Week 11 gets off to a phenomenal start with a marquee AFC North showdown on Thursday night. The Bengals will travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in a game with massive playoff implications.

All four teams in the AFC North have winning records, with the Ravens sitting at 7-3 and the Bengals at 5-4. Baltimore holds a half game lead over the Browns and Steelers for the top spot in the division, while the Bengals are trying to claw up the standings over the second half of the season.

Can Baltimore maintain their division supremacy, or will the Bengals make a stand? Let’s dive into my favorite betting angles for Thursday Night Football.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens:

  • Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-115; BetMGM)
  • Total: 46.0
  • Moneylines: Bengals +155/Ravens -190

The records may not reflect it, but it’s possible that these are two of the five best teams in football.

Baltimore has a claim to being the best team in the league. They’re the No. 1 team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, checking in at +8.6 points better than the average team on a neutral field. That puts them slightly ahead of the 49ers (+8.29) and well ahead of the second tier of contenders.

The Ravens are elite on both sides of the ball. Their offense got off to a slow start this season, but that’s not all that surprising after an offseason regime change. They’ve also dealt with their fair share of injuries.

However, they’ve started to click in recent weeks. They’ve scored at least 31 points in each of their past four contests, and they’re third in offensive EPA/play over that time frame. For the year, they’re now fifth in points per game and ninth in yards.

The Ravens are built on a strong rushing attack led by Lamar Jackson. He’s not running quite as much this season as in years past, but he remains one of the best rushing QBs in football. He’s averaged 5.2 yards per attempt and added five touchdowns, and he has a 53.3% success rate when using his legs.

Baltimore has employed a committee backfield since J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury, with Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and Keaton Mitchell all playing a role. All three players have averaged at least 4.1 yards per attempt, while their offensive line ranks sixth in Pro Football Focus run blocking grade. Add it all up, and they’re first in the league in EPA/rush.

While the Ravens’ offense is just rounding into form, their defense has been elite all season. They’re second in EPA/play defensively, trailing only the Browns. They lack a premier player like some of the other top defenses in football, but they’re above average at virtually every position across the board.

With a top-two defense and a blossoming top-five offense, this might just be the most complete team in the league. It’s easy to see why the sharps have been high on the Ravens basically all season.

Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws a touchdown pass to Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Trenton Irwin (16) in the first quarter of a Week 10 NFL football game between the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Bengals struggled out of the gates this season, but that was almost entirely due to the health of Joe Burrow. He suffered a calf injury during training camp, and it clearly impacted him during the early part of the year.

However, Burrow has played significantly better over the past few contests, particularly following the team’s Week 7 bye. Since then, he’s averaged 8.86 adjusted yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and two interceptions, and the team has scored at least 27 points in all three contests.

With the offense now firing on all cylinders, the coast is clear for the Bengals to make a big move over the second half of the season. Even though they’re currently on the outside of the AFC playoff picture, they still have the eighth-best Super Bowl odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Bet: Over 46.0 (-110; FanDuel)

Personally, this was a really tough game to find a best bet.

From a side perspective, the easy choice is to take the Bengals grabbing either 3.5 or 4.0 points. The opportunities to back an elite quarterback like Burrow getting points are few and far between, and Burrow has been an absolute master at covering in these spots for his career. He’s played in 17 career games as an underdog of at least three points (including playoffs), and he’s a mind-boggling 15-2 ATS in those outings. That’s good for a +68.5% ROI, which is frankly absurd.

Unsurprisingly, the public has absolutely flocked to the Bengals as underdogs. They’ve received 74% of the bets and 83% of the dollars (per the Action Network), so the sportsbooks are going to have major liability to the Bengals on Thursday.

Why, then, has this number steadily risen from 3.5 to 4.0?

It’s because there has been some sharp action on the Ravens, which doesn’t really surprise me. As I mentioned earlier, the sharps have been all over the Ravens all season, so I think there is some value with the Ravens in most of their power ratings. Even if you only give the Ravens half a point for home-field advantage, Massey-Peabody still thinks this spread should be more than a full touchdown.

I would side with the Ravens if forced to pick a side, but Burrow’s record as an underdog terrifies me. I’m ultimately going to pass.

Instead, let’s look toward the over. I’ve talked about primetime unders all season, which have been an absolute ATM for bettors. Unders on games starting at 7 p.m. ET or later have gone an astounding 25-7 so far this season, and the under has hit in 11 straight games. The last primetime game to over was the Saints and Jaguars on Thursday Night Football in Week 7. That was nearly a month ago.

This isn’t a new phenomenon either. Primetime unders are 150-91-3 since the start of the 2019-20 season, so there’s been a solid edge to those bets for a while now.

Taking an over in a primetime game has been the equivalent of lighting money on fire, but that’s where I’m going for Bengals-Ravens. With Burrow fully healthy and Jackson thriving, I think both of these offenses should be able to put some points on the board.

