Before I get into my Week 2 NFL player props, let's take a quick look at Week 1.

With standard one-unit wagering, that comes out to 3-1 (+1.87 units). Not too shabby.

You'll notice that I was 3-0 on unders and 0-1 on my one over. I won't draw any conclusions from a sample of four bets … but this is your annual reminder that the under tends to be the sharp side in most prop markets.

Reminder: Each week in this piece I'll highlight some of my favorite player props on the board, but for all my Week 2 bets check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker for free NFL bets, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter … which is also free.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access my weekly fantasy football rankings and NFL player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Here are five of my favorite player props for Week 2.

Odds and projections are as of Fri. 9/13 at 6 am ET.

Devin Singletary Under 14.5 Carries

  • Odds: -120 (Caesars)
  • My Projection: 11.8

Singletary played 71% of the snaps for the Giants in Week 1, but he had just a 56% rush share, which he converted to only 10 carries (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Singletary is the lead back, but that doesn't mean he'll get much work on the ground.

The Giants are +1.5 road underdogs, so they might not have much of a run-friendly game script anyway, but even if they do they might not be incentivized to run the ball, given that the Commanders have something of a pass funnel defense, which makes sense if you look at their personnel: The strength of the unit is the interior run-stuffing combo of DTs Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, and the weakness is the secondary.

Just last week the Commanders defense was No. 7 in defensive rush EPA (-0.216) and No. 32 in dropback EPA (0.689, per RBs Don't Matter).

Loath as the Giants might be to let QB Daniel Jones pass the ball, they will likely need to air it out if they trail—and even if they lead they might opt to throw more than usual instead of run into the teeth of a capable rush defense.

If you put that all together, it makes for what's likely to be a disappointing day for Singletary … and hopefully a profitable day for us.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 81.5 Receiving Yards

  • Odds: -115 (BetRivers)
  • My Projection: 76.5

The Lions are now -7.5 home favorites, so they could rely on their rushing attack for much of the game, which could mean diminished statistics for all the pass catchers.

Additionally … and just hear me out … what if there's the possibility that St. Brown is no longer the top receiver on the team?

Teammate Jameson Williams (whom I highlighted in my Week 2 Freedman's Favorites fantasy article) had an unproductive first two years in the league: As a rookie, he spent most of his season recovering from a knee injury suffered in his final college game, and as a sophomore, he missed time due to a suspension.

But he was selected No. 12 overall in the 2022 NFL draft—after the Lions already had St. Brown and as if they hoped he would eventually overtake the slot man as the team's top option—and in Week 1 he might have finally done so.

It's only one game, but in the season opener Williams had a career-high 85% snap rate, and with that playing time he sure looked like the No. 1 pass catcher.

  • Williams: 5-121-1 receiving | 9 targets | 94% route rate | 27% target rate
  • St. Brown: 3-13-0 receiving | 6 targets | 100% route rate | 19% target rate

And even if Williams isn't the top receiver, it's fair to say at a minimum that St. Brown now has significant competition for targets, especially since TE Sam LaPorta (81% route rate, 19% target rate in Week 1) could also demand more volume as progresses in his second season.

St. Brown had a studly 1,515-yard receiving last year on 164 targets in 16 games. If Week 1 is any indication, he might struggle to approach those numbers this year.

Malik Willis Over 0.5 INTs

  • Odds: -145 (DraftKings)
  • My Projection: 0.9 INTs, -277.7 odds

The handicap for this bet is simple: I've seen Willis play football.

He's not good.

Since he entered the league as a third-rounder in the 2022 draft, 85 QBs have played at least 50 snaps.

Of those 85, he is No. 79 in completion percentage over expected (-9.6%) and No. 83 in EPA (-0.433).

Despite the Titans attempting to limit him as a passer and hide him within the offense, he has still managed to throw three INTs in his three NFL starts on just 49 attempts.

Last year, Sam Howell led the league with 21 INTs, and he had a 3.4% INT rate. And Mac Jones had an NFL-worst 3.5% INT rate, which he transformed into 12 INTs in 11 starts.

Now compare those terrible INT rates to Willis' 4.5% career mark. All of a sudden, Howell and Jones don't look too bad. That's the kind of QB that Willis is—the kind that makes terrible passers look almost passable.

Willis joined the Packers in the preseason so the team will undoubtedly attempt to minimize his role and scheme up a slew of easy completions for him.

That's a nice idea in theory.

But if history has proven anything to this point, it's that—even with just a few pass attempts in a QB-friendy scheme—Willis will likely find a way to put the ball in a defender's hands.

Najee Harris Anytime TD

  • Odds: +185 (DraftKings)
  • My Projection: 0.5 TDs, +146.6 odds

It might be bold to bet that a guy on a team that didn't score a TD last week will score one this week.

I don't know. I don't think about stuff like that. You just gotta live your life—without fear. Without regret. And maybe one day without a house—because you thought it was a good idea to bet that an offense led by OC Arthur Smith would produce TDs. Doesn't matter. Nothing matters.

In the new system installed by Smith, Harris played in a split backfield last week, earning only 58% of the snaps and 54% of the team's carries.

That doesn't seem great.

But then keep in mind that Smith's dream of the perfect NFL offense is a run-heavy attack that features big plodders moving large piles of bodies for the minimally acceptable amount of yardage on an every-down basis.

And that means that last week, despite being in a timeshare, Harris still had 20 carries. And perhaps more importantly he had 100% of the team's carries inside the five-yard line.

The Steelers are -2.5 favorites on the road against the Broncos, who just allowed 146 yards rushing last week. Smith will attempt to establish the ground game at every opportunity, and that should give Harris a decent chance to find the end zone.

Dak Prescott Under 3.5 Carries

  • Odds: -135 (DraftKings)
  • My Projection: 2.8

I first put this in the Bet Tracker at -120, but I still like it at the current odds.

Prescott is no longer the runner he used to be. Early in his career (2016-20), before his season-ending (and I would suggest career-altering) leg injury in 2020, he had 3.8 carries per game. Since then (2021-24), he has averaged just 3.2.

In no post-2020 season has Prescott had an aggressive rushing profile.

  • 2024 (1 game): 4% designed rush rate | 0% scramble rate
  • 2023 (18 games): 6% designed rush rate | 5% scramble rate
  • 2022 (14 games): 6% designed rush rate | 4% scramble rate
  • 2021 (17 games): 6% designed rush rate | 3% scramble rate

At this point, Prescott's a pocket passer. Last week in a big 33-17 road win against the Browns he had just one carry, and I think the Cowboys could have similar team success this week as -6 home favorites against the Saints.

If the Cowboys get out to a big lead, they could have a controlled offensive attack, especially in the second half, that's heavy on RB runs on early downs, short passes on third downs—and no QB runs whatsoever.

There's always a chance that we see Prescott take a few knees at the end of the game to drive his total to the over. Then again, there's also a chance that backup QB Cooper Rush could be the one taking those end-of-game snaps.

Either way, my projection points to the under.