After a few ugly primetime games in a row, we finally get ourselves a rather appealing matchup for Monday Night Football in Week 10 – which sounds strange to say as the Broncos are involved. But these (possibly) aren’t your Week 3 Broncos. 

Denver may have started the season as the laughing stock of the league (blown wins vs. Raiders and Commanders, lost by 50 to Dolphins), but since Week 6, they are 2-1 and have held the Chiefs under 20 points twice. While they were historically bad on defense to start the year, they have allowed just 4.1 yards per rush over their last three games and 6.3 yards per pass attempt.

However, this week will be the real litmus test. Buffalo has had their issues defensively since losing a couple of their stars on that side of the ball, but they are still second in offensive DVOA and have one of the league's most explosive QB/WR duos in Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. So is this the spot Buffalo breaks out and reasserts themselves as an AFC elite, or do the Broncos make a stand and legitimize themselves as a potential playoff candidate?

Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Broncos-Bills.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

  • Spread: Broncos +7.0 (-110, BetMGM)
  • Total: 47.5
  • Moneylines: Broncos +260 / Bills -310

From an injury perspective, it’s advantage Broncos.

LB Baron Browning (wrist) went full in practice this week and has played great for Denver, while OG Ben Powers is also a full go and has been a big part of the reason Denver has been running the ball so well of late. 

Conversely, the Bills simply cannot keep their defensive players off the injury report. Safety Micah Hyde (stinger) is out for this game, as is corner Christian Benford (hamstring). They also have starting LB Terrel Bernard (concussion) listed as questionable. That is horrendous news for a team already down their best corner (Tre’Davious White) and LB (Matt Milano). 

Bills

Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano (58) reacts after his interception with linebacker Terrel Bernard (43) during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The secondary issues will still sting, and it could be a real issue if Bernard doesn’t get cleared. Denver has quietly turned into one of the most dominating rushing teams in the league and enter this game second in yards per rush. Javonte Williams (15 and 27 carries in his last two games) has seen his workload ramped up the last two weeks and bulldozed his way to 98 scrimmage yards against the Chiefs two weeks ago. He and the other Broncos runners have a Green Light Special matchup against a banged-up defense. 

The Bills weren’t a good rush defense even at full strength, and with injuries piling up, they may be one of the most ill-suited units in the league to slow down the Broncos. Buffalo has allowed 4.9 yards per carry against thus far and were crushed on the ground by both Jacksonville and New York in Weeks 5 and 6. 

The key for Buffalo will be making sure the Broncos cannot get their offense on the field. Allen will need to move the ball with either a big game from Diggs or punish this weaker coverage unit with a methodical pitch-and-catch game to Dalton Kincaid.

Kincaid seems like he’ll be a huge key for Buffalo in this game, coming in off a career performance of 10 receptions for 81 yards against Cincinnati. Denver has allowed the most yards and second-most fantasy points to opposing TEs this year. 

Best Bet: Broncos +7.0 (-110, BetMGM)

I bet the Broncos at +7.5 in our FREE bet tracker early in the week but would still take them as a side at flat 7.0 – which is where this number moved to almost everywhere Sunday morning. 

The injury report aside, it hasn’t been a good stretch for Buffalo, and some concerns are forming about their offensive playcalling. OC Ken Dorsey got the dreaded “vote of confidence” this week, but his coaching methods have been under duress. The Bills have been boom-or-bust this season, and as mentioned above, they’ve been held to 20 or less in three of their last five games. 

Still, I just love this matchup for Denver’s offense too much to want to back Buffalo to cover a TD. Denver has turned into one of the best rushing offenses in the league, and they seem likely to put Buffalo on their heels much the same way many of the Bills' recent opponents have. 

From a trends perspective, Sean Payton remains a solid coach to back. He’s historically 9-5 ATS as an underdog on extended rest (per The Action Network). Denver at anything +6.5 or better would have my attention here.

You can tail the Broncos at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to claim your offer and start betting today!