The sharps are also on the over in this spot, which is why this number has risen from 44.0 to 46.0. It could close even higher—the over has received 63% of the bets and 72% of the dollars—so I’m locking in a play now. In total betting, 47 is a key number, so I want to make sure I get in before it reaches that threshold.

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Tyler Boyd Over 4.5 receptions (+115; BetMGM)

I’m a sucker for a plus-money prop, especially one that is projected for as much value as this one. We have Boyd projected for 5.5 catches, so grabbing the over on 4.5 at better than even money is extremely appealing.

The big news for the Bengals is the continued absence of Tee Higgins. He’ll miss his second straight game, and Boyd saw a significant bump in utilization in his absence last week. He had a 31% target share—his top mark of the season—and was targeted on 27% of his routes run. Overall, he racked up 12 targets, 8 grabs, and 117 receiving yards.

Boyd could’ve had an even bigger day if not for a potential dropped touchdown.

I’m going right back to the well with Boyd vs. the Ravens. While the Ravens are a much tougher matchup than the Texans, Boyd’s volume is simply too good to pass up.

You can tail Boyd at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting today.

Lamar Jackson Under 224.5 passing yards (-115; DraftKings)

This is a rare spot where I’m actually going against our projections. I think they’re a little too bullish on Jackson’s passing upside in this matchup.

For starters, this is too high of a median expectation for Jackson to begin with. He’s not the type of quarterback who looks to carve teams up with his arm, and he’s averaged just 217.7 passing yards per game this season. He’s been below 224.5 in seven of his 10 games in 2023.

The Bengals have also been more exploitable on the ground than through the air. They’re merely 28th in rushing EPA defensively, which plays perfectly into the Ravens’ biggest strength. They’re not quite as run-heavy as they’ve been in years past, but expect them to lean on their RBs in this spot.

You can tail Jackson's under on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and make a first bet of $5 or more.

Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown (+155, FanDuel)

I’m not a TD prop guy. I know, I know…I’m real fun at parties. While my buddies are all sweating out degenerate plays like a Noah Gray anytime TD during the Super Bowl, I’m the guy with a ticket on no safety at -1000.

Fortunately, Geoff Ulrich is willing to live a little. He's highlighted Mark Andrews as a worthy anytime TD play in this game:

I don’t normally like taking receivers when they are priced this far below +200, but Andrews is here for a reason. He’s seen 32% of the end zone targets this year and leads all the Ravens receivers in total red zone targets with 14. Further, he likes playing the Bengals. 

In 11 career matchups with the Bengals, Andrews has scored 7 TDs and posted a 5-45-1 line against them in Week 2, in his first game back from injury. The Bengals have had issues covering the middle of the field all season after losing safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates and come in having allowed four TDs and the ninth-most receptions to opposing TEs this year.

It’s a good time to take a shot that Andrews finds the end zone once again.

You can tail Andrews on FanDuel and get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place a $5 bet below!

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try to add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards at +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes over all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

Keaton Mitchell

Nov 5, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell (34) celebrates his touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

This week, I’m diving into the uncertainty in the Ravens’ backfield. Trying to predict how the touches are going to shake out is difficult, but one thing is certain: Mitchell has some juice.

The undrafted rookie free agent has blazing speed—his 4.37 40-yard dash puts him in the 99th percentile at the position—and he’s used it to great success in recent weeks. He’s had just 12 carries this season, but two of them have gone for at least 39 yards.

It would not shock me if Mitchell has earned a large share of the rushing pie moving forward, making him an interesting ladder target vs. the Bengals. You can grab 40+ yards at +108, 50+ yards at +174, and 60+ yards at +265 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

His big-play ability makes it possible for him to hit these thresholds on just one touch—he already has a 60-yard carry this season—so any increase in workload is just icing on the cake. I’m much more interested in some of these alternate numbers than his traditional rushing prop, making him a clear ladder target.

Same-Game Parlay

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Will Joe Burrow continue his dominance as an underdog? Will the Ravens’ rushing attack reign supreme? Can primetime unders continue to hit forever? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

For this week’s SGP, I’m going to start by pairing over 46.5 and the Ravens moneyline. I’m a bit conflicted on the spread, but I do think the Ravens should be able to win this game at home. We’re sacrificing a bit of potential upside by not laying the points, but this is a rare instance where I think the moneyline makes more sense than the spread.

After that, I’m adding in the over on 45 receiving yards for Boyd and at least two touchdown passes for Burrow. Burrow has at least two TDs in five straight games, and we’re going to need some scoring from the Bengals if this game is going to go over.

Next, let’s dive into the Ravens’ rushing attack. I think they’re going to have success in this spot, even if it’s tough to pinpoint who will have that success. One certainty is that Gus Edwards is the locked-in goal line back. He should get the touches from inside the five-yard line, making him a strong anytime TD choice to pair with the Ravens ML.

Add it all up, and it results in a solid +900 potential payout:

SGP

Regardless of how you choose to play this game, good luck this week!

Thursday night football betting breakdown