We're quickly approaching kickoff, but before it's here, Geoff Ulrich has his favorite Week 11 NFL player props to target:

I’m back, and this time for good.

With Matthew Freedman now on NFL Draft watch, the torch has been handed to me to finish off the year with the Fantasy Life prop betting article.

Last week was a profitable one if you tailed the five plays with the results as follows.

I’d like to give a special shoutout to Adam Trautman for not fighting too hard for that extra yard on this 34-yard play and helping that Nix Under hit. 

This week I’ll also be adding in a few Underdog Pick’em lineups at the end of the article. If you’re not familiar with Pick’em, make sure you check out our suite of Pick’em Tools and free tracker where I post plays from Underdog and other sites every week. 

Just like usual, you can find all my Week 11 bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props …

NFL Player Props For Week 11

Brock Purdy Over 252.5 passing yards

  • Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
  • Projection: 263.0 passing yards

Purdy is playing great ball so far this season. Entering Week 11 he ranks:

  • 2nd in yards per attempt at 8.8 yards per throw
  • 5th in EPA per play among qualifying QBs
  • 6th in passing yards (with a game in hand over several top QBs)

This week, he’ll also take on a Seahawks team that he’s averaged 277 yards per game against in three career meetings.

Seattle is just 19th in yards per attempt as a defense and earlier in the year allowed Jared Goff to complete a perfect game against them—who threw for 292 yards on 18-for-18 passing. They’ve also faced a relatively weak group of QBs this season (Jacoby Brissett/Daniel Jones/Skylar Thompson) so their actual effectiveness as a pass defense may be worse than currently advertised. 

Purdy also had a nice uptick in efficiency last week after he got back reliable downfield receiver Jauan Jennings and after-the-catch maestro Christian McCaffrey back, who posted a 6-68 line receiving. 

I don’t expect Purdy to total 358 yards through the air again, but with San Francisco’s issues on special teams and defense, where they’re just 23rd in EPA per rush, I do think he’ll have enough dropbacks and downfield attempts to approach 300 yards. 

Ultimately, we have Purdy projected in the low 260s this week. With his prop sitting below 255.0 at many books, it’s enough of an edge for me to take his over.

Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD

  • Odds: -110 (DraftKings)
  • Projection: 0.6 TDs 

After we hit a TD prop last week with Tyrone Tracy against the Panthers, I’m going to keep the momentum going in Week 11 by targeting another bellcow for an anytime TD in Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor was also my lead pick in the Week 11 TD-prop article, and here’s the gist of what I wrote there.

“If Taylor did let you down last week, take heed, as there is a great chance he rectifies the lack of scoring in Week 11. Like the Bills, the Jets rush defense seems to be getting worse as the season wears on. They’ve now allowed at least one rushing TD to an opposing RB in four straight games and are 27th in success rate per rush.

Further, while the change at QB for the Colts may seem bad for Taylor’s opportunity around the goal line, having Richardson vs. Flacco has been a positive for him from a production standpoint this season. Taylor has scored in four of the five games that he and Richardson started together, with the added pressure of having to defend a rushing QB inside the red zone likely helping his efficiency on those short-yardage carries.

Whatever the case, Taylor has now scored in four of seven games this season, and nine of his last 12 games in this Shane Steichen system–making the 52% implied odds at -110 look like a great bargain.”

Just looking at our prop finder tool, you can still find Taylor’s anytime TD prop at the following prices:

  • -110 DraftKings
  • -125 BetMGM
  • -135 FanDuel

I’d personally be OK playing him all the way down to -125 in this spot and will also be betting him for 2+ TDs, which is as big as +650 (DraftKings) as of writing.

Jordan Love Under 32.5 pass attempts

  • Odds: -115 (bet365)
  • Projection: 30.0

I like the Packers in this game. They’re the deeper team, well-coached, and coming in off a bye. 

In many ways, this bet is an extension of that as any Packers win likely sees Love put in an efficient, but low-volume performance. 

The Bears are also the proper opponent for the Packers to go run-heavy against. They’re first in EPA per dropback but just 24th in EPA per rush. Their last two opponents, the Cardinals and Patriots, each racked up over 140 yards rushing against them–not a great sign considering the Patriots are just 28th in success rate per rush. 

Teams playing the Bears have also figured out it's best not to test this pass defense either. Their last three opponents have averaged a measly 27.7 pass attempts, and only three QBs on the season have thrown more than 30 times against Chicago. 

