In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
I’m not gonna do what everyone thinks I’m gonna do… and flip out, man. But wow, Steelers backers like myself stayed up all night nauseous. Did Cleveland win? Or did Mike Tomlin strap us to a nightmarish ride through a bitter hellscape of miserable fourth-down decision-making? My goodness, people. What in the world was that? Mr. Big Bucks punted when he should’ve kicked, kicked when he should’ve gone, and gone when he should’ve punted—plus every variation in between.
Then, despite the buffoonery, a late window of opportunity opens. Pittsburgh picks Winston off with 4:28 left on the clock to set up a short field and our cover. Easy game, right? Nope. Justin Fields comes in, throws a wobbly frozen duck on third down, PIT punts and loses. Womp womppppp.
Let’s not dwell on the past. Sally forth!
Sunday NFL Blitz Preview, Part I: Nothing beats a quick once-over on what to expect in Week 11. Each Friday, I crack open my very worn and beaten binder to share some personal hand notes and help you finalize your prep on the early slate.
Buccaneers (4-6) at Giants (2-8): Save your Sopranos’ references people, we’re guaranteed to get our fill during Sunday’s broadcast. Big Blue has dropped five straight, including a loss to the hapless Panthers. That disaster finally sparked an admission of structural defeat at its core, deciding to move on from practice-squad safety Daniel Jones. Brian Daboll’s intention seems clear. The Giants will turn to Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito Sunday instead of Drew Lock because they don’t want to win. Remember—players always try, so tanking happens at the managerial level. Funny thing is the Bucs haven’t stopped anyone on defense, as the secondary is atrocious. In fact, San Fran’s 20-point output in Week 10 marked the first time an opponent fell short of hanging 26 in seven games. Woof. Tampa’s also set to return future Hall of Famer WR Mike Evans to the fray. So everywhere you look, it’s unstoppable forces meeting movable objects. Something’s gotta give. LEAN: TB/NYG OVER 41 (-122)
Lions (9-1) at Colts (5-6): Giddy up, Anthony Richardson’s back! I won’t take full personal credit for the Colts waking up, but we planted that flag weeks ago. To invest a premium pick in a talent-rich, experience-poor prospect only to bench him at the first sign of struggle is a failure of resolve. I’m not saying two weeks of learning how to throw interceptions from Joe Flacco will right the offense. I am saying that directionally, it’s unequivocally the correct decision. Sadly for Indy, there’s also a defensive element to the game of football. I’d give this secondary a snow-cone’s chance atop the Pyramids of stopping Dan Campbell’s well-oiled Lion offense. LEAN: AGAINST THE WALL, MONEY SAFE IN MY WALLET
Titans (2-8) at Texans (7-4): Glad I properly vented on the Steelers because I could easily blow my top over that first play Nico Collins TD being called back last week. Brutal beat. Anyway, Houston did take care of an inferior opponent, something aspirational teams must do. They’ll be asked to achieve a slightly tougher task against the two-win division rival Titans on Sunday. Tennessee’s probably better than its record, particularly on the defensive side. I’ll be watching for two specific things. First, an uptick in Collins’ route participation, the missing piece in the Texans’ offensive puzzle (I hope). And then to see if Will Levis continues to clean up his game. A single pick in two games is definitely encouraging but there’s work left to do—Levis still took 10 sacks in that span. LEAN: TEN/HOU under 41 (-122)
Patriots (3-8) at Dolphins (4-6): In another part of the multiverse, this game’s exciting for an entirely different set of reasons. New England waited too long to start Drake Maye—or we could be talking about division, if not Wild Card, hopes. Miami should be thinking about next season except the AFC can’t get out of its own way. Expect Mike McDaniel to bring the kitchen sink—the Dolphins still somehow hold the 9-seed, just two games behind the inexperienced Colts and Broncos. I know MIA finally scored, but it happened once against the Raiders. Let’s not be too reactive. New England’s built for close games. LEAN: NE +7.5 (-110)
Cowboys (3-7) at Commanders (7-4): Do yourself a favor. Don’t watch the Cowboys’ tape since losing Dak Prescott—it’s over. The Cowboys exposed themselves as being too top-heavy and it came back to bite them on the bottom. And now, all-world alpha WR CeeDee Lamb has been downgraded from limited to DNP? You have to think the second he’s listed out the spread makes a beeline for 13. Washington’s in a smash spot any way you want to slice it. LEAN: WAS -10 (-110)
Hope you enjoyed Part One of the NFL Blitz! We’ll analyze the rest Sunday morning with two more bets. Catch me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions or comments. Or just come say hey!
You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Watercooler: An Expert Roundtable. Burger King has an Advent calendar? And more!
- Why I’m all in on the Commanders
- Prop Bet of the Week: Rachaad White And Blue
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🔥 Not sure if everyone here is familiar with the great Cooterdoodle, but holy crap she is incredible at running a fantasy football roundtable.
❤️ And speaking of cooterdoodle, she gets a mention in the open for Matthew Berry’s Week 12 Love/Hate.
