Welcome to the second edition of the 2024 Bad Beats roundup, a weekly column where Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich dissect the worst betting beats from around the NFL. 

As much as we espouse the long-term profitability of our FantasyLife+ tools and projections, we, like anyone, also get caught up in the moment when things go against us (this is a fancy way of saying we like to whine like toddlers when we lose… especially on the bets we should have won!). 

Week 2 was certainly an interesting one. Some big-time favorites didn’t just fail to cover, but lost the game outright (more on that later). Teams that were expected to be great — like the Ravens and Bengals — are now 0-2, while teams that weren’t expected to contend like the Vikings, Saints and Steelers are 2-0.

If you want a more specific breakdown of some of the biggest missed fantasy opportunities, also make sure to read Ian Hartitz’s “Sheesh Report,” a weekly feature of heartbreaking videos and stats, like George Pickens being this close to a big game in Week 2:

Ulrich’s Week 2 Bad Beat (No.1): Tank Dell lied to us

Heading into Week 2, I was fully ready to feed my small family of four (five if you count my dog) on Tank Dell overs. He only had three catches for 40 yards in Week 1 but saw seven targets and accumulated 105 air yards in that game against the Colts. 

His prop for Week 2 opened at a ridiculously low 44.5 receiving yards, and I bet the over right away, a wager I logged in our free NFL bet tracker once it came out. The total then skyrocketed to 51.5 (making me feel even better about my early bet) and there was also this lovely graphic that NBC posted to get us more hype about the potential Dell breakout game

Then the game started. The Texans didn’t work in Dell on the initial couple of drives and when they finally did, it was as a runner. Woof. 

Still, as we headed into the second half, I didn’t lose hope. 

I watched as the Texans made a stop and got the ball back quickly at the start of the second half. They ran a couple of plays and then on third and 4, Stroud dropped back with solid protection. He scanned the field and after a moment or two saw exactly what I saw — Dell running deep with a step on two defenders. 

Booyah. This wasn’t just going for 45 or 50 yards — this was going to be a 67-yard TD. 

Stroud didn't hesitate and launched it. A perfect moonball where only Dell could get it. I didn’t have champagne ready, but if I did I would've had time to pop it and pour myself a glass. Everything looked great — right up until it was time for Dell to catch the ball. 

Look, it’s not easy to catch a football running at warp speed with two people chasing you, but Dell probably catches this 90% of the time — and the fact he didn’t this time put a huge dent in my bankroll in Week 2. 

Bad beat, or just bad luck, all I know is that the next time a player appears on some kind of big fancy NBC graphic, telling me they are “built” for primetime, I will be betting the under. 

LaMarca’s Week 2 Bad Beat (No.1): Little Giants

It’s never a good thing when you make history in a losing effort. That was the case for the Giants on Sunday. They became the first team in NFL history to lose a game when they scored at least three touchdowns and their opponent scored zero.

How in the world does that happen?

For the Giants, it started on the very first play of the game. Kicker Graham Gano was injured while attempting to make a tackle on the opening kickoff. That play ended up getting negated by a penalty — just to rub salt in the wound a bit — but it was the last time Gano was seen all day (he'll be out at least a few weeks, the team announced Monday).

After their first touchdown, they let punter Jamie Gillan try the extra point. He shanked it right, and that was the last kick they’d let Gillan attempt. They went for two-point conversions after their other two touchdowns, and they failed to convert either.

That brought the Giants to 18 total points, which perfectly matched the Commanders’ six field goals near the end of the fourth quarter. The Giants proceeded to march down the field once again, getting into field goal range with less than three minutes left on the clock.

Of course, instead of trotting out their punter for a field goal attempt, they chose to go for it on fourth down. Daniel Jones targeted Malik Nabers for the 18th and final time, throwing a perfect pass that should’ve put the Giants in business for a game-winning score. Instead, the ball bounced harmlessly to the turf:

Nabers had an AWESOME game on Sunday, finishing with 10 catches, 127 yards and his first touchdown, but that drop was a heart-breaker. The Commanders got the ball back with two minutes to go, marched down the field and kicked their seventh field goal of the day for the win.

I was personally lucky enough to grab the Giants at +3.0 when the lines were first released, but they closed as just 1.5-point underdogs. To anyone who had the Giants at less than a field goal — like this bettor, for example — you have my condolences.

Ulrich’s Bad Beat (No.2): Bengals – what you doing?

To quote the great, late Dennis Green, the Chiefs were exactly who the Bengals thought they were… and they let them off the hook. 

Cincinnati had the champs on the ropes the entire game. They forced Patrick Mahomes into one of his worst games as a pro, limiting him to just 6.0 YPA and 151 yards, while also picking off the three-time Super Bowl champion twice. 

Joe Burrow picked apart an extremely tough Chiefs secondary, throwing for 258 yards and two TDs, ending the day with a 103.7 QB Rating. Everything about the stats from this game says the Bengals should have won… except they didn’t. 

Ja’Marr Chase took a brutal unsportsmanlike conduct penalty late in the game which stalled the Bengals as they were driving, forcing them to settle for a FG. Still, even with that blunder, their defense held and the Bengals had a 25-22 lead with the Chiefs facing a fourth and 16 with less than a minute remaining. 

Any other team you probably could have shut off the TV and just gotten caught up on all the housework you failed to do while watching six-plus hours of football. However, this is the Chiefs we are talking about, and you don’t count the Chiefs as dead until the the coffin is fully sealed. 

We can debate whether or not this was PI all day (the rules say it probably was), but the bottom line is that the Bengals shot themselves in the foot in this game — twice down the stretch — and blew the win. 

I took the Bengals on the spread (they still covered easily at +6.0), but they were also my favorite underdog play for the week that I gave out on our early week Betting Life Show. 

I’ll take the small W, but no victory laps for me this Wednesday. All I can hope for now is that Cincinnati gets a shot at redeeming my lost ML bet against the Chiefs in the playoffs. 

LaMarca’s Week 2 Bad Beat (No. 2): Another survivor bloodbath 

Week 1 saw the Bengals knock out roughly 35% of entries in the big survivor pools. That was bad, but what happened in Week 2 was arguably even worse.

The Ravens were the biggest culprit. They were the biggest favorites of the week at home vs. the Raiders, we had them as one of the picks in our weekly Survivor column, and they managed to build a 10-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. They didn’t just look like they were going to win; they could potentially cover the spread.

Instead, the Raiders went on a 14-0 run to close things out, sending the Ravens to 0-2 for the year.

For those who were fading the chalk with the Ravens? The Lions and Cowboys stood out as popular alternatives. The Lions closed as eight-point home favorites vs. the Buccaneers, while the Cowboys were 6.5-point home favorites vs. the Saints.

Unfortunately, both teams fell flat on their faces. The Cowboys were absolutely boat-raced, giving up 35 points to the Saints in the first half alone. The Lions managed to outgain the Buccaneers by nearly 250 yards, but they somehow couldn’t get the job done.

Add it all up, and it was another purge week in survivor pools. Between those three teams, nearly 40% of the remaining field was wiped out in the big Circa contest:

The only people who have been truly safe through the first two weeks have been those who simply faded the Panthers. It will be interesting to see if that becomes the default strategy for those remaining in Week 3.