Matt LaMarca breaks down the best bets for Week 12 Monday Night Football featuring the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers.
After a bit of a snoozer last Monday night, we’ve got an absolute banger lined up for Week 12. The Baltimore Ravens travel west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in a game with potential playoff implications. The Ravens are listed as 2.5-point road favorites, while the total currently sits at 50.5 points.
Baltimore is currently sitting at 7-4 for the year, putting it behind the Steelers in the highly competitive AFC North. However, the Ravens are still considered one of the favorites in the AFC. They’re +350 to win the conference on BetMGM, putting them behind only the Chiefs and the Bills. Lamar Jackson also trails only Josh Allen in the MVP market, and he’s arguably having his best season as a passer. That’s a scary thought for a player who has already taken home two MVP trophies in his career.
The Chargers have breezed to a 7-3 record, but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in football. They’ve only played four teams that entered Week 12 above .500, and they’re just 3-1 in those contests. Still, they boast a strong defense, and Justin Herbert has played some of his most efficient football since joining the league. This will be a big test for them, but the Chargers have looked the part recently.
Let’s dive into my favorite bets for Monday Night Football.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers—50.5 total
The Ravens have undoubtedly been the best offensive team in football this season. Adding Derrick Henry to their backfield has made their running game basically unstoppable, while Jackson has more weapons at his disposal than at any point in his NFL career. They can’t even seem to find snaps for the receiver they acquired at the trade deadline (Diontae Johnson), so it’s an embarrassment of riches.
That said, as good as their offense is, their defense has kept this team from being as good as they should be. Specifically, their pass defense has been an abomination. They’re 28th in dropback EPA, and they’re allowing more passing yards per game than any unit in football.
Despite sitting at 7-4, the Ravens could very easily have lost both games to the Bengals. There’s a world not that far from ours where the Bengals are the 7-4 squad, and the Ravens are the team that has to fight their way out from the bottom.
The Chargers just dispatched the Bengals last week on Sunday Night Football. Their offense put together one of their best performances of the year, finishing with 34 points and 435 yards of total offense, while their defense managed to hang on in the second half. They did that without Khalil Mack, who is tentatively expected to suit up on Monday.
Both Matthew Freedman and Geoff Ulrich locked in early plays on the Ravens in our NFL Bet Tracker, and they were able to secure some closing line value. That said, I see this game differently than they do. I’ve been bearish on the Chargers for most of the year, but with Jim Harbaugh moving the offense into the modern era in recent weeks, I think this is a really good team.
This line has gotten to Chargers +3.0 at times the week, but the sharps have gobbled up that number whenever it becomes available. If you can find a +3.0 at some point before kickoff, I wouldn’t hesitate to grab it.
If it stays at +2.5, you can either grab the spread or take the Chargers on the moneyline. Historically, taking a plus-money payout has provided more EV than the points, but it’s really a personal preference. You’re going to lose a bit more often on the moneyline than with the +2.5, but the extra dollars you’re earning on the moneyline overcomes that in the end. I’m personally going to wait it out and see if this gets back to +3.0, but I’ll grab the moneyline at +125 if I have to.
The Pick: Chargers ML (+125; BetMGM)
Player Props for Monday Night Football
Quentin Johnston Over 3.5 receptions (-115; DraftKings)
Johnston is coming off 8 targets last week vs. the Bengals in a game where the Chargers had a +8% Dropback Over Expectation. That was tied for their most pass-heavy game script of the season, and I think a similar approach is warranted vs. the Ravens. They’ve been a major pass funnel all season, so attacking them through the air is the easiest way to move the ball. Johnston managedonly two grabs last week, but if he can get to 5 or 6 targets in this spot, I like his chances of catching at least 4 passes.
Gus Edwards Anytime Touchdown (+420; Caesars)
Edwards returned to the lineup in Week 10, and he’s had 30% of the team’s carries in back-to-back games. That includes 50% of the short-yardage opportunities last week vs. the Bengals. Edwards has the prototypical size for a goal-line hammer, so +420 feels generous in a game with plenty of expected scoring.
Ladd McConkey 100+ receiving yards (+310; FanDuel)
McConkey’s traditional receiving props are higher than usual this week, so I’m hunting for an alt line instead. He’s been the team’s unquestioned top receiver all season, leading the team with a 24% target share, and he had a 30% mark last week. The result was a season-high 9 targets, which he turned into 6 catches for 123 yards. He’s had over 100 receiving yards in the Chargers’ two most pass-heavy games of the year, and with a similar game plan anticipated vs. the Ravens, his upside is not being properly priced.
