We’re back for Week 16. 

We took a small hit last week, going 2-3 with a couple of props just missing. Even with the small losing week, the top five plays are now 18-12 since Week 10. Not too bad. 

The good news is that we also hit on an Underdog lineup with a nice 5.6x multiplier! 

 

Remember, on top of having a bet tracker, we also have a free Pick’Em tracker where I post plays from Underdog and other sites every week. 

For a full recap of how the individual NFL player props, see the bottom of this piece (or click here).

I’ll again be adding in a few Underdog Pick’em lineups at the end of the article.

Just like usual, you can find all my Week 16 bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props …

NFL Player Props For Week 16

Cooper Kupp Over 55.5 receiving yards 

  • Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
  • Projection: 60.0 

Kupp’s prop total in Week 14? – 64.5 yards.

Kupp’s prop total in Week 14? – 62.5 yards.

This week? He’s as low as 55.5 yards.

We’re talking about a nearly 10-yard drop for a player who has posted 60+ yards now in five of his last seven games – all games I might add that included him playing alongside a healthy Puka Nacua. 

Kupp got bottled up (completely) last week by the 49ers, but they had a brilliant game plan and also have one of the top slot corners in the league in Demmodore Lenoir. 

The Jets? 

They have an interim head coach and one of the worst coverage NBs in the league in Michael Carter II, who currently sits 187th/216 in coverage grade on PFF. Carter is also questionable so the Jets could be playing someone out of position against Kupp, which is also a great scenario for anyone taking his over. 

Add in the fact New York just allowed the Jaguars' two primary slot receivers Brenton Strange and Devin Duvernay to go for a combined 14 receptions (16 targets) and 115 yards and Kupp looks to be in a great spot to bounceback this Sunday. 

Kyler Murray Under 31.5 Pass Attempts

  • Odds: -115 (bet365)
  • Projection: 29.5

I admit it got pretty tight with Murray’s prop last week. However, the Cardinal’s QB did cash the under on 30.5 pass attempts vs the Patriots (thanks to a little help from Clayton Tune) and I’m not against going back to the same play with his total now a notch higher. 

The Panthers and Cardinals will be playing outdoors in Raleigh this week, but the weather will be unseasonably cool with temperatures in the 35F range. I don’t think that’s a huge issue or reason to think the Cardinals will avoid passing the ball, but a warm-weather dome team won’t be seeing the cold weather as a plus either.

They’ll also likely be looking at it as an excuse to run the ball more frequently with both heart and soul RB James Conner and exciting rookie Trey Benson—both of whom should be licking their chops for this matchup. 

The Panthers are dead last in success rate vs the rush and last week allowed the Cowboys to run the ball at will with their lead back Rico Dowdle, who racked up a career-high 149 yards on a career-high 25 carries. 

Teams vs the Panthers haven’t had issues figuring out that running it is a winning strategy either as the last three teams they’ve faced have averaged just 28.0 pass attempts. 

We have Murray projected at 29.5 this week so even if these odds move down a bit, I’d still consider playing the under on the current total down to -125. 

Tank Bigsby Over 44.5 Rushing Yards

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 45.0 

I wrote up Bigsby in my Anytime TD article this week and also like betting the over on his rushing prop which is sitting well under 50 yards. 

Here’s some of what I wrote in that article.

“Bigsby hasn’t posted any big games recently, but the second-year back is healthy again and firmly entrenched in a fairly equal split with Travis Etienne for Jacksonville. 

Normally, we’d want to avoid this Jaguars offense at all costs but the Raiders are on the schedule and they remain a fantastic matchup for opposing RBs. Their defense allows 4.8 yards per carry and still ranks below average in EPA rush on the season. 

Despite some slower games lately, Bigsby remains one of the best early down rushers in the league. He leads the league in yards after contact, per rush and is also one of the best at avoiding tackles.

While Bigsby only played on 22% of the snaps last week, he still reeled off 11 carries in a game the Jaguars were trailing in for much of the second half. The week prior, in a game the Jaguars actually won, he saw 18 carries and scored his first rushing TD since Week 7. 

