Matt LaMarca reveals the early the NFL betting odds for Week 16.

One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.

So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.

With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 16 and look for some opportunities to find value.

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

  • Pick: Bills -13.0
  • Current Line: -110; DraftKings
  • Bet To: -13.5 (-115)

I almost never bet favorites this big, but this line just feels too low. The Patriots just got absolutely waxed by the Cardinals in Arizona, while the Bills are playing like one of the best teams in football. They just went into Detroit and hammered the Lions, a team that entered that contest at a near-perfect 12-1.

Is there some letdown potential with the Bills in this spot? Possibly. Large divisional favorites have historically been poor investments. Divisional favorites of at least 10 points have covered at less than a 45% clip since 2005, going 125-149-6 ATS. Allen is personally just 2-3-1 ATS in this split.

Still, how in the world are the Patriots going to stop this offense? Allen led the team to 42 points in a loss vs. the Rams in Week 14, and he followed that up with another monster total of 48 points vs. the Lions. The Patriots are merely 29th in the league in defensive EPA, and they’re 31st against the pass.

The public is going to be all over Buffalo in this spot, especially with Josh Allen playing at an MVP level, so the best time to get in on them is early. I could see this line closing at -14.0 or higher, so there’s some value in -13.0 on DraftKings. This line is already up to -13.5 on FanDuel, so I’m not hesitating here.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

  • Pick: Giants +10.5
  • Current Line: -120; FanDuel
  • Bet To: +10.0 (-110)

Let’s go from one end of the spectrum to the other. No team is rated lower in my power ratings currently than the Giants, and they’re dealing with more injuries than I can even keep track of at this point. They might be down to their fourth-string quarterback in Week 16, and they’ve dealt with multiple key absences on their offensive line and defense.

That all sounds terrible, but do the Falcons deserve to be favored by double figures against anyone? They’ve lost four straight heading into Monday Night Football vs. the Raiders, and they have the point differential of a 5-8 team. If not for the fact that this team played in the NFC South, their season would be nearing its conclusion.

Not only that, the Falcons are going to have to play with one day less rest than usual, and they’re going to have to deal with a cross-country flight after playing in Las Vegas. That’s not a huge deal in the modern NFL, but it’s still less than ideal.

The Giants’ quarterback situation could also work out in our favor. Drew Lock was available as the emergency quarterback vs. the Ravens, so it’s possible he will return to the lineup vs. Atlanta if Tommy DeVito is unable to go. Lock hasn’t been inspiring as the Giants’ quarterback, but I still think he’s better than DeVito and Tim Boyle.

This line is on the other side of 10 at most locations, with DraftKings listing the Giants at +9.5. If the Falcons lay an egg vs. the Raiders—which is entirely possible—this number could get even lower. There’s also a chance that they switch to Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, so there are multiple ways we can grab some CLV with New York in this spot.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Pick: Texans -2.5
  • Current Line: -110; FanDuel
  • Bet To: -2.5 (-120)

If you didn’t see any of Sunday’s action, you’d be pretty surprised to see the Texans favored on the road in Kansas City. You’d assume that something had to have happened to Patrick Mahomes, and you’d be 100% right. He suffered an ankle injury vs. the Browns, which caused him to exit the contest early.

The early prognosis on Mahomes is promising. Andy Reid told reporters that the ankle isn’t broken and that Mahomes could have re-entered the game if he had to.

Still, there’s a difference between re-entering a game and starting a new one on short rest. They’ll play the Texans on Saturday, giving Mahomes one fewer day than usual to heal up before the contest. With the Chiefs currently sitting at 12-1 and well clear of the rest of the AFC in the standings, there’s absolutely no need to push him in this spot. They’ll also play on Wednesday the following week, so sitting him out vs. the Texans makes the most sense.

The Chiefs have been struggling to win games even with Mahomes at quarterback this season. They’ve taken a step back defensively, and they’ve needed their all-world quarterback to pull out a host of games late. What happens when they don’t have that luxury? We might be about to find out.

This line has been absolutely hammered since opening at Texans -1.5, moving to -2.5 in less than an hour. I’m going to grab the Texans at that number, and hopefully, there will still be a reasonably priced -2.5 when you’re reading this. There’s obviously still a chance that Mahomes will play, but that’s a risk that I’m willing to take.