Week 10 Big Ten Monster Showdown: Ohio State-Penn State
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
We’re nearing the home stretch of the college football season. Most teams have played either seven or eight games, so we’re starting to get a bit of clarity about which teams will make the expanded 12-team playoff.
The Athletic currently sees the field with four Big Ten teams (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana), the SEC with three (Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee), and the ACC with two (Miami and Clemson). The other three spots are projected for the Big 12 champ (currently Kansas State), the best Group of Five school (Boise State), and Notre Dame.
Of course, these are just projections. We still have lots of football left to be played, starting with a monster Big Ten showdown on Saturday night.
Ohio State will travel to Penn State in a battle between top-4 squads. It’s not exactly a must-win—Penn State can definitely get in with one loss, while Ohio State might still get in with two—but it’s a game that both teams desperately want.
Ohio State has already lost a marquee game this season against Oregon. The Buckeyes have underperformed for most of the Ryan Day era, so they could certainly use a win to re-establish themselves as a top-flight program. They also still have a matchup vs. Indiana on the schedule, so they need to win at least one of those two games to secure a playoff spot.
Penn State has pretty much breezed through its schedule, only hitting a minor speed bump against USC. However, the season always comes down to a marquee matchup against Ohio State or Michigan. Under James Franklin, the Nittany Lions have almost always disappointed in these matchups, and they’ve lost seven straight times to Ohio State. Penn State has been ranked in the top 10 for four of those matchups, so it’s put up or shut up time in Happy Valley.
Let’s dive into Ohio State-Penn State and two other must-see matchups for CFB Week 10.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The best college games for your viewing pleasure on Saturday
- Thor Nystrom’s best bets for CFB Week 10
- Watercooler: Malachi Corley drops the ball for bettors
The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 10
by Matt LaMarca
Texas A&M (-3.5) at South Carolina—7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Raise your hand if you had Texas A&M in first place in the hyper-competitive SEC this season. The Aggies are currently the only undefeated team in the conference, with their only loss coming in Week 1 against Notre Dame. Notre Dame seems pretty comfortably in the playoffs at the moment, so it’s certainly a defensible loss.
That puts the Aggies in the driver’s seat for the playoffs, but they still have a lot of work left to do. They still have a massive rivalry game vs. Texas to end the season and a potential SEC championship showdown. Those matchups are why the Aggies are still available at +100 to make the playoffs.
That said, if they’re looking past the Gamecocks this week, South Carolina could take advantage. South Carolina has a top-10 defense nationally, and it has given LSU and Alabama all they could handle.
Pittsburgh at SMU (-7.5)—8 p.m. ET on ACC Network
At one point do we start taking Pittsburgh seriously? They’re undefeated in a major conference, yet they’ve gotten almost zero attention.
That will change if the Panthers are able to pull off a win against SMU. This is easily their toughest test of the season so far, facing an SMU squad with a 7-1 record and top-20 defense. SMU is a pretty sizable home favorite, so the Panthers ae going to have their work cut out for them.
The good news is that quarterback Eli Holstein seems good to go after exiting last week’s win over Syracuse. Holstein has racked up 17 touchdown passes to just 5 interceptions, and he’s added another 3 scores on the ground.
Pittsburgh still has a matchup vs. Clemson on the schedule for later this season, so it controls its own destiny. Keep winning, and the Panthers are likely in. Sometimes, that’s all you can ask for.
Ohio State (-3.0) at Penn State—Noon ET on Fox
The demons for Penn State are real. Head coach James Franklin is 1-9 in his career against Ohio State. He’s merely 5-11 ATS against top-5 opponents, and he’s 18-23 ATS against ranked opponents overall. The Nittany Lions can probably survive a loss in the literal sense, but I’m not sure if they can mentally. That’s how much this matchup means to them.
This is the first time they’ve been ranked higher than Ohio State in a head-to-head matchup since 2017. They’re at home. The GameDay crew will be in attendance, and the whole world will be watching. The pressure is undoubtedly on.
Fortunately, Penn State will have its starting quarterback. Drew Allar is reportedly expected to start after sitting out the second half of last week’s game vs. Wisconsin.
Will that be enough to push the Nittany Lions over the top? We’ve had a host of matchups between top-5 opponents this season, but I’m not sure any of them have needed a win more than Penn State.
What About The Rest of the Slate?
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
☕️ Rise and grind. The Week 10 College Football Pregame Show kicks off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
💰 For the wins. Freedman’s best bets for NFL Week 9.
🏈 The Bellofatto Build is back. This week’s theme? Only players with odd-numbered jerseys.
🥊 It’s Moreno vs. Albazi and more Best Bets For UFC Fight Night.
👽 Victor Wembanyama—still a freak of nature. He became just the third player in NBA history with multiple 5×5s, and he did it in just 76 career games.
❌ You don’t score until you score. Malachi Corley’s early drop leaves a handful of bettors in the cold.
Best Bets for College Football Week 10
by Thor Nystrom
Below is one of my best bets for this weekend in College Football Week 10, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the College Football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately—as they happen—into our college football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections.
Onto the picks!
Michigan vs. Oregon
Kalel Mullings’ rushing prop can be had at a steep discount this week for a few reasons:
1) He had only 13 carries for 18 yards last week against Michigan State.
2) Misconceptions about Oregon’s defense.
3) Michigan is a 14.5-point underdog, bringing about game script concerns.
Michigan State’s run defense is easily the strength of the entire team. The game before, Sparty upset Iowa by becoming only the second team to hold RB Kaleb Johnson under 100 yards rushing.
In an attempt to augment this, the Wolverines used running QB2 Alex Orji in sub-packages more often to steal ground yards. Orji was Michigan’s leading rusher in that game.
This time around, the neutral-script game plan will be more straightforward: Go right at Oregon’s weakness, its run defense. The Ducks rank No. 97 in EPA/rush defensively. Oregon is also shoddy with tackling, ranking No. 78 in tackle success rate.
Defending the pass is where Oregon is elite (No. 12 EPA/dropback), incentivizing Michigan even more extremely to stay on the ground in a neutral game script. Mullings averaged 6.5 YPC in three games against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time, and 5.6 YPC over the entire season.
Even if Michigan gets blown out and the game script eliminates the run in the fourth quarter, Mullings should have a strong shot to breach this number. If he gets 10 carries, the data on both sides suggests he’s going over. Mullings has 10+ carries in six straight games.
Speaking of projected game script and Oregon’s elite pass-defense, we like the prop on Michigan QB Davis Warren to throw an interception. Jack Tuttle has medically retired, and Orji has settled in as the sub-package runner he is meant to be. That means it’s Warren’s show going forward.
Warren has thrown an incredible 7 interceptions in only 96 attempts going back to last year—one every 13.7 attempts. With Michigan underdogs by 14.5 points, Warren is likely going to have to throw 25+ times into the teeth of a very good pass defense. His body of work suggests an interception or two are coming.
Thor’s bets: UM RB Mullings Over 60.5 Rushing Yards | UM QB Warren Over 0.5 Interceptions
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