Week 11 features some marquee primetime matchups, but on the surface, Sunday Night Football isn’t one of them. The Vikings will travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in a battle between fringe playoff contenders.

That said, both of these teams are trending in the right direction. The Vikings have won six of their past seven games, while the Broncos have won three straight. That includes back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Bills, who are two of the best teams in the AFC.

Which team will keep their hot streak rolling? Let’s dive into some of the best bets for Sunday Night Football.

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos:

  • Spread: Broncos -2.5 (-115; BetMGM)
  • Total: 42.5
  • Moneylines: Vikings +115/Broncos -140

What has turned around for these two squads in recent weeks?

For the Vikings, the biggest change is that they’ve started to get a bit luckier. They were easily the unluckiest team in football through their first three contests, resulting in three one-possession losses. Those were the types of games that the Vikings thrived in last season, so the chickens came home to roost from a variance perspective.

The Vikings were always due for some regression following last year’s historic campaign, but they’re still not a bad team. They were nowhere near as good as their 13-4 record suggested, but they didn’t deserve to be 0-3, either.

Since then, things have normalized a bit. They’re 6-4 with an expected record of 5.6-4.4, and they’re in the top 12 in both scoring and yardage differential. They’re 11th in EPA/play offensively and ninth on defense, so they’ve been productive on both sides of the ball.

Of course, most of that production came with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. He was lost to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago, and Josh Dobbs is now the man under center.

Dobbs has looked good in his first two outings, averaging 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt despite literally not knowing his teammates' names in his first contest. Still, he’s not Cousins. He represents a clear downgrade, even if he has become a social media sensation.

With Dobbs at quarterback, the Vikings check in at No. 23 in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, making them -1.62 points below average.

On the other side, Denver’s big change came on defense. They started the year as one of the worst teams in the league on that side of the ball, culminating in a 70-point, 726-yard debacle vs. the Dolphins. However, they’re up to sixth in EPA/play defensively during their three-game winning streak. They held the Chiefs to 274 yards in Week 8 and the Bills to 369 yards in Week 10, and they forced nine turnovers in the process.

If the Broncos can continue to play that well on defense, their offense is good enough to win games. They’re 17th in EPA/play for the year, and they’re getting much better production out of Russell Wilson in his second season in Denver. He’s averaged 7.6 adjusted yards per attempt with 18 touchdown passes and four interceptions, and his 15th at the position in Pro Football Focus grade. All of those represent significant increases from his marks last season.

Best Bet: Under 42.5 (-108; DraftKings)

The seemingly neverending string of primetime unders was finally snapped on Thursday. The Bengals and Ravens combined for 54 points, despite Joe Burrow leaving the game early with an injury.

Could that be a sign of things to come?

Possibly, but I’m going back to the under well on Sunday night. Even with the over on Thursday, primetime unders are still an insane 25-8 for the season and 150-92-3 since 2019-20.

Both of these squads have also been under teams for most of the season. The Vikings are 7-3 to the under this season, while the Broncos are 5-4.

The Broncos’ improved defense has helped of late, but so has their play style. They’ve had a dropback over expected (DBOE) of -2.0% or lower in four straight games, including three games above -7.0%. They’ve also averaged -0.22 plays per minute over expected (PPMOE) for the year, so they’re playing slow in addition to being run-heavy.

It also seems unlikely that the Vikings will get back Justin Jefferson this week. He’s currently questionable, but ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said on SportsCenter that he’s “a long shot” to suit up. That means the Vikings will likely be without their top offensive weapon for one more week.

There has been a smidge of sharp action on the over and on the Broncos -2.5, but I’m sticking to my guns with a primetime under. They’re a big part of the reason why I’m 11-1 on total bets in the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

You can tail the under on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account and place a $5 bet below!

Player Props

Russell Wilson Over 4.5 rush attempts (-150; DraftKings)

Wilson has turned back the clocks in recent weeks. He may not be quite as nimble as he was in his youth, but he’s used his legs far more often over the past few games. He’s had a designed run rate of at least nine percent in back-to-back games, and he’s had a scramble rate of at least 10% in four of his past five.

