This game was circled on many league officials’ calendars in early August as a potential game-of-the-year candidate. Trevor Lawrence vs. Joe Burrow, the two No. 1 draft picks from 2020 and 2021, facing off with both teams likely in a battle for the number one seed. 

It probably had some heads of state more excited than Tesla shareholders when they hear Elon Musk speak about literally anything (love you, Elon! Just saying…). 

Now, the Bengals are in last place in their division, Jake Browning is the starter, and Burrow could (reportedly) have his arm amputated any day. Thanks Charissa! 😂

So, how do we go about this game now? 

Are the Bengals feisty enough to consider betting as double-digit underdogs now that the line has moved drastically towards Jacksonville, or should we pivot elsewhere and look at the total and a trend that is more unstoppable than any immovable object ever was (that’s called foreshadowing friends).

We dive into all that, plus props and a delightful same-game parlay to end Week 13.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars 

  • Spread: Jaguars -10 (-110; BetMGM)
  • Total: 39.5
  • Moneylines: Bengals +375 / Jaguars -500

The Bengals are relatively healthy outside of two significant injuries. One of them is Burrow (who we all knew about already), but the other injury is a big one as well. Starting CB Cam Taylor-Britt (quad/ankle) – arguably their most important player on defense – is set to miss another game this week, putting an already thin secondary in an even tougher spot. 

The Bengals did manage to limit the Steelers' wide receivers to just a few big plays in Week 12, but missing Britt-Taylor means the Bengals will have less edge on defense and less ability to make game-changing plays (Britt-Taylor has 4 INTs in 2023, fourth-most in the league). His absence likely opens up the door for Calvin Ridley this week, but the Jaguars should be focused on the middle of the field – where the Bengals have struggled all season to replace safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates.

Ridley

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley (0) rushes for yards during the second quarter an NFL football matchup Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the Tennessee Titans 34-14. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

The Bengals have had huge issues limiting TEs (third-most fantasy points allowed to the position). Last week, they allowed Pat Freiermuth to be nearly the entirety of the Steelers' offense, as he caught nine passes for 120 yards. That puts the overs on Evan Engram (7.45 targets per game) squarely on the radar.

The Jaguars don’t have a huge injury list either, but there are a couple of important names to note. Top CB Tyson Campbell is questionable, and if he misses another game, it will act as a solid green light to go after some Ja’Marr Chase props – which seem precariously low this week. RB Travis Etienne (chest) is also banged up but expected to play. 

The Jaguars have been a cover machine of late (7-1 ATS over their last eight games), but this line has moved aggressively toward them (up from -8.0 to -10.0 in spots). I’d understand anyone who wanted to back them at -9.5 or better, but the Bengals managed to keep games close (and ugly) in preseason when they were without Burrow and did so again last week. It ultimately has me looking elsewhere when viewing this game.

Best Bet: Under 40.0 (-110; BetMGM)

  • Bet to: 39.5 (-110)

Jacksonville has run up the score on a couple of weaker opponents recently (Titans, Colts). Still, those were divisional games, and it’s worth noting that the Jaguars are 5-1 at hitting unders in non-divisional games. 

The Bengals played their first regular season game without Burrow last week, and the results went as expected: ugly. Cincinnati barely managed to clear 250 total yards and scored 10 points. Despite the poor showing on offense, their complex, bend-but-don’t-break defense under guru Lou Anarumo held the Steelers to 16 points and kept the game close. Jacksonville might have a little more success, but they also don’t have the incentive to run up the score against a non-division opponent.

Then, we have the primetime under trend. This year, the under has a 23-3 record on MNF and SNF. Taking it back even further, the under in the last 35 SNF and MNF regular season games is 32-3 (per The Action Network).

With a bit of wind expected (potential gusts of 10+ mph), it’s almost a no-brainer that we keep riding this money-making trend for one more week.

You can tail the under at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up for a new account below!

Player Props

Trevor Lawrence over 3.5 rush attempts (-115; BetMGM)

If you look at Trevor Lawrence’s rushing usage this year, a couple of things pop out for betting. First, his designed run rate of 8% is about the same as last year, but his scramble rate is up to 7% (vs. 4% last year). Second, Lawrence tends to rush more when the Jaguars win big. 

