We’re back for Week 17. 

Last week’s results are at the bottom of the article. We got a little unlucky in a couple of spots with the Cardinals game going to OT to wreck the Murray Under and Jalen Hurts getting injured. 

With two weeks left in the regular season, we’ll try and finish strong. 

For a full recap of how the individual NFL player props did, see the bottom of this piece (or click here).

I’ll again be adding in a few Underdog Pick’em lineups at the end of the article.

Just like usual, you can find all my Week 17 bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props …

Top Five Player Props For NFL Week 17

Aidan O’Connell Over 32.5 Passing Attempts 

  • Odds: -105 (BetMGM)
  • Projection: 33.0

I initially bet O’Connell’s passing yardage over this week when it opened at 220.5 and placed the bet in our Free NFL Bet Tracker. His total has increased since then to the 226 range and while I would still play the over at that level, for a straight play I think it’s better to look to his usage props at this point for better value. 

Since coming back in Week 13 O’Connell has played two full games. He threw the ball 35 times against the Chiefs (for 340 yards) and then dropped back 38 times against the Jaguars last week, throwing for 257 yards in a game where the Raiders led for decent portions. 

The efficiency with O’Connell still isn’t great as he’s averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt but he’s also a competent pocket passer who plays in an offense built around the short passing game. 

The Raiders rank 31st in success rate via the run and simply have no early-down rusher worth committing to. That’s led to O’Connell being allowed to unleash via the air to his best receivers like Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers, regardless of the score. 

Given how poorly the Raiders rush the ball I’m also doubtful that facing a weaker rush defense like New Orleans changes their game plan much if at all this week. 

I’d be fine playing the over down to -120 if needed in this spot.

Breece Hall Over 71.5 Rush/Rec Yards

  • Odds: -115 (Caesars)
  • Projection: 76.0

Hall practiced in full last week with no injury designation and saw a full workload vs the Rams. The results weren’t awe-inspiring but you have to credit the Rams stingy defensive line for much of that. The Jets RB ended the day with 14 carries and 52 rush yards, adding 5 receptions (6 targets) and 38 receiving yards. 

As I alluded to earlier, the more important factor was Hall’s usage. Via our Utilization Report, he played on 79% of the snaps, took 70% of the team’s carries, and posted a healthy 14% target share.

 

Hall got in another full week of practice and should be in for a big workload against the Bills, in a division rivalry game where the Jets can play spoilers.

While I’m not opposed to betting the over on Hall’s rushing or receiving props this week, rather than choosing, taking the over on his rush/rec yards in this spot feels more than appropriate. Buffalo is a terrific matchup for opposing RBs as they’ve allowed 4.6 yards per carry (ninth-worst in the league) and have ceded the most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season.

Hall should be able to do his damage in multiple areas this week and with the game meaning something to the Jets veterans and coaches – who would love to knock Josh Allen and the Bills down a peg before the playoffs – he should get plenty of opportunities.

I’d be fine playing this up to 72.5.

Tucker Kraft Over 33.5 Receiving Yards

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 41.0

I still think the market is generally underrating Tucker Kraft and his role in this Green Bay offense. While many of Jordan Love’s WRs go off with totals in the high 40s most weeks, Kraft’s yardage total is again sitting in the low 30s despite him seeing some of the best usage among Green Bay’s receivers as a whole.

Over his last three starts, Kraft has now posted target shares of 23%, 28%, 8% and 16%. While his targets do fluctuate a little he also has the ability to smash these low numbers on just one or two catches.

This week he’ll face a Vikings defense in a dome against whom he caught six passes on nine targets in Week 4. While he may not approach 9 targets again, with Christian Watson banged up and potentially out for this game it won’t be shocking to see him get more primary targeting. 

The Vikings being a top rush defense should also force Green Bay into more dropbacks this week, which again, favors a big game from Kraft. I’d be fine playing this one up to 34.5 if needed.

Rico Dowdle Over 2.5 Receptions  

  • Odds: -130 (bet365)
  • Projection: 2.9

The number on this line is a little short but I don’t think the Cowboys will have much choice but to use Dowdle more in the receiving game in this matchup. CeeDee Lamb is out for the season and they have no legitimate number-one receiving threat to replace him.

Given how solid the Eagles' secondary is this should lead to lots more dump-off attempts to Dowdle who is a competent receiving back and has caught 3 or more passes already this season in eight of 15 games played. 

Dowdle is really only coming off the field in the red zone where the Cowboys (for some reason) prefer to use Ezekiel Elliott for short carries, but that won’t affect his passing usage at all. Instead, I’d almost expect the Cowboys to feature Dowdle more as a receiver in this matchup and perhaps even give Elliott more rushing work to keep him fresher.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson Longest Completion Under 29.5 Yards

  • Odds: -113 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: N/A

This one makes sense on numerous levels.

First, we have a run-first QB in Dorian Thompson-Robinson who has averaged 3.8 yards per attempt on 64 pass attempts this season. Thompson-Robinson did have a 29-yard completion last week vs the Bengals but is generally one of if not the most limited starting QB in the league at the moment.

In fact, for his career, which consists of 180 pass attempts on four full starts and some relief work, DTR has never completed a pass longer than 29.0 yards.

Second, he’s playing a solid secondary in the Dolphins who tend to be tough on opposing WRs, having allowed the fifth-least yards to the position this season. That’s likely going to leave DTR dinking and dunking a lot (his specialty) when dropping back.

Miami has been beaten downfield by elite QBs but also managed to hold recent opponents in Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud under 30.0 yards for their longest completion.

Third, it’s not like DTR is a lock to complete this game. He’s been banged up a little already and the Browns do have Bailey Zappe, a competent backup QB to insert if needed (they may also have Jameis Winston available if healthy). 

Fourth, the weather. As of now, the forecast for Cleveland has showers and winds up to 15 mph projected for game time.

I’ll be honest, I will disappointed if this one doesn't hit. 

Week 17 Underdog Pick’em Plays

Quick Note. You can find all my weekly Underdog plays in our FREE Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season. 

Keep checking there for more plays as the season wears on.

Underdog Card 1 (3-way, 4.8x multiplier)

 

Underdog Card #2 (3-way, 4.58x multiplier) 

 

Underdog Card #3 (5-way, 16.5x multiplier) 

 

Week 16 recap

Head over to our NFL Player Prop table to compare our in-house projections to prices around the market to identify the biggest edges on the slate!

Week 17 Player Prop Projections