Week 10 has officially kicked off and here to guide you through the weekend is Geoff Ulrich with his Week 10 NFL player props:
Good Morrow to you sirs and fine maidens.
Matthew Freedman has the week off, so I’ll be doing a one-week takeover of his regular NFL player prop article and will look to keep the positive vibes flowing as we get into the back half of the season.
Just like our regular author, you can find all my Week 10 NFL player props and bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.
If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.
Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props (good luck Freedman!).
NFL Player Props For Week 10
Derek Carr Over 202.5 passing yards
- Odds: -110 (bet365)
- Projection: 219.0 passing yards
On paper, this doesn’t look like the greatest spot for Carr. He’s lost his most explosive weapon in Rashid Shaheed, is almost certainly going to be without Chris Olave (concussion) this week, and has even seen his starting slot WR Bub Means get put on IR.
However, even with the Saints down three of their top WRs, this offense isn’t without weapons. They have three very viable pass-catching TEs, all with different skill sets, including Juwan Johnson, who profiles more as a WR and has gone for 40+ yards in three of his last four games.
Alvin Kamara–who has gone for 55 and 60 rec yards the last two weeks–also remains one of the best-receiving backs in the league and they have had another week to integrate new faces like WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling and WR Cedrick Wilson.
Carr is also in a very plus matchup. Atlanta gets no pressure (last in sacks per game) and allows a 70.85% completion rate to opposing QBs (last in the league). Since coming to New Orleans, Carr has faced the Falcons three times and has averaged 269.0 yards per game, which includes a 239-yard effort from Week 4.
Overall, I think Carr’s number is just too low this week, and somewhat of an overreaction to both the Saints' injuries and their loss last week to Carolina.
We have his over projected with a 15-plus-yard edge this week off his 202.5 total, making it a solid target for me in Week 10.
Tyrone Tracy anytime TD
- Odds: +105 (DraftKings)
- Projection: 0.6 TDs
I wrote up Tracy’s TD prop in our Week 10 TD article. Below is the jist of what I wrote there.
“Tracy has big game potential written all over him this week. The Panthers are 31st in EPA against the rush and 30th in success rate vs the rush. On the season, they have allowed 1.4 rushing TDs PER GAME to opposing RBs, which is the highest rate in the league by a wide margin (second place is four teams tied at 1.1 per game).
Despite some tough matchups of late, he’s also managed to find the endzone in two of his last four starts. At +105, this number doesn’t properly reflect the increased opportunity of late, the matchup, and just his overall talent level (5.0 yards per carry on the season).“
Just looking at our prop finder tool, you can still find Tracy’s anytime TD prop at the following prices:
- +105 DraftKings
- +100 BetMGM
I’d personally be OK playing him all the way down to -120 in this spot and will also be betting him for 2+ TDs, which is as big as +650 (DraftKings) at the time of writing.
Sam Darnold Under 30.5 pass attempts
- Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
- Projection: 28.0
Darnold has been impressively efficient this season. He enters this week with a 69.5% completion rate and an 8.5 yards per attempt metric. That’s led to some big passing outputs, but it’s almost all come on lower volume, as he’s now thrown the ball less than 30 times in a game in six of his eight starts.
This week seems like another spot where he’ll be very hard-pressed to approach that 30.0 attempt benchmark once again. On top of having a defense that allows a 70.72% completion rate (third worst in the league), the Jaguars have some serious issues on offense, which make it unlikely they’ll be competitive in this game.
Trevor Lawrence is now being touted as “unlikely” to play in Week 10 after it was reported he may need shoulder surgery to fix an injury suffered against the Eagles.
If Lawrence misses, that would mean Mac Jones would start, who has been sacked twice on nine pass attempts this season and posted a 10 TD to 12 INT ratio back in 2023, when he started 11 games for the Patriots.
We had Darnold projected right around 28 pass attempts, to begin with in this matchup, but without Lawrence on the other side to make this game competitive, Darnold has a shot to go well under this number.
I’d personally be OK playing this at 29.5 (-115), which it may move to once the Lawerence news settles in or becomes official.
Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 receptions
- Odds: +105 (DraftKings)
- Projection: 4.1 receptions
Indianapolis has allowed a 70.10% completion rate to opposing QBs (29th worst rate in the league) and that completion percentage only gets worse when the opposition is throwing to a TE.
On the season, the Colts have allowed 7.4 targets to opposing TEs per game (third-most in the league) and 6.3 receptions to TEs (tied for most in the league with the Chiefs). That’s an 85% completion rate allowed to the position.
When you add in the fact that both Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper may either miss this game or be less than 100% if they do play, it's hard not to see Kincaid excelling this week.
I am going against our projections a bit, but as long as Kincaid’s over (on 4.5 receptions) stays on the good side of +100, it’s still a bet I like targeting this week. He went over this 4.5 total in nine of his last 13 games last season and seems like a good candidate to have a big second half of the season.
Bo Nix Longest Completion Under 34.5 yards
- Odds: -115 (DraftKings)
- Projection: N/A (196 pass yards)
Last season, the Chiefs and Broncos played two very conservative, boring games where the Broncos ended up throwing for 95 yards (13 completions, 22 pass attempts) and 114 yards (12 completions, 19 pass attempts).
Even if we consider Bo Nix an upgrade over Russell Wilson, Kansas City’s pass defense remains a tight group that hasn’t allowed a pass completion longer than 20 yards over their last two games.
The Broncos themselves just aren’t great at creating explosive plays, nor do they have a ton of great open-field playmakers. RB Javonte Williams is more of a plodder who has one catch of 30+ yards on the season, and their WR core is led by Courtland Sutton who has exactly one catch of more than 35+ yards–a 37-yard catch and run which came against the weak secondary of Carolina.
We do have Nix projected for less than 200 yards–so you could also play his regular under, which is set as high as 210.5 passing yards at some shops–but I also love this under on longest completion.
For the season, he’s been under 34.5 for his longest pass in six of nine starts and will be hard-pressed to create a ton of big plays this week against such a stout defense in KC.