In the five games where he’s rushed five or more times, the Jaguars won by at least five points in all but one. Lawrence is no Jalen Hurts, but the Jaguars haven’t hesitated to call his name in the red zone, either: His 10 redzone rush attempts are tied for ninth-most among all QBs. 

T Law

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) celebrates the third touchdown for the Jaguars during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla.

When you add the possibility of late-game kneel downs (that count as carries), the over here looks pretty enticing. We have Lawrence projected for over 4.0 carries in our aggregate projections, making this a solid prop to attack for MNF. 

Evan Engram anytime TD (+290; FanDuel)

  • Bet To: +250 

Evan Engram hasn’t scored a TD all season. So naturally, we are going to try and time his first TD of the year this week 🙂. 

In all seriousness, if Engram is ever going to find the endzone this season, it seems likely to happen in this game. As I wrote in the Week 13 TD props article, the Bengals are an A+ matchup for any TE:

“The Bengals lost two starting safeties last year in Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates, and their mid-field coverage has suffered greatly. They grade out as one of the worst coverage units against TEs and have allowed the most yards and fifth-most catches to opposing TEs in 2023. Last week, they allowed Pat Freiermuth to go for a career-high 120 yards on nine receptions. 

At +250 or better, I’m fine with taking a shot in this terrific matchup that Engram can finally get off the mat and stop hanging with the sad and lonely TD-less crowd after Week 13.”

You can tail the Engram TD at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of $5 or more and your team wins!

Ladder Bet: Ja’Marr Chase (DraftKings)

  • 80+ receiving yards (+205) - play to +200
  • 90+ receiving yards (+310) - play to +300
  • 100+ receiving yards (+450) - play to +400

We targeted an elite WR here last week (DJ Moore) going up against a middling secondary, and it worked out extremely well (Moore went for 114 yards and cashed two legs of the ladder). This week, I’m sticking with the same formula.

Chase’s props have been drastically reduced with Browning under center, but as he proved last week in the Bengals dull 16-10 loss, Chase is still capable of breaking off some plays (4-81) even on limited targeting from a limited QB.

Chase

Nov 16, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) catches a pass in the end zone for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports

Chase led all Bengals receivers in targets last week, and it seems likely that he’ll see at least a bit more work in this matchup (he’s projected for 7.5 targets on Fantasy Life). The Jaguars are a pretty extreme pass funnel defense as they allow just 4.0 yards per carry (ninth-best in the league) but have allowed 8.6 yards per attempt over their last three games (second-worst). 

Ultimately, these odds are too good not to take a shot. Browning may not be Burrow, but if he sees a lot of preventive defense late, Chase may get enough open space to rack up the yardage needed to hit all the rungs on this very achievable ladder bet.

You can tail the ladder at DraftKings, where you can sign up below to get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you place your first bet of at least $5!

Same Game Parlay (+800; BetMGM)

  • Under 39.5 points
  • Chase 60+ receiving yards
  • Lawrence 15+ rushing yards 

I kept this one simple and like the payout we get by combining just the three plays. Taking the under means we’re not expecting a lot of scoring, but taking Chase to have over 60+ yards in this spot – even with the underplay – seems completely fine. He managed 84 yards last week despite Cincinnati only scoring 10 points. Chase is ultimately in a place where he’ll likely perform well from a yardage perspective – and potentially be OK in PPR leagues for fantasy – but will be lucky to find the endzone against a solid Jacksonville defense. 

I mentioned Lawrence’s carry prop above, and for the same-game parlay, we have to focus on yards instead of carries. By going up to 15+ yards (something Lawrence has managed in seven out of 11 games this year), we again get a slightly boosted payout. The Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing QBs this year, so if he does rush 4+ times, he’s likely going to hit the 15-yard mark:

SGP

If you wanted a bigger payout, you could add the Engram anytime TD as well, which would boost this up to +3500. Obviously, player TDs and under 39.5 points are negatively correlated, but given how much trouble I expect the Bengals to have on offense, we could still see Jacksonville score three+ TDs in an under.

Whichever path you choose, good luck with your bets!

SEC