 straight up in week 1 since he joined Dallas. 

Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 vs San Francisco 49ers (-110, DraftKings)

This will undoubtedly be a close game, but taking the points at home for Pittsburgh is where the team has landed on this one.

Jan 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) rushes against Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride (85) during the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The news flow has really been focusing on Nick Bosa’s return after he signed a gigantic contract on Wednesday, but the 49ers have to face a healthy TJ Watt and enter 2023 down two key pieces to their O-Line. 

Week 1 home underdogs have delivered the last couple of seasons, going a collective 11-6 against the spread in Week 1 since 2021, and Mike Tomlin as a home underdog isn’t something you generally want to trifle with. 

The Steelers as a whole have gone 14-4-3 ATS under Tomlin when they’ve gone off as the non-favorite at home in the regular season. 

Money Line/Survivor: Seattle Seahawks -200 (Seahawks -4.0) (-112, FanDuel)

I think Seattle is a great survivor play, and if you’re looking for a parlay leg, the -250 money line (71.4% probability) on Seattle also looks like decent value. 

But, if we’re being brutally honest, the Seahawks should win this game by a landslide. Yes, it’s a divisional matchup, and yes, the Rams have a seasoned head coach and quarterback to rely on, but after that the cupboard is bare. They produced -0.08 EPA per play last season (3rd worst in the league) and will be relying on a combination of Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, and Ben Skowronek to replicate Cooper Kupp in week 1.

As Austin Powers once said, “Who are these people!”

The Seahawks' defense has also improved vastly over the offseason. Bobby Wagner is back, and the addition of fifth overall pick Devon Witherspoon means Seattle now has another elite corner to play alongside Tariq Woolen. 

While there is now a little bit of pressure on Seattle to start the year strong, they aren’t paper champions and have added depth on defense, and they continue to be led by a veteran head coach who is 5-0 straight up and 3-2 ATS in week 1 at home. A blowout here would not be shocking.

Money Line/Survivor: Atlanta Falcons (-185, BetMGM)

(Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs Carolina Panthers)

A lot of what I said about Seattle/L.A. can be applied to this one. Yes, we have a divisional underdog on the road in week 1, and the trends that those teams cover at are scary. At the same time, we have a coach in Frank Reich who avoids week 1 wins like the plague. 

Over his career, Reich-led teams are 0-4-1 SU and ATS in week 1 games.

Nov 10, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) catches a touchdown as Carolina Panthers cornerback Donte Jackson (26) defends in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The trepidation about going with Atlanta should wear off fast when we see what the Panthers may be rolling out on offense in week 1. DJ Chark and Adam Thielen both missed practice Thursday and are trending toward sitting out. The O-Line looked terrible in preseason, and Brian Burns—arguably their best player on either side of the ball—was just involved in a heated holdout/dispute with the team. 

Football almost seems to be an afterthought in Carolina at the moment, and that’s likely going to translate to week 1 when they face a deeper Falcons team than we saw in 2022. 

Underdog Money Line: Las Vegas Raiders (+150, BetMGM) (Raiders +3.0) 

On the complete opposite end of the spectrum to the Seahawks/Rams scenario is the divisional matchup between the Raiders and Broncos. Denver remains a team thin at numerous positions and who has once again been heavily pumped in the media this offseason—this time due to a boisterous head coach who believes he can fix an aging quarterback. 

The Raiders have their flaws, but the move to Jimmy Garoppolo—who worked with Josh McDaniels in New England—is interesting for betting. Garoppolo is 15-7 straight-up as an underdog and no slouch from an analytics perspective, as he ranks third in EPA per play over the last two years.

The assumption is that Denver’s defense is the best unit in this game, but Josh Jacobs ran for 253 yards on 52 carries in two games against them last season, both Raider wins. The line here is giving Denver a little too much credit as any Raider lead would be tough for them to overcome, given Wilson’s struggles and the fact that their best WR is banged up and questionable to play. 

You can certainly play the spread at +3.0 or bigger, but if the Raiders win straight up, don’t be overly shocked. 

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Total:  Vikings vs. Buccaneers over 45.5 points (-110, BetMGM)

This game has pretty much everything we want in an over bet. It’s in a dome and has two defenses with major holes, multiple game-breaking receivers, and the Vikings.

Baker Mayfield may not instill you with confidence, but he’s coming off a fantastic preseason and has been praised by new OC Dave Canales, who helped revitalize Geno Smith last season. The Buccaneers may not play at the same light-speed pace they did with Tom Brady, but they showcased up-tempo play in the preseason and were reportedly using plenty of no-back sets in camp. 

Dec 11, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) catches a pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

New Vikings DC Brian Flores will blitz a ton, but his cornerback room is thinner than the waiver wire in your 18-team league and the Buccaneers have a great pass-catching back in Rachaad White, plus one of the league's best slot receivers in Chris Godwin, to counteract said pressure.

Tampa may even come out with a pass-heavy game plan early on, or simply get pushed there because the Vikings' offense lights up their aging defense with a few big plays of their own. 

Overall, the Vikings should once again be a great team to target the over in 2023. They have the same offensive-minded head coach, went 8-1 to the over as home favorites, and have a 23-12 overall record toward the over since 2021. 

Prop: Diontae Johnson over 52.5 receiving yards (-120, BetMGM)

Despite his TD-less 2022, Johnson remains an elite route runner who is fantastic at getting himself open—exemplified best by his elite team target share from preseason.

He’s also the perfect kind of player to use over and over again on screens and slants to counteract pressure from a vaunted 49ers pass rush.

While we’ve seen Kenny Pickett’s passing total rise significantly since player props have dropped, Johnson’s has barely budged since open. He’s a good over target and a player we have projected for over 55.0 yards in week 1. 

Prop: Lamar Jackson under 51.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)

All we’ve heard about this offseason is how high-powered this Ravens passing game will be under new OC Todd Monken. That may or may not be true, but one thing I do expect the Ravens to do early on in the season is try to make fetch work. Monken wants to push the ball downfield more, and Jackson ultimately wants to be mentioned alongside the best passers in the league. 

That should lead to a few less designed runs and a few more situations where Jackson opts to sit back and observe the field for an extra second before taking off to run. We also have a team in Houston with a defensive guru as its head coach in Demeco Ryans and an interior lineman in Will Anderson Jr. who should make it harder for Jackson to scramble. 

Ultimately, we have Jackson’s under as a highly rated play in our week 1 projections and I’d tend to agree. It’s a big number for any QB rushing prop and one that could hit for us in multiple ways given the circumstances. 

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