We’re back for Week 13.

We had our third winning week in a row with the props, going 4-1 on the top five plays.

That was despite getting a terrible line on George Kittle’s receiving yards after Brock Purdy got ruled out late in the week.  

The top five plays are now 10-5 since Week 10. Not too bad. 

I’ll again be adding in a few Underdog Pick’em lineups at the end of the article. If you’re not familiar with Pick’em, make sure you check out our suite of Pick’em Tools, and free tracker where I post plays from Underdog and other sites every week. 

Just like usual, you can find all my Week 13 bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props …

Taysom Hill Over 24.5 receiving yards  

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 36.0 

Hill’s production has skyrocketed since the coaching change in New Orleans. In the Saints Week 11 matchup vs the Browns, he saw a career-high 10 targets, bringing in eight catches for 50 yards. 

While most of his big plays came via the ground vs the Browns, it’s worth noting that Hill had been popping some bigger plays as a receiver in the games before that, going for 41 yards on two receptions in Week 9 vs the Panthers and 36 yards on just two catches in Week 10 vs the Falcons. 

He also had this monster 88-yard screenplay called back for a penalty in the game against Atlanta. 

Whatever the case, with the Saints down their top two WRs, there is little reason for them not to keep finding ways to get Hill touches, something that interim HC Darren Rizzi alluded to this week. 

Add in the fact that the Saints take on the Rams this week, a defense with suspect linebackers that has allowed the 10th most yards to opposing TEs, and it’s not hard to see Hill posting a decent receiving line once again. 

We have Hill projected for 36.0 yards this week and with the current spread at 2.5 and projecting for a close competitive game, I’d feel good playing this up to 26.5.

Jayden Daniels Over 37.5 rushing yards 

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 43.0

The over on Daniels’ rushing prop was on the card last week and he promptly smashed it for us pretty early in the game, ultimately ending with 74 rush yards on 7.0 attempts. 

The performance was significant, not just for the fact the over hit (although that was nice) but that Daniels also saw his designed run rate take a tick up—with his 22% designed run rate being his highest since Week 3, via our Utilization Report.

 

With Austin Ekeler (concussion) looking doubtful and Brian Robinson questionable with an ankle injury that forced him out of last week’s game, it wouldn’t be overly shocking to see Washington continue to rely on Daniels’ legs to move the ball.

The Titans aren’t an easy matchup on paper as they rank 4th in success rate vs the run, however, if they do have an Achilles heel it’s been guarding against rushing QBs.

Malik Willis roasted them for 73 yards on just 6 carries back in Week 3, while Drake Maye came close to breaking the 100-yard barrier vs them in Week 9, posting 95 yards on just 8 carries.

As I mentioned last week, Daniels is the cream of the crop in terms of explosiveness at his position. He had a 28.5% explosive run play rate in college and already has multiple rushes of over 30 yards on the season. 

With his total for Week 13 sitting 4.0-5.0 yards lower than it was last week, it’s a bet I’d feel fine playing again up to 39.5. 

Brian Thomas Over 56.5 receiving yards

  • Odds: -115 (DraftKings)
  • Projection: 66.0

There is a little uncertainty with who will start at QB for Jacksonville as Trevor Lawrence hasn’t officially been ruled in yet—despite several indications that he is likely to start. 

Still, I’m OK with a little uncertainty in this spot with Thomas, who despite the Jaguars' struggles, has proven himself to be one of the premier young receivers in the game.

Entering Week 13, Thomas has averaged 16.4 yards per catch (10th best in the league) and gone for 60+ yards in six of his 11 career starts now, despite playing through injury in multiple games. 

Five of those six aforementioned games came with Lawrence under center, however, even if Lawrence sits, this is still a great spot for Thomas, who will be up against a Houston secondary that loves to give up big plays. On the season, the Texans have now given up the eighth-most yards to opposing WRs, and opposing QBs have now averaged 7.2 yards per attempt against them over their last three starts, which is the 10th-worst mark in the league over that stretch. 

