Matt LaMarca reveals three Early NFL Betting Lines to target for Week 11.
One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 11 and look for some opportunities to find value.
Cleveland Browns (+3.0) at New Orleans Saints
- Current Line: -120; DraftKings
- Bet To: +3.0 (-125)
The Saints managed to pick up a win over the Falcons in Week 10, officially snapping their seven-game losing streak. It was their first game since firing Dennis Allen and replacing him with Darren Rizzi, so the “dead coach bounce” struck again.
That said, was what the Saints did really that impressive? Their offense scored 20 points, and they needed two bombs to Marques Valdez-Scantling to do it. He finished with 109 yards and 2 touchdowns on 3 catches, and that’s simply not going to happen every week.
The Falcons also repeatedly sabotaged themselves. They outgained New Orleans by more than 100 yards, but they had a back-breaking interception late in the fourth quarter and three missed field goals from the usually-sure-footed Younghoe Koo. Ultimately, the Falcons lost this game more than the Saints won it.
The Saints remain extremely banged up on offense, placing Chris Olave on IR on Saturday. He’s going to miss at least two more contests, and with the way their season is going, it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he’s out for the rest of the year. Rashid Shaheed is already out for the season, so this team simply doesn’t have a ton of talent on offense.
That could be a problem against a Browns defense that was one of the best in football last year. They haven’t performed to that level this year, but they’ll have additional time to prepare for this contest after getting the bye in Week 10.
Their offense is also heading in the right direction. They got back Nick Chubb a few weeks ago, and he should basically be at 100% at this point. They’ve also played far better since switching to Jameis Winston at quarterback, particularly in their Week 8 29-24 upset win over the Ravens.
I’m locking in Browns +3.0 (-120) now since this line is already +2.5 across most of the industry. If you can’t get a 3.0, I would still feel comfortable grabbing them as underdogs on the moneyline. I think Cleveland is the better team, so getting points in New Orleans just doesn’t feel right.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears
- Current Line: -110; FanDuel
- Bet To: -6.5 (-110)
It is officially panic time for Chicago. They had their third straight positive matchup this week, and their offense once again failed to capitalize. After being held to just 9 points and 241 yards vs. the Cardinals, they had just 3 points and 142 yards vs. the Patriots. That game was played at Soldier Field, where the team had won its previous eight games.
The big issue remains the offensive line. Caleb Williams took nine sacks vs. the Patriots just one week after 16 different members of the Cardinals recorded a quarterback pressure. Williams certainly isn’t helping by holding the ball for as long as he does, but there is very little to be excited about with the Bears’ offense.
On the other side, the Packers should be well rested after a bye in Week 10. Jordan Love has been at less than 100% of late, but with a full week off, he should be a full go vs. the Bears. Extra rest has historically been a big deal for favorites, posting a 140-118-8 record against the spread since 2005. Matt LaFleur is personally 2-1 when favored after a bye, and he’s 1-0 when the other team doesn’t also have extra time to prepare.
Ultimately, it’s hard to see the Bears scoring enough points to keep this game competitive. They still have an excellent defense, but they’ve failed to crack 15 points in three straight games. The Packers have scored at least 24 points in all but one game with Love under center, so I don’t mind laying the wood with Green Bay in this spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Current Line: -118; FanDuel
- Play To: +3.5 (-120)
I’ve had the Ravens' power rated as my No. 1 team for a while now. The gap has shrunk between them and the Lions—who are the better defensive team—but the Ravens’ offense is an absolute juggernaut. With Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and a deep group of pass catchers, I’m simply not sure how you stop this unit completely.
Still, that’s not to say that the Ravens can’t be beat. We’ve already seen them go down twice this season, including to the Raiders and Browns. They’ve also been taken to the wire by the Bengals twice, and they nearly let the Cowboys come back and beat them in Dallas.
I have this spread rated pretty close to 3 points, but I just can’t resist grabbing Mike Tomlin and Russell Wilson as underdogs. We did that last week vs. the Commanders, and they ended up pulling off an outright road victory.
This spot is arguably even better. This isn’t just Tomlin as an underdog; it’s Tomlin as a divisional home underdog. He’s absolutely thrived in all three of those splits separately:
- Tomlin as a dog: 60-31-3 ATS
- Tomlin at home: 75-63-4 ATS
- Tomlin in division: 58-41-3 ATS
When you add all three together, he’s a ridiculous 8-1-2 against the spread. It’s not a huge sample size, but Tomlin has covered in just under 89% of games in that split.
Wilson also has a fantastic record as an underdog (37-19-2 ATS), making him the second-most-profitable QB in that split since 2005. How in the world do you fade that dynamic duo, even against a team as good as the Ravens?
I’m locking in the +3.5 available at FanDuel to protect against this moving to 3.0. You’ll have to pay a bit of juice, but I think -120 or better is definitely playable.
