Matt LaMarca projects the Early Betting Odds and Picks for Week 18.
One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 18 and look for some opportunities to find value.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
- Pick: Vikings +3.5
Current Line: -105; FanDuel - Bet To: +3.5 (-115)
It feels borderline unfair that one of these two teams is going to be the No. 5 seed. The Lions have been one of the best teams in football all season, and the Vikings have been just one step behind. Whoever comes out of this contest victorious will earn the No. 1 seed in the conference, regardless of what happens with the Lions vs. the 49ers on Monday night. There is technically still a chance for the Eagles to get involved, but they would need the Lions to lose to the 49ers and then the two NFC North foes to tie in Week 18.
The Vikings haven’t garnered nearly the same attention as the Lions this season, but it’s possible that they’re the better team at this very moment. Detroit’s defense has been absolutely decimated by injuries down the stretch. They have nearly two dozen players on IR, and while a few might be able to return at some point during the playoffs, they’re not expected to get any help in Week 17. Alex Anzalone appears to be the closest to a return, but they’ve yet to open his 21-day practice window.
The Lions’ defense wasn’t a huge issue last week vs. the Bears, surrendering just 17 points in a comfortable win. However, they allowed nearly 400 yards of total offense, and the Bills absolutely demolished them the week prior. Since Week 13, the team is 30th in EPA per play defensively.
That’s not going to get the job done in the playoffs, and it won’t help them vs. the Vikings, either. Minnesota has been rolling of late, racking up 430 yards and 27 points vs. the Packers in Week 17. They’ve now scored at least 23 points in seven straight games, and they’ve had at least 27 in four of their past five.
The Vikings have had an elite defense all season, and they went toe-to-toe with the Lions in their first meeting this season. They suffered a two-point home loss, but that was back when the Lions’ defense was significantly healthier. Ultimately, getting more than a field goal here feels like the right call, and I’m willing to lock it in early.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
- Pick: Patriots +3.0
- Current Line: -110; DraftKings
- Bet To: +3.0 (-120) or ML (+105)
The Patriots were absolutely walloped by the Chargers on Saturday, and they have nothing left to play for but pride. Well, not exactly. The Patriots would have the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft if the season ended today, thanks to the Giants pulling off an upset over the Colts on Sunday.
The question is—will the Patriots “tank” this contest? My guess is no. This is a young team that already has a franchise quarterback, so I don’t think the front office is going to get super creative with some of their roster decisions. They should have close to their best team on the field, and the players who are active will undoubtedly be giving their all.
You know who probably won’t give their all this week? The Bills. They’ve secured the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoffs, which sets up a home contest during the Wild Card round. They will not have the luxury of a bye week, so expect them to use Week 18 to get some of their regulars some much-needed rest.
That should include Josh Allen. Allen has had an MVP-like campaign, and he was responsible for another 3 touchdowns last week vs. the Jets. It brings him to 41 total for the year, and he’s now eclipsed 40 for three straight seasons.
If Allen gets the day off, it will be up to Mitch Trubisky to cover the spread. Not only that, he’ll likely be playing without some of his top pass catchers and offensive linemen. That is not a good formula for covering the spread as a favorite. Trubisky is merely 11-15-1 ATS for his career as a favorite, and his team has been actively trying to win those contests. That’s probably not going to be the case on Sunday.
This line initially opened at Patriots +3.5 on FanDuel, and it was immediately bet down to +1.5. There is still a +3.0 on DraftKings, but if that’s gone by the time you’re reading this, I’d probably pivot to the moneyline. I think anything better than New England +105 is playable, so make sure to shop around before locking in a wager.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
- Pick: Ravens -17.0
Current Line: -110; DraftKings - Bet To: Infinity
OK, so I probably wouldn’t actually bet this number to infinity, but something like -20.5? I honestly think that’s playable at the right price. That’s how poorly Dorian Thompson-Robinson has played.
We’ve seen a lot of guys get snaps at the QB position this season, but DTR is by far the worst. He entered Week 17 with just 1 touchdown pass and 9 interceptions for his career, and he averaged just 1.73 adjusted yards per attempt. Unsurprisingly, he struggled mightily against the Dolphins, completing just 24-of-47 passes for 170 yards, zero touchdowns, and 1 interception.
How in the world is this guy supposed to compete with Lamar Jackson? Jackson might not win the MVP this year, but I think he probably should. He’s had the best season of his career, racking up 39 touchdown passes with 4 interceptions while providing his usual electric production on the ground.
The Browns have now managed just 9 points in two games with DTR, while the Ravens have the best offense in football. Baltimore also needs a win to ensure an AFC North crown and a home game in the first round of the playoffs, and it could be out for a little revenge after losing to the Browns in Cleveland.
Playing a spread this large always comes with some backdoor risk, and it’s possible that Jackson and the starters exit early if they do build a big lead. That said, I’m not sure it really matters. The Dolphins were without their starting quarterback and No. 2 wide receiver in Week 17, and they still managed to beat the Browns by 17 points.
This number has already gotten to 17.5 on FanDuel, and I see no reason why it would stop there. As long as Thompson-Robinson is under center, there’s basically no way to set this line high enough to make me pass on the Ravens.
