The weekend is here and there's no better way to welcome it in than with Geoff Ulrich's Week 12 NFL player props and picks:

We’re back for Week 12.

Last week was very profitable if you tailed the five plays AND the underdog cards at the end, with the results as follows. 

Big shout-out to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who cleared his total, the alternate line we used on Underdog, and the TD prop we bet in Week 11 on one single play.

Legend.

I’ll again add a few Underdog Pick’em lineups at the end of the article. If you’re not familiar with Pick’em, make sure you check out our suite of Pick’em Tools, and free tracker where I post plays from Underdog and other sites every week.

Just like usual, you can find all my Week 12 bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s NFL player props …

Top Five NFL Player Props For Week 12

Jayden Daniels Over 41.5 Rushing Yards

  • Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
  • Projection: 46.0

After the two poor rushing outings where he posted 18 and 5 yards rushing in back-to-back starts, we’ve seen Daniels rushing total dip significantly, to where it opened at under 40.0 yards this week.

The lack of yards is concerning, but from a big-picture perspective, it’s important to remember that he was up against two of the premier rush defenses in the league in his last two starts in the Steelers (8th EPA per rush) and Eagles (6th EPA per rush).

This week, he comes in off 10 days of rest and faces the Cowboys, who are dead last in EPA per play vs the rush and have been horrendous at containing QBs, who have even a modicum of rushing ability. 

Last week, they allowed C.J. Stroud to escape for a 20-yard run and in the two weeks prior both Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy posted 56 yards rushing against them. 

Daniels is a far better open-field runner than both of those last two names. He had a 28.5% explosive run play rate in college and already has multiple rushes of over 30 yards on the season. 

I placed a bet on the over in our free NFL bet tracker on Thursday when it was still at 38.5, but even at 41.5, it’s hard not to be bullish on him in this spot—especially with our projection sitting at 46.0. I’d play this up to 42.5 and will also have some exposure to his alternate lines at 50+ and above.

Sam Darnold Over 0.5 INTs

  • Odds: +100 (DraftKings)
  • Projection: 0.9 INTs 

There is probably a good case to be made that you could just play Sam Darnold to throw an interception blindly every week if his implied odds were at or close to -110 (52.3%). Over his 10 starts with the Vikings this season he’s thrown 10 INTs total and has thrown at least one pick in seven of his 10 starts.

That’s a 70% hit rate over a decent sample, a percentage that isn’t reflected at all at his current price.

I won’t dredge up all of his old stats, but if we go back over Darnold’s entire career we’d see that this kind of turnover rate has pretty much been par for the course, regardless of where or when he was starting.

Darnold’s also seen a distinct dropoff in play over the last few weeks, which makes this number even more enticing. He threw five INTs in two weeks (Weeks 9 and 10) against two of the worst pass defenses in the league in Indianapolis and Jacksonville, and while the Vikings managed to win both of those games it’s still concerning that he wasn’t able to navigate easier matchups with less mistakes.

That leads us to this week and a matchup with the Bears who, for all their faults, still have an opportunistic secondary (nine INTs on the season, 10th most in the league). I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that seven of the Bears’ nine INTs have come at home where they have an advantage over QBs who typically play in warmer weather environments or domes.

Regardless, the odds for Darnold to throw just one INT seem far too big to me given both his recent form and the poor matchup.

Devaughn Vele Over 31.5 Receiving Yards  

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 32.0 

The Raiders have some serious injury issues heading into Week 12. 

As of writing, they have the following defensive players on the injury report:

In case you weren’t keeping track, that’s their entire trio of starting cornerbacks, all potentially out (or at less than 100%) for this game. 

Vele has looked great in his past couple of starts and continues to see his usage rise and get talked up by the Denver coaching staff. Last week he played on a season-high 42 snaps and has a 78% route rate average over the last two games.

There are some game script concerns if the Broncos get out to an early lead, but they led the entire game last week and still threw the ball late in the game.

Ultimately, I think the total on Vele is still too low, especially this week given the Raiders' health issues in the secondary. I’d be happy to play this over up to 32.5 as long as the juice wasn’t too big.

C.J. Stroud Over 30.5 Pass Attempts

  • Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
  • Projection: 32.0 passing attempts 

The over on Stroud’s pass attempts isn’t very intuitive at first glance, given that the Texans are 8.5-point favorites this week. However, Houston is a team that likes to throw the ball, regardless of the score. 

They’re 13th in pass rate this season—and that’s with them missing their best WR for half the year—and also trend towards the pass more at home as they have a 59% pass rate in Houston, vs a 55% pass rate when they’re the away side.

For the season, C.J. Stroud has also gone over this 30.5 mark in nine of his 11 starts, including last week in Dallas where he threw the ball 34 times in a game the Texans got a defensive score and faced 55 pass attempts from Cooper Rush.

Will Levis has also played better over his last couple of starts and the Texans secondary is prone to giving up big plays and keeping teams in games. I’m not sure if Levis can do enough to pull off an upset, but I do think he and Calvin Ridley can likely put up enough points to keep things interesting.

Our projections have Stroud sitting around 32.0 attempts, which is 1.5 of his actual total at most books, and as I mentioned last week, I not only like trusting our projections but also agree with them very hardily again in this case. Stroud and Houston may win easily, but I do think he’ll still be dropping back enough to hit this over.

George Kittle Over 45.5 Receiving Yards 

  • Odds: -115 (bet365)
  • Projection: 60.0

I wasn’t planning on betting Kittle overs when the week began but after a couple of days where he practiced without limitation, and declared himself fit to face Green Bay, this does look like a great buy-low spot. 

When he’s been healthy, Kittle has been Brock Purdy’s favorite target this year. Via our Utilization Report, he’s posted a target share of 22% or greater over his last four appearances where he’s started and finished the game healthy.

 

The Packers are also a funnel-to-the-pass sort of defense, as they’re now down to 30th in success rate per dropback.

From a matchup perspective, if Jaire Alexander does play this week it’s far more likely we see him take away Deebo Samuel or Jauan Jennings, leaving Kittle open in the middle of the field against a defense he dropped 84 yards against last playoff on just four catches.

With our projections on him well above his current total, I’m fine betting a healthy Kittle returns with a big game over a not-so-great Packers secondary. 

Week 12 Underdog Pick’em Plays

Quick Note. You can find all my weekly Underdog plays in our FREE Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season.

Keep checking there for more plays as the season wears on.

Underdog Card #1 (5.79x multiplier)

An extension of the Kittle play from up above. 

  • Purdy didn't have a great outing last week but he’s played well all season and there is a great chance he’ll be playing from behind given the Packers' explosiveness on offense.
     
  • Reed is another receiver I’m high on this week given the 49ers issues handling slot receivers.
     

 

Underdog Card #2 (15.2x multiplier) 

If you need more sweetener in your coffee I also built out a bigger version of the above card. 

  • It’s hard to know what Tommy DeVito will do in his first start but certainly, if he has a big game, Malik Nabers will probably be why.
     
  • Against a bottom-three secondary I don’t see any reason not to be bullish on the Higher on these low totals for the two Giants.
     

 

Underdog Card #3 (9.1x multiplier)

  • I love this spot for Calvin Ridley, who I also wrote up in our TD column this week. If he does score that will only force the Texans into more dropbacks and play into our Stroud thesis from above.
     
  • Dell is more of a secondary receiver with Collins back but the Titans do have a thinner secondary and he’s projected for around 6.5 targets this week, and I’m OK taking Tank Dell on a yardage "Higher" (in general) at anything below 50.0 yards.
     

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