In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
‘Twas the last week of December, ‘fore the playoffs begin,
Chock full of games where a win gets you in.
Four months of hard work are a rhyme for the reason,
To put a big bow on the NFL season.
Who’s the day’s hero to toe-tap a catch?
Or make the big play on a score down the stretch?
Sprinting down sidelines, coaches are screamin’ ...
Dancing in end zones, bright smiles a-beamin’
Aura is up, fans in stands, they are rocking
For early postseason games in our Week 16 stocking!
(I gotta stop watching so many Christmas specials …)
Absent a marquee matchup today, my professional focus (or what’s left of it) lies almost solely on the NFC West. Four teams all sit between six and eight wins with criss-crossing head-to-head matchups beginning next weekend. How close is it? The current division-leading Rams possess just a 54% chance of making the dance entering today. If they stumble against the newly ascendant Jets today (speaking of fantasy football streamers …), we could witness a three-way tie with two to go. Extra playoff games? Yes, please …
Who will put one foot in front of the other and march to the postseason?
You can use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on these game totals, spreads, and moneylines, and make sure to check out our NFL Odds Pages for the best prices on every game on the slate!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange: Conner Air
- No Cap: Return Of The Mac
- Sharp Hunter: Lions Set To Roar
The Best Sweat in Fantasy Football Just Got Sweatier.
Playoff Guillotine League contests are now LIVE.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🤝 When they score, you score. Anytime TD bets for Week 16.
🤑 The top stack and plays for today’s NFL DFS slate. The Rams are primed to pop.
🤮 SMU bettors, look away. What a horrific runout.
5️⃣ The top five props of Week 16 … and Underdog Pick’ems, too.
🚨 ICYMI — another round of 2025 NFL mock draft updates.
🤭 Psst … one more reminder — Guillotine Leagues are live for the playoffs.
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Conner Air
THE BET: James Conner O105.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-115; bet365)
Prepare yourself—famous last words incoming. James Conner leaves the desert for Carolina in the absolute smash spot of the season. As I mentioned earlier, Arizona’s on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in, playing with their backs against the wall. It’s all hands on deck and the Cardinals may be down to their last man standing in the backfield. Conner already dominated touch share, garnering just under 69% of all RB opportunities. Now, both Emari Demercado and Trey Benson, who accounted for 93% of the remaining ARI touches, find themselves bitten by the injury bug. Even fourth-stringer Deejay Dallas logged a DNP with an illness. The utilization case seems air-tight, independent of game script.
And the matchup’s a pure chef kiss internet meme. There’s no one you’d rather run against than this Panthers unit. Not only do they come in as perennial underdogs, they couldn’t stop traffic with an oncoming parade.
Not sure I remember seeing a month-long defensive sample set look this bad, ever.
- -0.13 EPA/Rush: Last
- 48% Rushing Success Allowed: 31st
- 205.3 Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: Last (Next is 165-plus, by the way)
- 6.0 Yards Per Carry: Last
- 3.93 Yards After Contact Per Rush: 31st
- 5 20-plus-yard Carries: Last
- 12.5% Explosive Rush Rate: 31st
Considering it’s just a 4.5-point spread, I’m betting total scrimmage yards. This allows us to lean into Conner’s dual-threat ability in case the game script goes sideways. He’s especially competent in the passing game for an RB, making at least four grabs in four of his last five games.
Getting over 106 yards shouldn’t present too much of a challenge regardless of how the contest plays out. Arizona gets way ahead? Conner should be the late-game hammer. Cardinals fall behind? Welcome to Checkdown City.
COMPARE TO OUR PLAYER PROJECTIONS
No Cap🏈🧢—Return Of The Mac
THE BET: Mac Jones O206.5 Passing Yards (-115; FanDuel)
A Mac Jones bet? I know, I know—late-season NFL prop betting makes for strange bedfellows …
The Jaguars’ season was over even before Trevor Lawrence went down. That said, he’d hardly been lighting the world on fire and front offices like to know what they have under center. A 15th-overall pick just three years ago, could Mac Jones be next in the crop of late bloomers like Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, or Sam Darnold?
Sure, Jones struggled in his first two appearances versus DET and MIN. What should we have expected with no prior first-team reps against solid opposition? No surprises here. And I think those initial flops may be driving the market a bit.
Since the bye, Mac’s played better across the board, from accuracy to target depth and everything in between. The interceptions continue to ding the rating stats but we only need 207 yards—hardly a monumental performance. The bottom line is, the progression can’t be unseen once charted (image below).
After a decent start, Vegas started struggling in the secondary midway through the year, allowing 250-plus passing yards in seven straight—until they ran into Kirk Cousins who summarily got benched immediately after. The injuries continue piling up, most recently to superstar DL Maxx Crosby, who’s on the IR after ankle surgery.
Without their main disruptor and unquestioned captain on defense, Mac Jones should clear this bar easily—something he’s done in all three games since the bye week.
More Player Prop Edges For Week 16
Sharp Hunter: Lions Set To Roar
The 2024 Christmas Week Footballpalooza rolls on with 11 games Sunday in the NFL.
Injuries all over the place, motivation questions for teams out of the playoff hunt—There is a lot to keep track of.
One constant? Sharp Hunter—where we’re tracking thousands of sharp bets every day. Not just in the NFL—but CFB, CBB, and the NBA.
One game our sharps are focused on Sunday is the Lions in Chicago to face the Bears. The Lions are 6.5-point favorites on the road against their divisional rival in a game with a total of 48.
We’re showing a Three-Bag Sharp Score (💰💰💰) on the Lions -6.5.
I’ll be betting with the sharps here and laying the points with the favorite.
The Lions are very good, that’s obvious. They can win out and be the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
But they’re also banged up—David Montgomery is OUT Sunday. And the Lions have lost multiple players for the season on the defensive end. And yes, they played a big game against the Bills last week and got gashed by likely MVP Josh Allen. I guess you might call for am emotional letdown this week.
I don’t care about any of that.
This is the No. 2 DVOA-ranked team (DET) against the No. 25 DVOA-ranked team (CHI). The Lions have been a MUCH better team this season. Much. Better.
As far as the Montgomery injury goes, who’s to say that more Jahmyr Gibbs is a bad thing for the Lions? Maybe the offense is more explosive with more Gibbs.
The Bears’ defense is bad. They’ve allowed both the most points and yards in the NFL over the last four weeks. Since Week 10 they’re 30th in EPA/play on the defensive end. Jared Goff and Co. should cook against the Chicago defense.
The Lions are 15-6-1 ATS against the NFC North with Goff at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Bears are 2-14 SU against the division the last two seasons.
With the No. 1 seed still up for grabs, the Lions will be plenty motivated to win this game.
The public loves Detroit here—they’re getting almost 90% of the money as of Saturday night. Usually, the sharps want to fade all that public money.
Instead, the sharps at Sharp Hunter are locked in on Detroit -6.5.
The public. The sharps. And your humble author. We’re all betting Detroit on Sunday.