When it comes down to it, this one was a pretty simple one for me to add for me. Our projections have Love sitting around 30.0 attempts, which is 2.5 off his actual total at most books, and I not only like trusting our projections but also agree with them very hardily in this case. 

For Love to go over this prop, the Bears will essentially have to reverse weeks' worth of trends, which include being a bottom-tier rush defense and one of the least efficient offenses in the league. 

That’s something I’m OK betting against at the current number.

Jameson Williams Over 44.5 receiving yards

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 53.0 

Despite not being a huge Jameson Williams guy, it’s hard not to see the upside lurking in this matchup. The Jaguars are bad at almost everything but excel at allowing big plays downfield. They’re 28th in success rate against the pass and have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing WRs. 

Williams himself has made a lot of skeptics into believers this season, including me. The Lions wideout is one of only six WRs in the league with six catches of 40+ yards and, via our Utilization Report, leads the Lions with a 35% team air yards share.

 

Even in a tougher matchup against the stodgy Texans pass defense, he still managed to go over 50 yards receiving and led the Lions with 140 air yards–the fifth most in Week 10. 

Overall, Williams has now gone for 50+ yards in five of seven games and has averaged a stout 93.33 yards in his three home starts. 

There are some game script concerns with how bad the Jaguars offense projects to be under Mac Jones, but at just 44.5 yards, it feels like Williams’ total has now overcorrected to account for that matchup. 

Either way, I’d be fine playing this at anything under 48.0 yards, given our projections have Williams’ receiving total set in the low 50s.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Over 23.5 receiving yards 

  • Odds: -120 (bet365)
  • Projection: 24.0 receiving yards 

I also wrote up Westbrook-Ikhine in our TD prop article this week, who I think is worthy of a speculative play in that market. Here’s some of what I wrote in that article.

“With the Titans having traded away DeAndre Hopkins, their depth chart at WR is barren. Calvin Ridley is going to get primary targets most weeks, and Tyler Boyd will man the slot, but after those two the only WR of note of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, a tall WR with range, who played on 100% of the snaps in Week 10, while converting all three of his targets into catches. 

At 27 and having run a 4.57 40 out of college, Westbrook-Ikhine isn't going to blow past people downfield, but he’s a player who has shown great body control for his size, has good hands, and the ability to play the slot and outside.”

As much as I like TD props (especially ones that are +500) the conservative and likely better long-term play on Westbrooke-Ikhine this week is to take him to go over his yardage prop, which opened as low as 23.5 in spots. 

Our DvP Tool—which awards yardage and fantasy boosts to players based on matchup—rates a matchup with the Vikings as the fifth-best for a WR from a yardage boost perspective.

 

While we’re not projecting Westbrook-Ikhine for a huge day, he’s a legit outside receiver who will likely play over 90% of his team's snaps and has gone for 30+ yards now in three straight starts. 

I expect him to post another comparable line this week – and to potentially even surprise with a little more upside. 

Week 11 Underdog NFL Pick’em Plays

Quick Note: You can find all my weekly Underdog plays in our FREE Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season.

Keep checking there for more plays as the season wears on.

Underdog Pick'em Entry #1 (15.9x multiplier)

A pretty simple play on my Love thesis from above, by adding in two correlated plays:

  •  a higher on yards for Odunze who should be seeing more targets if the Bears are behind 
  •  plus a higher on attempts for Jacobs (we have him projected at 17.3 carries). 

I also added a small alternate line play on Williams combined with a Goff Higher to make it a 5-way ticket.

 

Underdog Pick'em Entry #2 (5.07x multiplier) 

Using the higher on Purdy and combining with a receiving line on McCaffrey that looks low compared to his historical norms. Walker is a good comeback play against the 49ers rush defense that ranks just 23rd in EPA per rush.

 

Underdog Pick'em Entry #3 (9.24x multiplier)

Straight alternate line play on Westbrook-Ikhine (who will likely play most of the snaps against a weaker secondary).

Adding in a combo alternate line play on Minshew and Bowers to make this a bigger payout.

There is a risk Minshew gets pulled but his regular line is quite low given the spot with Raiders as big underdogs. Miami’s cover-three defense should allow a lot of underneath passes to Bowers who is tremendous after the catch.

If Minshew plays the entire game he should have a good chance of hitting this.

 

Looking to find even more Pick'em edges? Try our DFS Pick'em Tools to find the biggest edges for your plays this weekend!