Week 15 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Chargers @ Raiders.
Another week, another glorious Thursday Night Football contest. This week’s edition features the Chargers traveling to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders in a battle between 5-8 AFC West squads.
This matchup does feature some star power, but there’s also uncertainty at the quarterback position on each side. Easton Stick will make his first career start for the Chargers, will the Raiders are reportedly mulling a quarterback change as well. After getting shutout in a 3-0 loss vs. the Vikings on Sunday, it would not be all that surprising if Aidan O’Connell was ultimately benched.
Who has the edge in this contest? Let’s dive into my favorite bets for Thursday Night Football.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Raiders -3.0 (-105; BetMGM)
- Total: 34.0
- Moneylines: Chargers +125/Raiders -150
It’s time to get to know Easton Stick. He sounds like a lacrosse player, but he’s going to operate as the Chargers’ starting quarterback with Justin Herbert sidelined. Herbert suffered a fractured finger in his last contest, and with the team out of playoff contention, his season is officially over.
Stick was a fifth-round draft pick back in 2019, and he’s spent his entire career in the Chargers organization. He’s a small school prospect out of North Dakota State, but he brings some intriguing athleticism to the table. He blazed a 4.62 40-yard dash at the combine – putting him in the 86th percentile for the QB position – and the rest of his athletic measurables are also well above average.
We’ve seen Stick put his athleticism on display during the preseason. He had 63 rushing yards and two touchdowns during Week 2 of the 2023 preseason, so expect his legs to be a big part of the equation on Thursday.
Dec 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Easton Stick (2) throws against the Denver Broncos during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Unfortunately, what we’ve seen from Stick’s arm is much less impressive. He averaged just 5.21 yards per attempt during the preseason with one touchdown pass and two interceptions. He was better in relief of Herbert last week – he racked up 7.46 adjusted yards per attempt – but the Chargers didn’t get on the scoreboard until the fourth quarter.
Ultimately, the Chargers have struggled all season despite getting above-average quarterback play from Herbert. Now that Herbert is out of the picture, it’s hard to imagine things not getting significantly worse. Matthew Freedman has the downgrade from Herbert to Stick as worth 6.1 points towards the spread, the fourth-largest possible downgrade in the NFL currently. Only Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen represent a bigger potential downgrade to their backups.
Meanwhile, the Raiders QB situation is basically the NFL equivalent of the Spiderman-pointing meme. O’Connell has averaged 5.4 adjusted yards per attempt this season, while Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged 5.6. Garoppolo probably represents a slight upgrade, but the difference is pretty negligible overall.
The injury report is also going to be extremely important to monitor. Maxx Crosby, Josh Jacobs, Keenan Allen, and Kolton Miller were all estimated as DNPs on Monday and Tuesday, so their statuses for Wednesday’s practice will be vital. Crosby and Miller are the Raiders' two best linemen – one offensive, one defensive – while Jacobs and Allen are two of the top remaining offensive weapons between these squads. Any of those players being ruled in or out could have a slight impact on the point spread.
Best Bet: Under 34.0 (-110; BetMGM)
My goodness, how things have changed. When this number was first released in the offseason, it was set at 47.5 points. That means the current figure has decreased by nearly two full touchdowns!
Still, I think the under is clearly the best option in this contest. The Chargers are coming off a 24-7 loss in their last contest, while the Raiders’ game saw just three total points. Overall, the under is now 4-1 in Raiders’ games with Antonio Pierce as head coach.
Since Pierce took over in Week 9, the Raiders defense ranks fourth in EPA/play. The Chargers offense is 26th in EPA/play over that time frame, so I’m not sure how that can realistically survive without Herbert. They have zero run game to speak of, so Stick is going to have his hands full trying to put points on the board.
Taking the under on a low total is always a scary proposition. We had a similar situation with the Patriots and Steelers last week, and that game basically went over in the first half. All it takes is a couple of fluky offensive drives to push the scoring over this figure.
Still, low-total games have provided value in general this season. Closing totals of 38 or lower have gone 16-8-1 to the under this season, and totals of 35.0 or lower are 3-2.
Of course, there’s also the primetime narrative to consider. Primetime unders haven’t been nearly as dominant of late as they were to start the year, but they’re still 30-15 for the season. Dating back to 2019, they’re 155-99-3, good for a +17.1% ROI.
