One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.

So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.

With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 10 and look for some opportunities to find value.

Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens

  • Current Line: -115; FanDuel
  • Bet To: +6.0 (-110)

This isn’t a traditional bet that you need to lock in early. The Bengals are currently 6.5-point underdogs, so if anything, it’d typically make sense to wait and see if it got to 7.0.

That said, this number is pretty cleanly at 6.0 across the rest of the industry. With that in mind, I don’t think we’ll see any sevens, and I’m grabbing the lone remaining 6.5.

The Bengals were able to take care of business in Week 9, dismantling the Raiders by 17 points. Their offense continued to thrive, scoring 42 points in a strong matchup, while the defense allowed just 217 total yards. That was their best mark of the season by a comfortable margin. The Bengals don’t get a ton of respect for beating the Raiders, but it was nice to see their defense could actually stop someone.

The big reason to like Cincinnati this week is the point spread. Getting Joe Burrow as an underdog has historically been elite for bettors. Burrow is 13-3 ATS as an underdog of more than a field goal (including playoffs), and he’s a near-perfect 11-2 when getting at least 4.5.

The Bengals have already played the Ravens once this season, and it was a game that went right down to the wire. The Ravens ultimately prevailed in overtime, and if not for a late Burrow interception, the Bengals likely would’ve won.

The Ravens are an elite offensive team, but their defense has had problems all season. Burrow had nearly 400 yards and 5 touchdowns in their first matchup, and he should hopefully have Tee Higgins back in the lineup on Thursday.

These are the types of spots where Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and their teammates tend to perform their best. They may not be able to beat the Ravens outright, but I’m expecting another close contest.

New England Patriots (+7.0) at Chicago Bears

  • Current Line: -110; DraftKings
  • Bet To: +7.0 (-115)

Is it time to panic with the Bears? I think so. Losing to the Commanders in Week 8 was defensible. They should’ve won that contest, and even if not for Jayden Daniels’ last-minute heave, there’s still no shame in losing to Washington. They’re legit.

But what they did in Week 9 was incredibly concerning. They were blown out by a Cardinals squad that simply does not have the same level of talent. That game was expected to be close, but the Bears managed just 241 yards of total offense.

It was their second straight subpar offensive showing against exploitable defenses. The Commanders were 22nd in EPA per play defensively entering Week 9, while the Cardinals were 29th going into this week’s matchup. They had surrendered at least 373 yards in each of their three previous games, so the Bears’ dismal output is eye-opening.

Perhaps they can turn things around moving forward, and the Patriots are another soft matchup. But until Caleb Williams shows more consistency, I can’t trust him laying a full touchdown against anyone.

Meanwhile, the Patriots continue to fight with Drake Maye under center. They weren't able to win outright in overtime vs. the Titans, but they did manage to cover the spread.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.0) at New Orleans Saints

  • Current Line: -110; FanDuel
  • Play To: -3.0 (-120)

The Saints got Derek Carr back in the lineup this week, which represented a huge increase over Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. That said, don’t mistake “upgrade” for anything else. Carr is still a below-average NFL quarterback, and the fact that he’s an upgrade is simply due to his backup duo being poor.

Carr is going to have to make the most out of almost nothing this week vs. the Falcons. The Saints were already without one starting receiver in Rashid Shaheed (IR out for season), and they will almost certainly be without Chris Olave in Week 10. Olave had to be carted off the field, and while it sounds like he avoided serious injury, I’d be shocked if he cleared the concussion protocol that quickly.

Without Olave, the Saints have almost nothing left at the receiver position. Their top options are guys like Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson, and Bub Means, and they’re not scaring anyone.

The Saints couldn’t even survive against the Panthers without Olave in Week 9. Even though they did outgain the Panthers by a wide margin, the Saints still came away with a bitter one-point loss.

If Bryce Young can beat the Saints, why can’t the Falcons? Atlanta hasn’t exactly been winning pretty this season, but it has at least been winning. The Falcons moved to 6-3 with a win over the Cowboys this Sunday, and their offense continues to move the ball efficiently. After a slow start to the year, Kirk Cousins has now thrown for 13 touchdowns and three interceptions over his past five games.

This line is already a fully juiced -3.0 at some locations, and it’s Falcons -3.5 at others. I’m going to lock in Atlanta while there’s still a reasonably priced -3.0 available.