Russell Wilson

Oct 1, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) passes against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Add it all up, and Wilson has 17 total carries in his past two contests.

The Broncos have won both of those games against good opponents, so I doubt they’re going to change things up too much vs. the Vikings. Minnesota has also been a good matchup for rushing volume this season, with opposing QBs averaging more than seven carries per game.

Marvin Mims Over 14.5 receiving yards (-120; BetMGM)

When it comes to Mims, I’m feeling like Michael Corleone in The Godfather III — “just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”

We’ve wanted Mims to be a thing for a while now. He has the deep speed, and he’s generated a few big plays so far this season. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t had a ton of opportunities.

A casual look at the Week 10 box score will tell you it was more of the same vs. the Bills: one target, zero catches, and -3 rushing yards. However, a deeper dive into his utilization reveals more involvement than usual. He posted a 76% route participation, which was his highest mark of the season. Mims was at just 41% and 45% over his previous two contests, so it represented a significant uptick in opportunities.

Running a route is merely the first step towards earning targets, but it’s a big step nonetheless. Our projections are still bearish on Mims, but Matthew Freedman has Mims projected for closer to 27 receiving yards. All he needs is one catch to potentially blow this number out of the water.

You can tail Mims on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you create a new account below!

T.J. Hockenson Anytime Touchdown (+295; DraftKings)

I’m not a TD prop guy. I know, I know…I’m real fun at parties. While my buddies are all sweating out degenerate plays like a Noah Gray anytime TD during the Super Bowl, I’m the guy with a ticket on no safety at -1000.

Fortunately, Geoff Ulrich is willing to live a little. He's highlighted T.J. Hockenson as a worthy anytime TD play in this game:

These odds look way too big for Sunday Night. Even with Jefferson potentially coming back, I fully expect Hockenson to remain a main target for Dobbs.

Hockenson has seen target shares of 34% and 45% the last two weeks and now faces a Denver defense that has allowed the most fantasy points against opposing TEs, per game – and allowed Dalton Kincaid to find the end zone last week. 

Hockenson has gone off at far lower odds than this in the anytime TD market earlier in the season and with Dobbs looking his way often, and a prime matchup, I like grabbing a piece of him this week and hoping he finds the endzone again in Week 11.

Find all of Geoff’s picks in his Week 11 touchdown scorers piece.

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try to add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards at +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes over all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

TJ Hockenson

Jan 15, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) runs with the ball against the New York Giants during the third quarter of a wild card game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Since Geoff made such a strong case for T.J. Hockenson in the touchdown section, let’s look at some of his alternative receiving totals as well. You can get 60+ yards at +124, 80+ yards at +280, and 100+ yards at +580 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Those might seem like unlikely outputs for a tight end, but Hockenson is not a typical tight end. His skill set is closer to that of a receiver, and he’s been massively involved with Dobbs under center. He had 12 targets against the Falcons two weeks ago, and he followed that up with 15 targets against the Saints.

Hockenson will have a bit more competition for targets with K.J. Osborn expected to rejoin the lineup, but he’s still the clear top guy with Jefferson sidelined. Considering how good this matchup is, it wouldn’t shock me at all if Hockenson had another big game.

Same-Game Parlay

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can the Passtronaut do it again? Will the Broncos’ defense continue to thrive? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

I’m starting with the under, and I’m also going to back the Broncos on the moneyline. I think that combination makes sense. If the Broncos are going to win this game, they’re going to need to continue to play strong defense. During their three-game winning streak, the Broncos and their opponents have combined for 38.3 points. When they lost five of six games to start the year, the average scoring was 54.8 points per game.

After that, I’m going to stick with the Hockenson props. Adding an anytime touchdown and at least 60 receiving yards brings the potential payout to better than +2150:

SGP

The Broncos ML and Under 42.5 don’t correlate perfectly with Hockenson, but there’s still plenty of opportunities for Hockenson to have a good game in a low-scoring Broncos win.

Regardless of how you choose to play this game, good luck this week!

You can tail the SGP on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

SNF Betting Breakdown