With two offenses that are dealing with major question marks, I’m not going to overthink this one.
You can tail the under at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below with promo code FANTASYLIFE!
Player Props
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.
There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
Austin Ekeler Under 3.5 receptions (+120; DraftKings)
- Bet To: Under 3.5 (+100)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 2.8
The prop market is admittedly not that robust at the moment. We’re still waiting on who the Raiders’ QB is going to be, and we’re also waiting on news for Jacobs and Allen. All of that is going to have an impact on the prop market, so the books are being cautious with their offerings at the moment.
However, the under on 3.5 receptions for Ekeler is something worth jumping on. Ekeler is one of the best receiving backs in football, but it remains to be seen how much usage he’ll command as a receiver with Stick. Stick is a much more aggressive runner than Herbert, so instead of dumping the ball off to his running back, it’s possible he just uses his legs.
Ekeler did catch three passes from Stick last week, but they all came on one drive when the team was already down by 17 points. The Broncos were playing essentially a prevent defense at that point, so they didn’t mind surrendering some small catches underneath to Ekeler.
Unless you think the Raiders are going to turn this game into a blowout, this number seems a bit too high. We currently have Ekeler projected for just 2.8 receptions, so getting the under at +120 feels like a steal.
You can tail the value on DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!
Easton Stick Anytime Touchdown (+900, Caesars)
How should you attack the touchdown market in a game with such a small total? Personally, I don’t think it’d be the worst idea to just forgo these bets entirely in games like this.
That said, touchdown bets are definitely fun, and Geoff Ulrich highlights Easton Stick as a worthy touchdown scorer in this contest:
The Chargers only have a 15.5-point implied team total this week, so if we’re targeting their side, we want some solid value/odds and a player who has a nose for finding the end zone. Surprisingly enough, we may have both in Easton Stick.
Stick isn’t a well-known entity, as he’s yet to make a start in five NFL seasons (all with the Chargers) but he is an excellent runner – and was, even back in his college days.
While at North Dakota State he rushed over 110 times in EACH of his last three seasons – and accumulated 41 career rushing TDs in 54 collegiate games. In his 12 preseason appearances with the Chargers (not all full games – many of them he played only a half or less) he scored 5 rushing TDs.
To sum things up, there is a great shot that if the Chargers get inside the 5-15 yard line this week – and Stick is forced into dropping back – the former fifth-round pick is taking off. And if he finds a little space, history says he’s not sliding feet first but is far more likely to plow his way into the endzone and cash out these big anytime odds.
You can tail the longshot at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up for your new account below!
Ladder Bet
If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.
For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.
This week, I’m going to veer into the uncertainty at QB with the Raiders. If they do go back to Garoppolo, that could lead to some big things for Davante Adams. Adams has still seen a healthy workload with O’Connell under center, but his biggest game of the season by a wide margin came with Garoppolo at QB. He racked up 20 targets, 13 catches, and 172 yards while playing with Garoppolo in Week 3.
Nov 12, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) signals a first down against the New York Jets during the second quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports
Is that what we should expect from Adams if Garoppolo gets the nod vs. the Chargers? Of course not, but I do think his ceiling becomes slightly higher.
Davante’s market has come way down since the start of the season. You can grab 80+ yards at +134, 100+ yards at +270, and 125+ yards at +580 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Adams has only one 100-yard game all season, but he routinely crossed that threshold in his sleep in previous years. Asking him to turn back the clock for one week in a good matchup doesn’t seem that far fetched.
Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can Stick hold his own as the Chargers QB, or will the Raiders take care of business at home? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.
I’m ultimately going to keep this one short and sweet. With the offerings currently limited in the prop market, I’m going with just three legs in this week’s SGP: Under 34.0, Raiders -2.5, and Adams 80+ receiving yards.
I’ve covered Adams and the total pretty extensively, and I do think the Raiders are the correct side here. They’ve received most of the sharp money this week, and buying them down to -2.5 means we cover if they win by a field goal.
Those three legs result in +670 potential payout on FanDuel:
You can tail the SGP on FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of $5 or more on a team and the bet wins!
Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!