👀 We will be live at 10 a.m. ET tomorrow previewing the best bets, props, and more in college football. The season’s almost over, people! Get in while you can!
💰 Geoff Ulrich won a lot of people a lot of money last week with his props column. Here’s this week’s, hot off the presses!
🍟 Hey, it snowed last night! Holidays are ON. And here is the weirdest/coolest Advent calendar of the season.
🧠 Fantasy footballers take note: Chris Allen writes the best WR/CB column out there. U R Welcome.
THE BET: COMMANDERS -10 (-110) @BET365
After a rough patch out of the gate reading injury tea leaves, it’s been mostly sunny skies since taking a proactive rather than reactive approach. You have to watch those injury reports carefully, especially when it comes to downgrades. We don’t know if CeeDee Lamb’s back injury is legit. That’s part of the game. I do think another DNP sparks a market reaction. I know boomers tend to scoff at a single position player’s impact but Lamb’s responsible for nearly one-third of the Cowboys’ vertical game. He’s the only potential mismatch on the field, especially with Jake Ferguson also trending to miss the contest. Circling the drain may be an understatement. From our Utilization Report:
There’s a compelling case for Washington -10 even with a healthy Dallas WR room. The Texans, who I’d argue aren’t as good as the Commanders, let the Boys hang close for a half, before demolishing them down the stretch. And if not for a quick slant that sliced the secondary for a long TD, it’s over before my kids’ bedtime. Don’t let Cooper Rush’s 354 passing yards fool you too much either. It took a ridiculous 61 dropbacks to get there. 61! For reference, Rush’s -0.18 EPA/dropback would rank 40th this season.
Rookie phenom Jayden Daniels keeps taking heat lately for a drop-off in play that lacks some context. Washington dropped two straight close games against top-tier defenses. Where’s the shame in that? My guess for the lack of accuracy corresponds to the chest injury sustained in Week 7, combined with defenses that send the house (CHI, NYG, PIT, PHI). That’s a tough stretch for anyone.
The thing is, even a reduced threat of Daniels taking off presents a tremendous challenge to the defense’s accounting up front. Washington is incredibly efficient, leading the league in average drive distance, first downs/drive, and points scored/drive. They’re easily a top-10 ground attack in the NFL:
- 148.0 Rush Yards Per Game: 7th
- 4.7 Yards Per Rush: 8th
- 3.26 Yards After Contact Per Rush: T-7th
- 44.3% Rush Success Rate: 4th
- 11 +20-Yard Carries: T-4th
- 19 Rushing TD: 1st
Now flip the script over to the Cowboys’ porous run-stopping unit. Inability to hit RBs in the backfield plays right into the Commanders’ strength of grinding away with clock domination. Like Houston, expect WAS to keep chopping at the tree as Dallas wears down …
- -0.07 Defensive EPA/Rush: Last
- 151.0 Rush Yards Per Game: 31st
- 1.95 Yards Before Contact Per Rush: 30th
- 43.1% Rush Success Rate Allowed: 28th
Again, I like this at -10 with Lamb suiting up or not. That said, I’m not waiting around for the report. Lamb playing is already baked into the price—there’s only way the line’s going to move.
THE BET: WAS -10 (-110) BET365
THE BET: Rachaad White Over 3.5 Receptions (+120) @DK
It’s that time of year. We’re deep in the muck and mire of the NFL season. The weather’s getting cold, coaches are clinging to jobs, and franchise players continue dropping like flies—it’s a war of attrition for everyone involved. While I never intend to question players’ intent or drive, there’s nothing wrong with bettors dogpiling teams in a tailspin. The Giants may as well have projected a hologram of a giant white flag when they benched and then released a healthy $160M quarterback. Sheesh.
Conversely, Tampa’s trying to get back on a playoff track off the bye in a perfect smash spot to do just that. It’s a longshot but the dream definitely ends Sunday with a loss. Sure, the Bucs dropped four straight, but that stretch couldn’t run out any tougher (BAL, ATL, KC, SF). Who would breeze through that?
Regardless of outcome, Baker Mayfield has proven he belongs. Don’t look now but the 2018 No. 1 pick has got a higher EPA/attempt and EPA/dropback than Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and some guy named Patrick Mahomes. Good on him, I’ve always been a sucker for an underdog in a trench coat, anyway. Unfortunately for the Buccos, they lost Chris Godwin amidst a monster breakout. This left a massive void in the underneath aerial attack, where the backfield stepped in.
Since losing Godwin with all those high-percentage short throws, Mayfield adjusted. He’s now leading the NFL in running back target rate (28.2%) at over 10 per game (!)—half of which have gone to White (image below).
Mayfield must be on the lookout. Daboll’s known to send a ton of mixed pressure packs on defense. He loves trying to get to the quarterback. However, for what it’s worth, Mayfield’s been very good against the blitz (+0.17 EPA)—which I’m hoping will translate into quick-release checkdowns. White has cleared this bar in three of his last four, which really makes me love the plus-money price even more. It’s going to close at (-125), write that down.
THE BET: Rachaad White Over 3.5 Receptions (+120) DraftKings
Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Player Projections to compare.
