Welcome to the first edition of the 2024 Bad Beats roundup, a weekly column where Matt LaMarca and I go through and dissect the worst betting beats from around the NFL. 

First off, I just want to say, this is a safe space. The Betting Life team loads a ton of bets in our FREE Bet Tracker every week and, trust us, we don’t just do it for show. As much as we espouse the longterm profitability of our FantasyLife+ tools and projections, we, like anyone, also get caught up in the moment when things go against us (this is a fancy way of saying we like to whine like toddlers when we lose… especially on the bets we should have won!). 

I’m not going to pretend like I saw every play last week but there were a couple of pretty big leads blown in Week 1 that surely got some bettors hot under the collar. (Not me, though. I handled the Titans meltdown well. Please don’t put in the newspaper that I got mad.) 

If you want a more specific breakdown of some of the biggest missed fantasy opportunities, also make sure to read Ian Hartitz’s “Sheesh Report,” a weekly feature of heartbreaking videos and stats, like this missed TD from Amari Cooper. 

Week 1 Bad Beats 

Geoff’s Bad Beat: (Don’t) Remember the Titans

If you had followed my early week bet in Free NFL Bet Tracker, you likely would have had a piece of the Titans at +4.5 in this game (they closed at 4.0 or 3.5). And, like me, you were likely feeling very good when they went into halftime with a 17-3 lead. 

I don’t want to say I was counting my money at that point, but sweating the cover in this game was not on my list of things to do as the second half started for the early slate. 

Of course, as luck would have (and as always happens in these situations), insanity quickly ensued. 

A blocked punt early in the third quarter ended up as a Chicago score (17-10). The Bears then got the ball right back and kicked a FG (17-13). The Bears then got the ball right back again off a Will Levis fumble and kicked another FG (17-16). 

The Titans got the ball back and, to their credit, finally made a first down. Then, on the next set of downs,  Will Levis, in his attempt to avoid a sack on third down, did this. 

The Bears converted a two-point conversion and the Bears defense did the rest. 

This probably won't rate super high on my all-time list of bad beats (it wasn’t a last-play pick-six or fumble return off a kickoff sort of deal) but it’s one I’ll remember. If you had told me before the game that the Titans would hold Caleb Williams to just 93 yards passing — and 3.2 yards per attempt — in this game AND that the Titans would go into halftime with a 17-3 lead, I would have taken out second, third and fourth mortgages on my house and put it all on Tennessee. 

Luckily for me, time travel has not been invented yet. However, when it finally is I will be going back and telling 2024 preseason Geoff not to Remember the Titans. 

LaMarca’s Bad Beat #1: The Bengals Play Heartbreaker

Who doesn’t love a good Survivor pool? It seems so easy on the surface — just pick one team to win each week. You can’t use that team again, but with every team available to you in Week 1, how hard could it be?

Turns out, it’s pretty dang hard.

The Bengals were the clear No. 1 choice for Survivor players in Week 1. They were favored by more than a touchdown against the Patriots, who had a preseason win total of just 4.5. There was no way they could lose this game, right?

You know how things went from there. The Patriots led the Bengals for nearly the entire game, with Cincinnati never really threatening to take the lead. The Bengals weren’t at full strength — Tee Higgins was out, Ja’Marr Chase was “limited” to 84% of the snaps — but this loss still felt inexcusable.

As a result, Survivor pools look markedly different heading into Week 2. The Bengals took out more than a third of the field in the big Circa Survivor pool:

(Also, shoutout to the 45 people who just didn’t even bother to make a pick in Week 1. Bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off.)

With that many people getting the boot in Week 1, the door is now wide open for those who faded the chalk. To those who didn’t, you have my sincerest apologies. Hopefully, there’s a nice second-chance Survivor pool out there somewhere.

Geoff’s Bad Beat #2: Tank Dell Air Yards for Dinner

Tank Dell was one of the first props I bet this week. His line opened up at 47.5 receiving yards, which was ridiculously low considering he often went off 10-15 yards higher in 2023. He was playing the Colts in a dome in a game that had a 3.0-point spread and 48.5 total. Our projections had him somewhere in the mid 50’s. 

I’m not gonna lie, I thought this one was a slam dunk and essentially in the bag as soon as the whistle blew. Sixty minutes later and this is the line we got:

Tank Dell: 3 receptions, 40 yards (7 targets). 

If you had told me Tank Dell had seven targets pre-game I would have put my odds of hitting this over 47.5 yards at about 75-80% (conservatively). But wait, there’s more. Dell not only saw seven targets but he also accumulated 105 air yards and had an 87% route participation. So not only was he on the field almost every time CJ Stroud dropped back to pass, but he was also getting DEEP targets. 

Unfortunately, we have to toss this one up to a little Week 1 rust between Stroud and Dell. There will be bigger weeks soon and we’ll just have to pray this line stays low enough to take the over again in Week 2 (or beyond). 

LaMarca’s Bad Beat #2: The Jags Fumble The Bag

Depending on what number you got with the Jags, this might not have even been a “bad beat.” They still managed to cover the spread for those who had +3.5, while those who had +3.0 still managed a push.

That said, there is no reason they shouldn’t have won this game outright.

The Jaguars were up 17-7 and driving for another score. Travis Etienne was on the brink of punching the ball into the end zone to give the team a 17-point lead, but Jevon Holland made a last-second punch-out to force a fumble. Instead of going up 24-7, the Jaguars surrendered the ball back to the Dolphins.

Still, a 10-point lead with less than 2:30 to go in the third quarter shouldn’t have been a huge issue. Of course, 10 points can turn to three real quick with Tyreek Hill on the other side of the field. Hill scored an 80-yard touchdown just one play after the fumble, and all of a sudden the Dolphins were down only a field goal.

Miami would go on to kick a game-tying field goal deep into the fourth quarter, and they would ultimately secure a three-point win in overtime.

It’s ultimately a brutal beat for anyone who had the Jaguars on the moneyline and potentially for Etienne’s fantasy owners as well. That fumble may have put him in the doghouse, and it’s worth noting that Tank Bigsby finished with the same number of carries. He was far more productive, so Etienne’s hold on the starting job could be more tenuous than initially thought.

Geoff Bonus Bad Beat: Jaleel’s Phantom Catch 

This one is out of my personal bag of beats (or beets for you Dwight Schrute fans). 

I really liked the over on receptions in Week 1 for Jaleel McLaughlin, who is set as the passing down back for the Broncos this season and should inherit all 50 to 60 of Samaje Perine’s targets from last year. 

I included him as the main target in my Week 1 milestone bets on Twitter/X, a feature I’ll be tweeting out every week, and laddered him through 4, 5, and 6 receptions. 

Well, McLaughlin did hit the first two portions of the ladder, getting to five catches for a whopping 1.0 yards against the stifling Seattle defense. So, I know what you’re probably asking right now; you cashed a +425 bet and a +1000 bet, what’s the beat (you braggart)?

As you can see from my bet I also had McLaughlin for 6+ catches at +1700. The second-year back actually made a sixth catch, but it was overturned later in the game as a backward pass (eg not a catch); but not before I saw the stat recorded as a catch and had listed the bet down as a guaranteed win in my mind. 

Thanks, stat correctors. 

I’m not as unhappy with this one (now) as I was at the time, but it does still sting. As anyone who has gone through a similar experience knows — there is no worse feeling in the world than thinking you have a bet won and then having it taken away from you, after the fact. 

Hopefully, that was the only taste of injustice I have to swallow for 2024 because it’s not a feeling I want to relive every week.