With the Raiders offense incapable of scoring or sustaining drives, the game script this week has a far better chance of favoring more early down rushes from Bigsby and matching that 18-carry total he posted against the Titans.”

I’ll likely be laddering Bigsby through some bigger numbers but would play his current total as a straight over play up to 45.5 (-110). 

I think the Jaguars will give him plenty of chances to get going this week against the Raiders' weaker rush defense and the results have a shot of being spectacular. 

Kyren Williams Under 20.5 rush attempts 

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 19.0

I’m going to throw caution to the wind and double dip in the Rams prop markets this week and try for a 2-for-1 special. 

RB Kyren Williams is coming off back-to-back games where he toted the rock 29 times for the Rams, both games the Rams ended up winning. The usage has been disturbingly good of late but his totals have also taken a screaming move up this week as a result. 

The Jets may also not be a great opponent for the Rams to feature Williams. They’re still a defense with a lot of talent who have been solid against the run of late, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry against over their last three games (fifth-best in the league over that span). Overall, the Jets have only allowed one RB to rush more than 20 times against them over their last four games and that was Jonathan Taylor, who only managed 57 yards on the ground that day. 

Add in the fact that the Rams have a useful tandem back in Blake Corum and have to be somewhat mindful of limiting Williams’ usage and I think there is a chance we see a little normalization this week and Williams go under his current number. 

Jalen Hurts Over 191.5 passing yards

  • Odds: -113 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: 208.0

I went back and forth on a few Eagles props for my final pick but settled with what seemed like the most logical choice in an over on Jalen Hurts’ passing total.

The Eagles QB is coming off one of his most efficient games of the season with him throwing for 9.06 yards per attempt, completing 78% of his passes, and landing two passing TDs in the Eagles' demolition of the Steelers.

It was an impressive performance for Hurts, who wasn’t being asked to drop back as much as he has been in the past, which has led to some speculation of late about the Eagles QB.

This week, Hurts has (on paper) an easier matchup with the Commanders, who rank 17th in yards per attempt and 20th in EPA per dropback. The secondary for Washington has improved immensely since a slow start to the season but they also got beat for several big plays by Spencer Rattler of all people late with the game on the line last week and allowed Hurts to throw for around 8.0 yards per attempt in the first meeting with the Eagles in Week 11.

I considered overs on Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (who looks fully healthy again) and TE Grant Calcaterra but decided the safer option was just to play the guy throwing those two the ball.

With Hurts’ aggregate projection set at 208.0 yards on Fantasy Life, the edge on his over looks like a solid play as high as 195.5.

Week 16 Underdog Pick’em Plays

Quick Note. You can find all my weekly Underdog plays in our FREE Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season. 

Keep checking there for more plays as the season wears on. 

Underdog Card 1 (3-way, 16.6x multiplier)

A combination of a couple of spots from above. 

  • The Jalen Hurts higher boosted to 199.5 yards + DeVonta Smith boosted to 59.5 receiving yards
  • Smith had a 38% target share last week and has been over a 25% share the last three games
  • Combined with Jayden Daniels higher rush yards as a comeback play
  • Daniels’ designed rush rate has been 18% and 15% the last two games and he’s been scrambling a bit more, suggesting he’s over his health issue from mid-season
  • Kupp and Williams combined higher low plays from the props above
  • You could get more aggressive and boost Kupp in this spot but the regular lines finished this 5-way off at 16.6

 

Underdog Card #2 (5-way, 42.2x multiplier) 

This is an alternate line 5-way on five players that I think have a great shot at outperforming. 

  • Stevenson should get plenty of run against a Bills defense that is 24th in yards per attempt and has some injury issues on the D-Line
  • Jennings is playing a Miami secondary that has struggled of late and the 49ers won’t have their lead back Isaac Guerendo
  • Malik Nabers is taking on one of the weakest secondaries in Atlanta
  • Kyle Pitts is getting a QB upgrade and is capable of blasting higher on this low line on one play
  • Tank Bigsby has been getting more run of late and is in a great matchup

 

Week 15 recap

For a full suite of the best value on player props for Week 16, check out our player prop comparison tool below!

Week 16 Props