Earlier in the year, in Week 4, Thomas also posted one of his best games of the season against the Texans, going for 6 receptions, 86 yards, and a TD on 9 targets. 

Even with some uncertainty at QB, Thomas is projected for 66 receiving yards on Fantasy Life this week so being bullish in this spot doesn’t like a reach at all. I expect this prop may also rise if Lawrence does get ruled in as well, and would feel fine playing into the 62.5 range if it does.

Jaylen Warren Over 58.5 rush/rec yards

  • Odds: -115 (bet365)
  • Projection: 60.0 

Warren has always been the far more efficient of the two Pittsburgh backs and since he’s recovered from an early season hamstring injury the gap between Warren and Najee Harris is starting to widen again. Over their last two games, Warren has averaged 4.8 yards per carry to Harris’ 3.05, and that discrepancy in production has finally led Steelers OC Arthur Smith to increase his usage.

Warren out-snapped Harris 39-27 in their loss to the Browns and over their last three games the 26-year-old has only played nine fewer snaps than Harris (100 Warren to 109 Harris).

The matchup this week also calls for both Steelers RBs to be heavily involved. The Bengals continue to be terrible at tackling in the open field and enter this game 31st in success rate vs the run.

While Warren’s rushing props have shot up a touch, he also remains the better receiving back, having caught multiple passes now in six straight games. Rather than attempt to guess how or when Smith will use him this week, I view the rushing/receiving props as a good alternative to take out some of the guesswork.

He’s now gone for 59 or more rushing and receiving yards in six straight contests and with such a solid matchup, I’m happy to play this at anything under 60.0 yards.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 11.5 receiving yards

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 15 rec yards 

Game flow limited Stevenson to just 29 snaps last week, but we should get a bounce back to normal levels of workload for the 26-year-old this week–who had been averaging 50+ snaps per game, before the blowout loss to Miami

Overall, it’s a good time to be bullish on Stevenson as the Colts present a great matchup for any lead RB. They’ve allowed the 3rd most rushing yards and have also been terrible at covering RBs out of the backfield, ceding the seventh-most receiving yards to the position. 

The Patriots are projected as 3.0 underdogs and with how terrible their defense has been at stopping opposing defenses (23.5 ppg against), Stevenson should be in a great spot to grab some big gains as a receiver. 

Before the Miami game, he’d converted on 13 straight targets from Drake Maye and has gone over this 11.5 receiving mark in three of his last four starts—a stretch that includes a 5 rec/38-yard receiving line against Tennessee. 

We have him projected at 15.0 receiving yards for the week on Fantasy Life, and if this total does rise a little, I’d also be OK at playing the over on his 2.5 reception mark, as long as the juice didn’t rise above -120.  

Week 13 Underdog Pick’em Plays

Quick Note. You can find all my weekly Underdog plays in our FREE Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season.

Keep checking there for more plays as the season wears on.

Underdog Card 1 (4-way, 11.1x multiplier)

Two mini-game stacks based on the Daniels and Stevenson props from above

  • Jonathan Taylor is in a great spot as the Patriots defense has been regressing and has allowed 13 TDs to opposing RBs already.
     
  • If he scores, the game script will be better for Stevenson to find some receptions.
     
  • The same goes for Pollard/Daniels. The Commanders rush defense has been extremely poor of late and if Pollard scores, there is a better chance for more Daniels dropbacks/runs later in the game.

 

Underdog Card #2 (5-way, 15.3x multiplier) 

A three-way correlated game stack from Minnesota plus a mini-stack based on the Taysom Hill prop from above in New Orleans. 

  • The Saints have allowed an atrocious number of pass yards the last few weeks and have no answer for Nucau who legitimately may push for the most receiving yards of the week at WR.
     
  • Minnesota also acts as a funnel to the pass defense with weaker corners, making this a good spot for Harrison and Murray to break out.
     
  • The Cardinals also have no standout corner to counteract Jefferson who at under 80 yards looks like a solid value on the higher.