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

Additionally, our Utilization report breaks down each player’s recent usage in categories like carry percentage and target share, which can help us predict breakouts before they happen. 

Javonte Williams Over 13.5 Carries (-120; BetMGM)

Long story short, I don’t think the books or many projections have adjusted to Williams’ increase in usage just yet. Williams comes into this game having now taken 15 and 27 carries in each of his last two starts. His rushing attempt share has gone from 50% to 63% to 82% over his past three games, and his 66% snap count reached a season in the Broncos' last game.

Javonte

Oct 29, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) carries the ball for a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs in the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Williams is on the verge of reaching full-on bell-cow status, yet his props remain very similar to what they were as a part-time player earlier this season. I like going with the over on his carry total and have more “Javonte-degeneracy” for you in our ladder prop section for this week as well.

Josh Allen Over 267.5 passing yards (-114; FanDuel)

Allen’s passing line is all over the place, but at under 270, it looks like a solid over.

Given the Bills' issues on defense right now, Allen’s arm seems like the best way for the Bills to win games down the stretch. He’s had two receivers emerge in Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid of late, who helped push him to some big totals against Tampa Bay. He also faces a gettable secondary in Denver, who has allowed four passers to go for 290+ yards already. 

Additionally, if we like Denver to potentially put the Bills on the back heels with their ground game, looking for Buffalo to be forced to air it out and look for quick responses with their receivers does make sense from a game flow perspective. 

We have Allen set with the highest passing yards total of the week in our aggregate projections, making him a good over target for this game.

You can tail Allen on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place an initial bet of $5 or more!

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a fun way to try adding some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards at +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines.

For a more detailed description, make sure to check out our full primer on ladder bets.

Javonte Williams, RB - Broncos

There are a lot of explosive players in this game, making it a solid one for ladder betting. That said, the best matchup rests with Williams and this Denver rushing attack. Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughin remain involved, but Williams is the one chewing up yardage on the ground.

Williams may get 15+ carries in a crucial game for Denver, and when that has happened against Buffalo in the past, it’s been pretty good for the opposing runner. Travis Etienne chewed up Buffalo for 136 yards in Week 5, while Saquon Barkley — a far less potent rushing offense — still managed 93 yards in Week 6. 

The fact that I like the Broncos to keep this game somewhat close fits into the equation, but it’s worth noting that Willaims has averaged over 5.2 yards per carry between Weeks 7 and 8. Even if his touches are limited by the game script, Williams still has the talent to get to triple-digits.

You can tail the Williams ladder on bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place a first bet of just $1!

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Same-Game Parlay (+950; BetMGM)

  • Broncos +7.5
  • Allen 275+ passing yards
  • Kincaid 50+ receiving yards
  • Williams 50+ rushing yards
  • Williams anytime TD 

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can the Broncos dominate on the ground and pull the upset, or will the Bills offense rise up and make a mockery of Denver again? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

I don’t think we need to get fancy this week. These teams are exactly what they appear to be, and I expect them both to play to their strengths. Denver has a great rushing attack, and they’ve made a clear move toward making Williams the man. 

Williams has zero rushing TDs for the year, but I expect that to change this week. He took 11 of a possible 12 RB touches in the red zone in the Broncos' last game, and the Bills have allowed six rushing TDs to RBs over their previous six games. 

On the Bills side, Kincaid seems poised for a big game. Kincaid’s receiving props have moved up significantly, but including him as part of the same-game parlay makes a lot of sense to me. Denver has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing TEs in the league (despite already having their bye week), and Kincaid’s utilization has him neck and neck with Diggs the last couple of weeks. 

If we like Allen to go for a big week, including the over on Kincaid’s yardage prop is an easy way to get a little boost and put a bow on our thesis for the Bills' offense and this game. 

SGP

You can tail the SGP at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting today!

Regardless of how you choose to play this game, good luck this week!

Broncos vs Bills